Identifier
Created
Classification
Origin
09TASHKENT343
2009-03-23 11:19:00
CONFIDENTIAL
Embassy Tashkent
Cable title:  

IOM Predicts Slim Pickings for Uzbek Migrants and Increase

Tags:  PREL KTIP ELAB PHUM ECON KCRM PINR KCOR RS KZ UZ 
pdf how-to read a cable
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RR RUEHBI RUEHCI RUEHDBU RUEHLH RUEHPW
DE RUEHNT #0343/01 0821114
ZNY CCCCC ZZH
R 231119Z MAR 09
FM AMEMBASSY TASHKENT
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC 0643
INFO ALL SOUTH AND CENTRAL ASIA COLLECTIVE
CIS COLLECTIVE
RHEHAAA/NSC WASHINGTON DC
RUEAIIA/CIA WASHINGTON DC
RUEATRS/DEPT OF TREASURY WASHINGTON DC
RUEHHE/AMEMBASSY HELSINKI 0001
RUEHNT/AMEMBASSY TASHKENT
RUEHVEN/USMISSION USOSCE 0152
RUEKJCS/SECDEF WASHINGTON DC
C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 TASHKENT 000343 

SIPDIS SIPDIS
G/TIP FOR MEGAN HALL, SCA FOR JESSICA MAZZONE
ASTANA FOR ANTHONY BEAVER
USOSCE FOR ELIZABETH KAUFMAN
AMEMBASSY HELSINKI PASS TO AMCONSUL ST PETERSBURG
AMEMBASSY MOSCOW PASS TO AMCONSUL VLADIVOSTOK
AMEMBASSY MOSCOW PASS TO AMCONSUL YEKATERINBURG
AMEMBASSY ASTANA PASS TO USOFFICE ALMATY
AMEMBASSY NEW DELHI PASS TO AMCONSUL HYDERABAD

E.O. 12958: DECL: 2019-03-17
TAGS: PREL KTIP ELAB PHUM ECON KCRM PINR KCOR RS KZ UZ
SUBJECT: IOM Predicts Slim Pickings for Uzbek Migrants and Increase
in TIP Cases

REF: A.) USOSCE DAILY DIGEST, MARCH 11, 2009

CLASSIFIED BY: Timothy P Buckley, Second Secretary; REASON: 1.4(B),
(D)

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 TASHKENT 000343

SIPDIS SIPDIS
G/TIP FOR MEGAN HALL, SCA FOR JESSICA MAZZONE
ASTANA FOR ANTHONY BEAVER
USOSCE FOR ELIZABETH KAUFMAN
AMEMBASSY HELSINKI PASS TO AMCONSUL ST PETERSBURG
AMEMBASSY MOSCOW PASS TO AMCONSUL VLADIVOSTOK
AMEMBASSY MOSCOW PASS TO AMCONSUL YEKATERINBURG
AMEMBASSY ASTANA PASS TO USOFFICE ALMATY
AMEMBASSY NEW DELHI PASS TO AMCONSUL HYDERABAD

E.O. 12958: DECL: 2019-03-17
TAGS: PREL KTIP ELAB PHUM ECON KCRM PINR KCOR RS KZ UZ
SUBJECT: IOM Predicts Slim Pickings for Uzbek Migrants and Increase
in TIP Cases

REF: A.) USOSCE DAILY DIGEST, MARCH 11, 2009

CLASSIFIED BY: Timothy P Buckley, Second Secretary; REASON: 1.4(B),
(D)


1. (SBU) Summary: International Organization for Migration (IOM)
Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan Country Director Mahmoud Naderi told
poloff on February 10 that he expects the going to get tougher for
Uzbek labor migrants and that he foresees an increase in TIP cases
as desperate would-be workers seek any opportunities as well-paying
jobs in Kazakhstan and Russia dry up. While on February 25 the
European Bank for Reconstruction and Development (EBRD) on February
25 issued a report indicating that macroeconomic indicators for
Uzbekistan remain strong relative to other countries in the region,
there may be an increase in the number of TIP cases involving Uzbek
victims as tough times continue. End summary.


2. (SBU) In a meeting with poloff on February 10, Naderi told
poloff that he expects that the negative impact from legions of
under or unemployed migrant workers will be felt in earnest in late
March and April, when the winter break is over and many workers
will look forward to spring work abroad. Despite indications that
times are tougher, many migrant workers do not fully comprehend how
many jobs may have been lost in traditional destinations in Russia
and Kazakhstan. Naderi predicts that large numbers of workers will
still travel from Uzbekistan, as usual, in search of work yet may
find slim pickings or much lower compensation than they became

accustomed to.


3. (C) Naderi added that he believes criminal gangs will sense an
opportunity and take advantage of migrant workers' plights to make
attractive-sounding employment offers to lure them into vulnerable
situations. "The workers will not want to return home with empty
hands," he continued, "and will therefore take increased risks."
Thus, Naderi believes greater numbers of Uzbek migrant workers will
fall prey to trafficking schemes out of economic desperation.
Kazakhstan and Russia are predominantly labor exploitation
destinations, but the Kazakhstan-based Naderi said he already has
discerned more prostitution on the streets of Almaty and cautioned
that sex exploitation of Uzbeks abroad could also increase.


4. (SBU) According to the March 11 USOSCE Daily Digest, the Kazakh
Ambassador to the OSCE in Vienna said Kazakhstan is seeing an
outflow of temporary workers from Central Asia (presumably
including Uzbekistan, the more populous and poorer country to its
south),which contradicts the notion that Uzbek workers are still
heading north in large numbers as in previous years. A March 10
article on the website Uznews.net reports that lines remain long
heading north at the Uzbek-Kazakh border checkpoints, and while
there may be a slowdown in Russia and Kazakhstan, the article noted
that Uzbek workers believe the domestic situation is worse "and do
not even think of trying to find jobs at home." A February 10
article on the independent website fergana.ru cited the Federal
Migration Service of Russia as reporting that in January, 2009
there were double the number of foreign migrants in Russia compared
to the same time last year. The article also noted that although
workers exited Russia earlier at the end of 2008 than usual, in
2009 the arrival of workers began earlier than in the previous
year. This could be an indication that foreign migrants are
clamoring to line up work in anticipation of fewer positions and
stiff competition in the spring.


5. (C) Kazakhstan also noted in the OSCE on March 11 that in April
2009 it would be "taking actions to clamp down on illegal
migration." Naderi had also told poloff about such proposed plans
at the February 10 meeting, and he commented that "if countries
like Kazakhstan close their borders to migrants, it simply will not
work." He opined that such policies "will just cause corruption"
on the borders by empowering border guards and customs officials to
deny entry to migrants who otherwise do not require a visa to enter
Kazakhstan, which Naderi expects would promote widespread bribery.


6. (U) On February 25 the European Bank for Reconstruction and
Development (EBRD) invited members of the diplomatic corps for a
presentation by Rika Ishii of the Office of the Chief Economist of

TASHKENT 00000343 002 OF 002


its Transition Report for 2008. Following an estimated 9.0 percent
growth in GDP in Uzbekistan during 2008, the EBRD report projects
5.0 percent GDP growth in 2009, which is well ahead of the Central
Asia average of 2.3 percent expected growth for 2009 (and
Uzbekistan's performance was in turn better than the regional
average of 4.9 percent in 2008). Kazakhstan, by comparison, which
certainly had a much better economy to begin with, had 2.9 percent
GDP growth in 2008 and EBRD is projecting just 0.5 percent in 2009.
Uzbekistan's projected GDP growth in 2009 also is far rosier than
the average of 0.1 percent for all of the "transition countries"
included in the EBRD report.


7. (U) Ishii noted that Uzbekistan will be affected by the decrease
in cotton prices, but this is the only commodity that will be
adversely affected in 2009 according to the EBRD. Ishii added that
Uzbekistan's exports will fall due to the economic slowdown in
Russia, which accounts for 28 percent of Uzbek exports. EBRD data
indicates remittances, which amount to seven percent of
Uzbekistan's GDP, will also suffer. Nonetheless, Ishii concluded
that "Uzbekistan is in a relatively good position to weather the
impact" of the global economic crisis. Uzbekistan, due largely to
its isolation, is also well-insulated from the negative impacts of
international banking problems that have wreaked havoc elsewhere,
which the government was quick to portray as the result of its wise
economic policies. (Note: President Karimov even published a book
this month entitled "The World Financial-Economic Crisis and Ways
to Overcome it in the Uzbekistan Context," in which he boasts that
"the Uzbek model of economic reform has proven its efficiency."
However, Karimov also continues to publicly warn that even
Uzbekistan will not be able to completely avoid negative
consequences of the crisis. His Deputy Prime Minister and Minister
of Finance, Rustam Azimov, told visiting Asian Development Bank
Vice President Xiaoyu Zhao on March 23 that the President insists
on a package of "measures" designed to deal with negative policy
implications of the economic crisis. End note.)

Comment:
--------------


8. (C) Uzbekistan's macroeconomic indicators are relatively better
than others in the region, as the new EBRD data demonstrates.
Nevertheless, poverty remains endemic and a key question is whether
the typical Uzbek worker can get through tough times. Uzbek
migrants are likely not confident that the government will
successfully create jobs at home or expand social services, and
they will continue to vote with their feet and head anywhere -- but
primarily north -- in search of economic opportunities, even if
they are hearing that work may be scarce abroad, too. Fortunately,
the Government of Uzbekistan has made progress in raising public
awareness about trafficking in persons and prosecuting known
domestic offenders, but continued tough economic times may still
result in an increased number of TIP cases involving Uzbek victims.
NORLAND