Identifier
Created
Classification
Origin
09TASHKENT1651
2009-12-30 11:55:00
UNCLASSIFIED
Embassy Tashkent
Cable title:  

PARLIAMENTARY ELECTIONS IN UZBEKISTAN: NOTHING WRONG BUT THE

Tags:  PGOV PREL PHUM KDEM UZ 
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INFO ALL SOUTH AND CENTRAL ASIA COLLECTIVE
CIS COLLECTIVE
UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 03 TASHKENT 001651 

SIPDIS
DEPT FOR SCA/CEN

E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: PGOV PREL PHUM KDEM UZ
SUBJECT: PARLIAMENTARY ELECTIONS IN UZBEKISTAN: NOTHING WRONG BUT THE
BIG PICTURE

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 03 TASHKENT 001651

SIPDIS
DEPT FOR SCA/CEN

E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: PGOV PREL PHUM KDEM UZ
SUBJECT: PARLIAMENTARY ELECTIONS IN UZBEKISTAN: NOTHING WRONG BUT THE
BIG PICTURE


1. (SBU) SUMMARY: Elections for Uzbekistan's lower house of
Parliament took place on Sunday, December 27. Five election
observation teams from the Embassy visited 33 polling stations in
Tashkent and the neighboring regions, and concluded that although
the elections were not free and fair (no opposition political
candidates were on the ballots),on a technical level they ran
smoothly. The only significant abnormalities noted were proxy
voting and the use of a "mobile ballot box." The Embassy's views
align closely with those relayed to us by the head of the
OSCE/ODIHR Election Assessment Mission. END SUMMARY.

TAKING "TRAINING WHEELS DEMOCRACY" OUT FOR A SPIN
-------------- --------------


2. (SBU) The GOU approach to elections is characterized by the
paternalistic assumption that ordinary Uzbek citizens are not ready
for real, "no holds barred" democracy. Accordingly, the
parliamentary elections are a type of semi-democratic exercise
wherein the government strictly limits the "variables" and then
allows the elections themselves to proceed with little apparent
interference. After first setting very narrow parameters for
candidacy and virtually guaranteeing that eventual parliamentarians
will fully support the executive branch (if not completely agree
with each other),the GOU made the elections themselves as
technically correct as possible. For this reason, election
observers were welcome to witness the main event, but discouraged
from analyzing the political situation in the country in the months
before election day. (NOTE: Technically the elections are not
over as runoffs will take place in 41 constituencies where no
candidate received 50 percent of the vote. End Note.)


3. (SBU) Embassy election observers noted that although the GOU
seems to miss the point on the most essential aspects of a
democratic society, particularly a free press and robust political
dialogue with opposing viewpoints, it tries to make up for its
democratic shortcomings by focusing on minute details during the
elections themselves. For example, our teams noted each polling
station had a first aid room staffed by medical professionals, and
a "mother and child" room, stocked with toys, so that parents can
comfortably vote without worrying about childcare. Election

officials were also proud to show observers their complete array of
books and pamphlets addressing the rights and privileges of Uzbek
voters, and their collections of newspapers with election coverage
and information about the candidates. More importantly, polling
station officials generally appeared to be conscientious and
committed, if not downright enthusiastic. (One poloff noticed an
election chairman removing his own eyeglasses and lending them to
an elderly gentleman who was unable to read the ballot.)

THE FAMILY THAT VOTES TOGETHER . . .
--------------


4. (SBU) The most obvious technical weakness on election day was
the widespread practice of allowing a single family member to cast
proxy ballots for all of the eligible voters in the family.
Evidence of this practice was noted in every polling station that
embassy observers visited. In many polling stations, there was not
even an attempt to conceal this "family voting." In full view of
embassy teams, a single voter would present multiple passports at
the registration point and receive multiple ballots in return. One
team observed a single voter stuffing an estimated 30 ballots into
the ballot box. In other polling stations, particularly those
where most people had already voted, observers looked over the
registration lists and noted long series of identical signatures,
indicating that a single person had "signed out" numerous ballots.
Only in a few polling places did election officials attempt to
conceal the evidence of proxy voting by refusing to issue multiple
ballots while the embassy's observers were clearly watching.
(COMMENT: Emboffs thought that the voters presenting multiple
passports appeared visibly upset not to receive all of "their"
ballots, and believe that election officials probably told those
voters to come back after the embassy team left. End Comment.)
Evidence of proxy voting was still apparent on the registration
lists, though election officials at those locations tried to
convince embassy observers that very similar handwriting "runs in
the family."


5. (SBU) Aside from the obvious problem that casting multiple votes
is not consistent with international standards of democracy, as
well as being illegal under Uzbek election law, ubiquitous proxy
voting means that voter turnout statistics are grossly inflated.
Based on our observation, we estimate that each person physically
present at the polls was casting an average of two to four votes.
Even some of the Embassy's local staff admitted that they had
allowed (or asked) their family members to vote for them. Thus, it
is safe to estimate that the real voter turnout was below fifty

TASHKENT 00001651 002 OF 003


percent, certainly not the officially reported 88 percent.
However, it is possible that more of those absent family members
would show up at the polls if the convenient, family-style method
of voting was not so widely accepted. Officials clearly felt that
achieving a high voter turnout was one of their electoral duties,
motivating them to overlook or even endorse a practice that
increases their success rate. Each polling station also boasted a
"mobile voting box," ostensibly only for the collection of ballots
from voters confined to their homes due to illness or disability.
However, our teams believe that "door to door" voting services
might have been used as another means to boost turnout numbers.

CITY VOTER, COUNTRY VOTER
--------------


6. (U) During the run-up to election day, opposition websites
conducted informal polls in Tashkent that demonstrated Uzbek
citizens' utter apathy to the parliamentary elections. And yet,
our embassy observation teams viewed a considerable amount of
unfeigned enthusiasm on the big day. It is simply not possible to
characterize definitively a single Uzbek attitude toward the
election process. Some of the discrepancies between those gloomy
media reports and our personal impressions may be due to
differences between the election situation in urban and rural
areas. In general, the urban population is more cynical about the
political situation and more apathetic towards the election
process. The Embassy's own local staff mostly falls into the
latter category; although they are among the most well-informed and
politically savvy citizens of Uzbekistan, many of them told us they
did not vote at all. On the other hand, emboffs who observed the
elections in rural areas noted that many rural citizens seem to be
true believers in the Uzbek system.

A CLIMATE OF FEAR, OR A PARTY ATMOSPHERE?
--------------


7. (SBU) Most impartial international observers, including our
teams, have concluded that the parliamentary elections were neither
free nor fair. However, press reports which alleged that the
elections took place in a climate of fear are exaggerated. In
point of fact, there was no need for the government to discourage
Uzbeks from voting for the opposition-after all, there were no real
opposition candidates on the ballot. (NOTE: The instructions on
the ballot clearly stated that if voters either marked multiple
candidates or did not mark any of the candidates, the ballot would
not be tallied-so no chance of casting a blank ballot in protest.
End Note.) According to our observations, neither was there any
particular need for citizens to be coerced into voting. There were
many polling stations, so voting was not inconvenient, and for many
(particularly in the rural areas),election day seemed to be a
social occasion and a welcome break from their routine. Several of
the polling stations were playing loud, festive music; one of our
teams saw a number of people dancing at the polls. The close-knit
neighborhood organizations (mahallahs) were actively involved in
the elections, and prominent members of the community were seen to
cast their ballots and then nip off for a cup of tea, a plate of
plov, or a bowl of stew with members of the election commission.
Members of the election commissions (particularly in rural areas)
seemed excited to welcome international observers, show off their
"mother and child" rooms, and then share their traditional Uzbek
hospitality in the form of tea and food.


8. (U) Welcoming eighteen-year-old voters also seemed to be a
matter of considerable pride at each polling station. The full
birth dates of all local residents who were eligible to vote for
the first time were posted on the registration lists, and several
of the election commissions had planned a special acknowledgement
for first-time voters upon registration. One polling station even
had small gifts for all young people casting their votes for the
first time. Many young voters seemed to be excited to participate
in the political process.


9. (SBU) Our observation teams did not witness any voter
intimidation, and it seems highly unlikely that intimidation
tactics are part of the central government's game plan. (As
previously noted, the GOU has no need to resort to thuggish
behavior against voters, since every candidate on every ballot is a
member of a political party that supports the president.) However,
it is possible that intimidation, pressure, and possibly other
sorts of election fraud may happen within certain electoral
districts under the direction of local leaders with a particular
interest in the outcome. For example, social pressure to
participate in the polls might be applied to constituents in
certain districts. Teachers might feel compelled by their
supervisors to "volunteer" to assist at the polls. And of course,
the previously mentioned technical weaknesses -- family voting and

TASHKENT 00001651 003 OF 003


the mobile ballot box -- could be exploited on a local level.
Before the election, many eligible citizens received text messages
on their cell phones reminding them that it is their civic duty to
vote. One of our local staff told us that someone called his home
on Sunday afternoon to ask why he had not voted yet; he felt that
the tone of the call was scolding, but not at all threatening.

OSCE HAS SIMILAR EXPERIENCE
--------------


10. (SBU) In a post-election meeting with Ambassador Norland, the
head of the OSCE Election Assessment Mission Ambassador Jolanda
Brunetti described the experiences of the 8-person OSCE team.
(NOTE: The OSCE did not deploy a full election observation mission
due to its finding that the current political spectrum does not
offer a genuine choice between political alternatives. End Note.)
The OSCE observers saw family voting at each of the polling
stations they visited, as well as occasional failures to check for
valid registration cards. Brunetti said she saw this not as bad
faith but simply sloppy implementation of Uzbekistan's own laws and
procedures. Overall, she said she observed good organizational
layout at the polling stations she visited. Although the elections
did not meet international standards, Brunetti said progress had
been made, particularly in comparison with her experience in
Uzbekistan in the 1990s.

COMMENT: HAS ANYTHING CHANGED? WILL ANYTHING CHANGE?
-------------- --------------


11. (SBU) At his local polling station, President Karimov took the
opportunity to reiterate to the media that his theory that
incremental change is the ideal path to democracy, and he held
Uzbekistan up as a model for the rest of the world even while
admitting that Uzbek democracy was still a work in progress. Like
many regional leaders, Karimov was spooked by the "Color
Revolutions" and seems determined to ensure that no revolutions
will ever throw his country into chaos. His policies suggest that
he considers stability and security to be among the most desirable
characteristics of a political system; his preference for strong,
centralized government is a natural byproduct of his Soviet
background. While democracy may be a necessary evil, elections
present the risk of revolution -- a risk that can be minimized by
strictly controlling the variables.


12. (SBU) Not surprisingly, given the "evolutionary" political
philosophy of its president, Uzbekistan's progress on the road to
democracy has been slow -- so slow that the GOU sometimes appears
to be moving backwards. However, the political system in
Uzbekistan does appear to be evolving, albeit at a glacial pace.
Despite the extremely deliberate process, the political parties
themselves have shown some encouraging signs of differentiation,
and debate over social and economic policy has begun to cautiously
enter Uzbekistan's political sphere. For the first time, political
parties have begun to criticize each other, and they seem to be
gaining confidence in their role as potential shapers of policy.
This could be a small but important step. In addition, our
observers noted that many young people were present at the
polls-not just as voters, but also as officials and political party
representatives. Several of them told us that they were proud to
be part of the political process and hoped to be candidates
themselves some day. As Uzbekistan continues to distance itself
from its Soviet past, democratization is possible, even if it will
not come quickly.
NORLAND