UZBEKISTAN PREPARES FOR DECEMBER PARLIAMENTARY ELECTIONS

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TAGS: PGOV PREL EAID KDEM UZ
SUBJECT: UZBEKISTAN PREPARES FOR DECEMBER PARLIAMENTARY ELECTIONS


1. Sensitive but unclassified. Not for public internet.


2. (U) SUMMARY: The parliamentary elections in Uzbekistan
slated for December 2009 are likely to result in minimal
changes to the overall structure of decision-making in
the country; however, what may define the development of
government responsiveness and transparency in Uzbekistan
is not the outcome of the elections, but how political
parties are learning to run for office. The elections
represent a possible evolutionary shift in how the
government-sponsored political parties in Uzbekistan run
election campaigns, interact with the electorate, and
compete in a closed political system. The upcoming
elections will be an opportunity for the Government of
Uzbekistan to forestall possible social instability
through political competition and consensus building,
while laying the groundwork for greater receptivity to
democratic principles.


BACKGROUND: Political Parties in Uzbekistan


3. (SBU) The December 2009 parliamentary elections offer
an important, albeit limited, opportunity for parties and
civic groups to engage citizens in decision-making. The
five political parties--Adolat, Ecological (Green)
Movement, Liberal Democratic Party of Uzbekistan, Milliy
Tiklanish, and the National Democratic Party-must
compete with each other for seats in the lower house.
Although these parties are loyal to the executive and
they remain the only groups that can run campaigns and
whose members can be nominated for election, the prospect
of gaining or losing seats is a powerful motivation for
improved campaigning. While there continue to be
constraints on political speech and association within
Uzbekistan, the political parties are provided with
sufficient space by the executive branch to compete in
elections.


4. (SBU) Despite this limited freedom to campaign
provided to loyalist groups, parties remain relatively
unaware of how democratic processes take place, how to
engage the electorate, and how to run a campaign.
Indeed, many party members do not view the public as
constituents and in the vacuum of Uzbek politics and
media, representational government is a wholly alien
concept. Lack of public pressure and incentives to work
with the public has meant that political parties do not
have the experience and skills needed for assessing the
demands and needs of the public, developing programs that
address those priorities, and communicating these
programs to the public. For example, despite recent
demonstrations, the parties have yet to address growing
frustration with declining economic opportunities in
their platforms or legislative agendas. Continued
inability to react to the demands of the people is
potentially destabilizing; May bombings in the border
region with Kyrgyzstan may portend future destabilizing
acts.


The Weak "Opposition"


4. (SBU) In Uzbekistan, there is essentially no
opposition to the current administration. Human rights
activists, journalists and others who speak out for
change lack the ability to collectively advocate and make
demands due to continued harassment and infighting
between groups. The clash of personalities preventing
collaboration between movements is evinced in their
genesis: the major unregistered political groups--
Agrarian, Birlik (Unity),Erk (Liberty),Ozod Dekhon
(Free Farmers),and Sunshine Uzbekistan--all originated
from the Soviet-era Birlik movement. The government
readily exploits the larger-than-life personalities of
their leaders (three of whom are in exile outside of
Uzbekistan) to further rifts; grants provided to these

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groups are sometimes met with allegations of donor
favoritism by those who are not funded. None of these
non-registered political groups can participate in
political decision-making or in elections. Generally,
these groups have failed to offer the public independent
points of view on issues due to weak organizational
capacity. Neither the exiled leaders nor those inside
Uzbekistan have viable plans for building the bases of
support for these groups.

Remaking Parties to Be More Democratic


5. (U) Despite the generally poor record on elections and
the development of diverse, responsive political parties,
the position of the Government of Uzbekistan towards
outside help on these issues (and human rights) appears
to be slightly shifting. The government proclaims the
abolition of the death penalty and its adoption of the
right of habeas corpus as evidence that Uzbekistan shares
certain democratic values. In February 2009, Uzbekistan
became a signatory to the UN Convention on the Rights of
Peoples with Disabilities, demonstrating that there are
selected policy areas in which parliament has limited
autonomy to set policy in social spheres.


6. (SBU) Perhaps more critically has been the
unprecedented access of USAID grantee the National
Democratic Institute (NDI) to political parties for
training purposes. In a country where donors lack the
ability to directly collaborate with legislators, NDI's
experience assisting parties in techniques such as
developing campaigns, voter outreach, codes of ethics and
candidate selection indicate a sea change in how parties
relate to the public. Since the last election in
December 2004, NDI has maintained a presence in
Uzbekistan and maintained relationships with the GoU,
even as many international NGOs were forced to close.
Starting with workshops and conferences to discuss best
practices in elections with international experts, trust
between this American partner organization and the
Government of Uzbekistan has been rebuilt, resulting in
parties directly participating in the first of a series
of trainings for the December 2009 elections in August

2008. NDI provided information about best practices for
assessing voters' concerns and priorities and gave
practical tools to party members on how to mobilize a
grassroots campaign. The nine-day seminars also included
discussions of up-to-date citizen outreach methods,
communication techniques, candidate selection, and
message development. A series of workshops in the run-up
to the election are building upon basic concepts (e.g.
advertising, press conferences) with the same group of
representatives from different groups to enhance the
depth of knowledge and practical tools available to all
parties.


7. (SBU) In the workshops, party members are showing they
know how to apply their new knowledge: in an August 2009
training, party members designed mock campaigns for their
candidates. While presenting their ideas, participants
suggested using SMS technology, public polls, and direct
interaction with vulnerable groups like the homeless to
give their candidates the edge. Anyone familiar with
politics in Uzbekistan will agree that these tactics are
ground-breaking and may indicate parties are ready to
actively listen to the demands of the populace.

Signs of Competition between Parties


6. (SBU) Although the outcomes of these trainings cannot
fully be gauged until the candidate nomination process
and elections have taken place, anecdotal evidence of the
change in the orientation of parties is appearing. In
April 2009, Uzbek language newspapers (such as newspaper
Tashkent XXI Asr) began reporting that the People's
Democratic Party of Uzbekistan had "set itself a main
goal of increasing, in every possible way, its influence

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in neighborhoods" to affect election results. This
article is significantnot only because the PDP is led by
the presidentas it shows that the PDP is seriously
considering how to become more competitive against other
parties (a characteristic generally lacking in the
political landscape of Uzbekistan's parties) or at least
points to criticism of the ruling party in the media.
This article was followed by two similar articles
indicating increasing competition among political parties
over successive months, including an article where the
PDP struck back against criticism, stating that the
Liberal Democratic Party had begun campaigning too early;
ostensibly a clear violation of the 2008 election law
(Vesti Newspaper, June 09, 2009).


7. (SBU) COMMENT: The unexpected energy and innovation of
political party members in trainings paired with public
criticism of government-sanctioned parties may indicate
that the attitudes and perceptions of those standing for
election in Uzbekistan are changing. Clearly the
enthusiasm of political party workshop participants
demonstrates that lower-level government representatives
are open to new methods of campaigning and listening to
the electorate. Over the long-term, the type of training
and support provided to parties and civil society through
USAID programs has the potential to extend the impact of
these incremental improvements.
NORLAND