Identifier
Created
Classification
Origin
09TASHKENT559
2009-04-22 10:10:00
UNCLASSIFIED
Embassy Tashkent
Cable title:
TASHKENT TIDBITS APRIL 22, 2009
how-toVZCZCXRO5894 RR RUEHAST RUEHBI RUEHCI RUEHDBU RUEHIK RUEHLH RUEHLN RUEHNEH RUEHPOD RUEHPW RUEHSK RUEHVK RUEHYG DE RUEHNT #0559/01 1121009 ZNR UUUUU ZZH R 221010Z APR 09 FM AMEMBASSY TASHKENT TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC 0792 INFO ALL SOUTH AND CENTRAL ASIA COLLECTIVE CIS COLLECTIVE NATO EU COLLECTIVE RUEHNT/AMEMBASSY TASHKENT
UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 TASHKENT 000559
SIPDIS
E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: PREL PGOV ECON KIRF SOCI PHUM KISL KPAO UZ
SUBJECT: TASHKENT TIDBITS APRIL 22, 2009
SENSITIVE BUT UNCLASSIFIED - PROTECT ACCORDINGLY
MFA Water Man
-------------
UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 TASHKENT 000559
SIPDIS
E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: PREL PGOV ECON KIRF SOCI PHUM KISL KPAO UZ
SUBJECT: TASHKENT TIDBITS APRIL 22, 2009
SENSITIVE BUT UNCLASSIFIED - PROTECT ACCORDINGLY
MFA Water Man
--------------
1. (SBU) We attended a roundtable on transboundary water issues at
the Oliy Majlis on March 4. The two hour session was chaired by
Sadyk Safaev, Chairman of the Senate Foreign Affairs Committee and
former Ambassador to the U.S. The roundtable produced nothing new
in terms of policy; all speakers supported President Karimov's
earlier statements on regional water issues. The only new item was
the news that the MFA has created a new office to cover
water-energy issues in Central Asia. The new office is headed by
Mr. Khakimov, former Uzbek Ambassador to Israel and one time head
of the MFA's CIS Affairs department.
License and Registration, Again Please
--------------
2. (U) We previously reported that poloff's private driver was
stopped and ticketed by the Tashkent traffic police (reftel). On
April 9 our non-diplomatic vehicle was pulled over again,
ostensibly for running a red light. Two emboffs in the car agreed
that the light - which blinks here prior to turning red - had not
yet turned. Unlike the previous spot fine of about USD 2 for a
seatbelt infraction, on this occasion the driver had to shell out
the equivalent of USD 20 in local currency from his glove box stash
for such fines. This is a crushing blow for an average Uzbek -
higher than the official monthly minimum wage - and the driver was
left visibly shaken. A receipt was written out for the payment,
but there is little confidence that the full amount will find its
way into official coffers. It was made clear that if the fine was
not paid on the spot it would be higher in the court. There is
also a troubling double standard that the law does not apply to
all, as another car was stopped while we were waiting, whereupon
that driver smiled, shook hands, apparently explained his
connections, and drove off.
World Vision Frustrated by Operating Environment
-------------- ---
3. (U) Poloff ran into a Tashkent-based official from World Vision,
which is implementing programs focusing on HIV and help for
disabled children. The organization is frustrated by the slow pace
of cooperation from the government, even after it adopted the UN
Convention on the Rights of the Disabled. World Vision has
continued problems with visas and accreditations for its staff and
is unable to implement projects outside of Tashkent. The official
was also disappointed that Uzbekistan refuses to allow NGOs such as
Handicapped International to operate here.
Russia Threatens Protective Measures Against Uzbek Cars
-------------- --------------
4. (SBU) In an indication of the limits of Uzbekistan's import
substitution and conversion policies that seek to promote the
country's exports while keeping imports out, Russia's AvtoVAZ has
apparently appealed to the Russian Minister of Economy to enact
protective excise taxes against UzDaewoo (GM) imports. Uzbekistan
exported over 90,000 vehicles to Russia last year, while importing
only 9,000 AvtoVAZ Lada vehicles. The local Lada representative
says he is unable to import additional vehicles for sale in
Uzbekistan because he cannot buy the US dollars necessary for their
purchase. Exports from Uzbekistan's auto industry generate roughly
15% of GDP and Russia is the largest market. Uzbekistan may just be
TASHKENT 00000559 002 OF 002
finding out that replicating an East Asian export-driven growth
model isn't so easy when the economy of its major trading partner
is in recession.
GOU Continues to Talk Up the Economy
--------------
5. (SBU) Thanks to the wise policies of President Islam Karimov,
whose recent book on avoiding the ill effects of the economic
crisis gripping the rest of the world is receiving world-wide
acclaim, the Uzbek economy continues to hum along nicely - at least
according to Uzbekistan's government controlled media. Along with
praise for Karimov's book from various Western academics (few or
none of whom are actually economists),the GOU is boasting of 7.9
percent GDP growth in the first quarter of 2009. We believe this
figure is reasonably accurate, although it reflects constant prices
in Uzbek soums. The soum, however, has depreciated lately against
the dollar, with the spread between the official and unofficial
exchange rates widening to nearly 30 percent.
Taxi Drivers Weigh In on Economy
--------------
6. (SBU) Tashkent has few official taxis and many drivers will pick
up fares. Among the older taxi drivers, many were professional
truck drivers during the Soviet period for firms that went
bankrupt. These men have been driving their old Zhigulis and
Moskviches as taxis since independence. When asked about the
effects of the economic crisis on Uzbekistan, the typical response
is, "Crisis? We've been living with a crisis for 18 years!"
However, there are others, often with slightly newer cars, who tell
a different story and are only picking up fares to make ends meet
after becoming unemployed. Anecdotally, their numbers seem to have
increased in recent months. One driver recently said that he had a
construction materials business that was thriving for the past 5
years, but that he is now driving a taxi because his company hasn't
sold anything for 2 months. This seems to square with reports that
real estate prices have dropped by as much as 50 percent in
Tashkent and would indicate that the Uzbek economy could be headed
for more trouble than the GOU wishes to admit or believe.
IDEC Invitation Declined
--------------
7. (SBU) On April 14 we received a diplomatic note turning down an
invitation from the DEA for National Security Service (NSS)
counternarcotics officials to travel to Cancun, Mexico for the
International Drug Enforcement Conference (IDEC) in June. This was
disappointing since an NSS officer did just return from a regional
conference in St. Petersburg, Russia with DEA sponsorship. It may
simply be that Mexico is too far afield for the ever-suspicious
security services, and we hope the decision is not an indication of
the Government of Uzbekistan's stance on our proposed Embassy
Counternarcotics Section, which will be staffed with openly
accredited DEA Agents. A response is, as is typical in our
dealings with the host government, overdue.
BUTCHER
SIPDIS
E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: PREL PGOV ECON KIRF SOCI PHUM KISL KPAO UZ
SUBJECT: TASHKENT TIDBITS APRIL 22, 2009
SENSITIVE BUT UNCLASSIFIED - PROTECT ACCORDINGLY
MFA Water Man
--------------
1. (SBU) We attended a roundtable on transboundary water issues at
the Oliy Majlis on March 4. The two hour session was chaired by
Sadyk Safaev, Chairman of the Senate Foreign Affairs Committee and
former Ambassador to the U.S. The roundtable produced nothing new
in terms of policy; all speakers supported President Karimov's
earlier statements on regional water issues. The only new item was
the news that the MFA has created a new office to cover
water-energy issues in Central Asia. The new office is headed by
Mr. Khakimov, former Uzbek Ambassador to Israel and one time head
of the MFA's CIS Affairs department.
License and Registration, Again Please
--------------
2. (U) We previously reported that poloff's private driver was
stopped and ticketed by the Tashkent traffic police (reftel). On
April 9 our non-diplomatic vehicle was pulled over again,
ostensibly for running a red light. Two emboffs in the car agreed
that the light - which blinks here prior to turning red - had not
yet turned. Unlike the previous spot fine of about USD 2 for a
seatbelt infraction, on this occasion the driver had to shell out
the equivalent of USD 20 in local currency from his glove box stash
for such fines. This is a crushing blow for an average Uzbek -
higher than the official monthly minimum wage - and the driver was
left visibly shaken. A receipt was written out for the payment,
but there is little confidence that the full amount will find its
way into official coffers. It was made clear that if the fine was
not paid on the spot it would be higher in the court. There is
also a troubling double standard that the law does not apply to
all, as another car was stopped while we were waiting, whereupon
that driver smiled, shook hands, apparently explained his
connections, and drove off.
World Vision Frustrated by Operating Environment
-------------- ---
3. (U) Poloff ran into a Tashkent-based official from World Vision,
which is implementing programs focusing on HIV and help for
disabled children. The organization is frustrated by the slow pace
of cooperation from the government, even after it adopted the UN
Convention on the Rights of the Disabled. World Vision has
continued problems with visas and accreditations for its staff and
is unable to implement projects outside of Tashkent. The official
was also disappointed that Uzbekistan refuses to allow NGOs such as
Handicapped International to operate here.
Russia Threatens Protective Measures Against Uzbek Cars
-------------- --------------
4. (SBU) In an indication of the limits of Uzbekistan's import
substitution and conversion policies that seek to promote the
country's exports while keeping imports out, Russia's AvtoVAZ has
apparently appealed to the Russian Minister of Economy to enact
protective excise taxes against UzDaewoo (GM) imports. Uzbekistan
exported over 90,000 vehicles to Russia last year, while importing
only 9,000 AvtoVAZ Lada vehicles. The local Lada representative
says he is unable to import additional vehicles for sale in
Uzbekistan because he cannot buy the US dollars necessary for their
purchase. Exports from Uzbekistan's auto industry generate roughly
15% of GDP and Russia is the largest market. Uzbekistan may just be
TASHKENT 00000559 002 OF 002
finding out that replicating an East Asian export-driven growth
model isn't so easy when the economy of its major trading partner
is in recession.
GOU Continues to Talk Up the Economy
--------------
5. (SBU) Thanks to the wise policies of President Islam Karimov,
whose recent book on avoiding the ill effects of the economic
crisis gripping the rest of the world is receiving world-wide
acclaim, the Uzbek economy continues to hum along nicely - at least
according to Uzbekistan's government controlled media. Along with
praise for Karimov's book from various Western academics (few or
none of whom are actually economists),the GOU is boasting of 7.9
percent GDP growth in the first quarter of 2009. We believe this
figure is reasonably accurate, although it reflects constant prices
in Uzbek soums. The soum, however, has depreciated lately against
the dollar, with the spread between the official and unofficial
exchange rates widening to nearly 30 percent.
Taxi Drivers Weigh In on Economy
--------------
6. (SBU) Tashkent has few official taxis and many drivers will pick
up fares. Among the older taxi drivers, many were professional
truck drivers during the Soviet period for firms that went
bankrupt. These men have been driving their old Zhigulis and
Moskviches as taxis since independence. When asked about the
effects of the economic crisis on Uzbekistan, the typical response
is, "Crisis? We've been living with a crisis for 18 years!"
However, there are others, often with slightly newer cars, who tell
a different story and are only picking up fares to make ends meet
after becoming unemployed. Anecdotally, their numbers seem to have
increased in recent months. One driver recently said that he had a
construction materials business that was thriving for the past 5
years, but that he is now driving a taxi because his company hasn't
sold anything for 2 months. This seems to square with reports that
real estate prices have dropped by as much as 50 percent in
Tashkent and would indicate that the Uzbek economy could be headed
for more trouble than the GOU wishes to admit or believe.
IDEC Invitation Declined
--------------
7. (SBU) On April 14 we received a diplomatic note turning down an
invitation from the DEA for National Security Service (NSS)
counternarcotics officials to travel to Cancun, Mexico for the
International Drug Enforcement Conference (IDEC) in June. This was
disappointing since an NSS officer did just return from a regional
conference in St. Petersburg, Russia with DEA sponsorship. It may
simply be that Mexico is too far afield for the ever-suspicious
security services, and we hope the decision is not an indication of
the Government of Uzbekistan's stance on our proposed Embassy
Counternarcotics Section, which will be staffed with openly
accredited DEA Agents. A response is, as is typical in our
dealings with the host government, overdue.
BUTCHER