UZBEKISTAN: WEATHER, CLIMATE, AND HYDROLOGY WORKSHOP GIVES

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 03 TASHKENT 002168

SENSITIVE
SIPDIS
DEPARTMENT FOR SCA/CEN
DEPARTMENT FOR OES/STC MICHAEL SCHENA AND OES/PCI BARBARA CATES
EMBASSY ASTANA FOR BRUCE HUDSPETH

E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: ECON PREL SENV TSPL UZ
SUBJECT: UZBEKISTAN: WEATHER, CLIMATE, AND HYDROLOGY WORKSHOP GIVES
HOPE FOR REGIONAL COOPERATION


1. (SBU). SUMMARY: On November 10-12 the Government of Uzbekistan
(GOU) hosted a Regional Workshop on Improving Weather, Climate, and
Hydrological Service Delivery and Reducing Vulnerability to
Disasters. The workshop's purpose was to discuss weather, climate,
and hydrological service delivery in Central Asia. Representatives
of the National Hydro-meteorological Services (NHMS) of the five
Central Asian countries signed the Workshop Protocol, a draft
Memorandum of Understanding (MoU),and a draft program of regional
initiatives aimed at improving hydro-meteorological service
delivery as well as increasing capacity to adapt to the changing
climate. The World Bank will serve as coordinator for the regional
initiatives, implementation of which is to begin no later than
December 2009. The proposed initiatives could help ease
long-standing tensions over water sharing in the region. END
SUMMARY.



STATUS OF NHMS IN CENTRAL ASIA

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2. (SBU) On November 10-12, Uzbekistan hosted a Regional Workshop
on Improving Weather, Climate, and Hydrological Service Delivery
and Reducing Vulnerability to Disasters in Central Asia and the
Caucasus. The European Commission, the UN office on International
Strategy for Disaster Reduction (UNISDR),the World Meteorological
Organization (WMO),and the World Bank (WB) sponsored the event.
Over 100 participants attended, including senior NHMS officials
from Afghanistan, Armenia, Azerbaijan, Georgia, Kazakhstan,
Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, and Uzbekistan as well as
representatives of donor agencies and international financial
institutions. (NOTE: Although the workshop ostensibly included
issues affecting the Caucasus, in fact only issues related to
Central Asia were discussed.)




3. (SBU) World Bank Senior Environmental Officer Vladimir Tsirkunov
opened the workshop with a general overview of NHMS in Central
Asia. He said that over the last 20 years massive underfunding has
left the region with deteriorating observation networks, outdated
equipment and technology, insufficient scientific and research
support, and a lack of trained specialists. As a result, regional
NHMSs lack the capacity to respond to basic national needs for data
and services, thereby making the region increasingly vulnerable to
natural disasters. He said that according to a recent WB study, a
6-30 million USD investment program would make it possible to
prevent economic losses amounting to between 5.8 and 23 million USD
annually.



COUNTRY PRESENTATIONS

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4. (SBU) Tajikistan NHMS head Mahmad Safarov said the
weather-dependent sectors in Tajikistan's economy account for 61.4
per cent of the country's GDP. He characterized his agency as
being in critical condition and said 6 million USD would be needed
to modernize the Tajik NHMS.




5. (SBU) Talgat Bigozhin, Deputy General Director of Kazakhstan's
NHMS, said that Kazakhstan needs 266 million USD to modernize its
NHMS. He stressed the importance of data sharing, transboundary
cooperation, joint studies on the impact of climate change, and
assessment of water resources utilizing an agreed methodology.




6. (SBU) Turkmen NHMS head Kakamurad Yazyev said his agency often
fails to meet the basic requirements of users for
hydro-meteorological data and information. He said an estimated 30
million USD is needed for modernization of the Turkmen NHMS.

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7. (SBU) Victor Chub, Director General of Uzbekistan's NHMS,
stressed the importance of modernizing the Uzbek NHMS for
hydro-meteorological safety forecasting and disaster risk
management. He said the main sources of potential natural
disasters in Uzbekistan are located outside the country in
neighboring Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan. Therefore, Chub continued,
it is important for the Uzbek NHMS to cooperate and closely
interact with Kyrgyz and Tajik NHMSs for collection, processing,
and dissemination of hydro-meteorological data. He informed that
the GOU has already allocated 10 million USD to strengthen the
technical capacity of the Uzbek NHMS, but he added that this is not
enough to cover all the needs. He said the Uzbek NHMS suffers from
brain drain, lack of specialists, and a weak system of personnel
training. Chub requested outside training assistance.



DONORS: RISK ASSESSMENT AND SUPPORT FOR NHMS MODERNIZATION

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8. (SBU) International and donor organization representatives
presented risk assessments and outlined their support for NHMS
modernization. Head of UNISDR's Asia and Pacific Regional
Coordination Office Praveen Pardeshi said earthquakes are the
dominant disaster risk in Central Asia, followed by floods,
landslides, and drought. Epidemics and transportation and
industrial accidents are also significant. During the last twenty
years (1988-2007),177 disasters have caused 36,463 deaths. Of
these reported disasters, 19 percent were earthquakes, 25 percent
floods, 13 percent landslides, and 3 percent drought. Earthquakes
caused the greatest number of deaths: 32,834.




9. (SBU) Pardeshi continued that climate change models for Central
Asia predict a temperature increase of 4 to 6 degrees Celsius over
the next 80 years. One consequence will be decreased water
availability and the potential for severe droughts.




10. (SBU) Pardeshi said that UNISDR, in partnership with the WB and
WMO, is implementing a Central Asia and Caucasus Disaster Risk
Management Initiative (CAC-DRM) that focuses on three areas: (i)
coordination of disaster mitigation, preparedness and response;
(ii) financing of disaster losses, reconstruction and recovery, and
disaster risk transfer instruments such as catastrophe insurance
and weather derivatives; and (iii) hydro-meteorological
forecasting, data sharing and early warning.




11. (SBU) Matthias Anderegg, head of the Regional Disaster
Reduction Program of the Swiss Agency for Development and
Cooperation (SDC),reported on his agency's support of improved
hydro-meteorological data generation, flow, and flood forecasts.
The SDC project provides for rehabilitating and equipping at least
60 observation platforms in the flow formation zones of the
Syrdarya and Amudarya rivers, rehabilitating up to ten snow
metering routes in the Amudarya river basin, and providing hardware
and software tools for hydrological data processing and short and
long-term flow forecasting. The current phase of the project also
aims to modernize the communication centers at each NHMS to improve
data exchange between them and the key water users in Central Asia.





12. (SBU) Alexander Kalashnikov from USAID/Uzbekistan outlined the
US Government's technical assistance to Central Asian NHMSs.
During 2000-2005 USAID supported programs to improve reliability of
hydrological data collection and processing. USAID procured and
installed High Resolution Picture Terminal (HRPT) computer
processing for downloading NOAA satellite imagery in Uzbek and
Kazakh NHMSs. To improve meteorological data collection from
remote posts, 22 Campbell Scientific Instruments (CSI)were
installed: six in Kyrgyzstan, seven in Tajikistan, seven in

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Uzbekistan, and one each in Kazakhstan and Turkmenistan. USAID
also provided a "batch" hydro-meteorological data communication
system for 59 locations throughout Uzbekistan. One of USAID's most
successful regional activities was the installation of the Meteor
Burst Communications System that includes 39 data transmission
platforms in Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, and Uzbekistan.
This network has the capacity to expand further, even to include
China and Afghanistan. (NOTE: The various country delegations all
acknowledged and expressed their appreciation for USAID support in
NHMS improvements and modernization.)




13. (SBU) USAID's future plans include support for analysis of the
impact that global climate change is having on Central Asia's
hydrology. USAID also will support a comprehensive analysis of the
economic ramifications of optimized water-energy resource
utilization in the Syrdarya and Amudarya River Basins. An
important objective of USAID programs is to add substance to the
inter-state water/energy dialog among the Central Asian countries.



SIGNIFICANT OUTCOMES

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14. (SBU) Representatives of the NHMSs of the five Central Asian
countries signed the Workshop Protocol, a draft Memorandum of
Understanding (MoU),and a draft program of regional initiatives.
The MoU and draft program outline the main issues for the Central
Asian NHMSs. These include technical and organizational
improvements needed to increase data sharing capabilities, timely
monitoring of mountain snow-packs and glaciers, creation of
national meteorological centers, development of regional approaches
to quantitative forecasting for early warning and disaster risk
management, capacity development and training of NHMS personnel,
development of national data funds, and improvements needed for
better assessments of the impact of climate change.




15. (SBU) The MoU also asks that the Executive Committee of the
International Fund for Saving the Aral Sea (IFAS) be a partner in
these efforts, and it calls for revision of the 1999 Agreement
between the Central Asian NHMSs on hydro-meteorological
cooperation. The MoU tasked the NHMSs to start joint
implementation of the regional programs no later than December

2009. The WB agreed to serve as coordinator for follow-up
consultations and actions. (NOTE: The MoU must still be approved
by the individual Central Asian governments.)



COMMENT

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16. (SBU) The proposed initiatives and regionally coordinated
delivery of hydro-meteorological services will help the countries
of Central Asia limit losses -- currently millions of dollars
annually -- due to natural hazards. They also will improve data
and information sharing, climate monitoring, and drought
management, thereby improving the countries' capacities to adapt to
the changing climate. Most importantly, improved cooperation
between Central Asian NHMSs will contribute to the resolution of
long-standing unsettled tensions over water allocation.
BUTCHER