ESTONIA on AFGHANISTAN-PAKISTAN

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 TALLINN 000086

SIPDIS

FOR EUR/NB-MIGUEL RODRIGUES

E.O. 12958: DECL: 03/20/2019
TAGS: PGOV PREL MOPS EAIF NATO PK AF EN
SUBJECT: ESTONIA on AFGHANISTAN-PAKISTAN

Classified By: CDA Karen Decker for reasons 1.4 (b) &
(d).

REF: (A) STATE 29482
(B) STATE 28929
(C) TALLINN 77


1. (C) On March 31, POl/Econ Chief and DATT met with
Christian-Marc Liflander, MOD Director for Policy
Planning and MOD and Paul Teesalu, MFA Director for
Security Policy to discuss the Government of Estonia
response to the Afghanistan-Pakistan Strategic Review
(Ref A) as well as possible deliverables for the upcoming
NATO and EU Summits (Ref B).


2. (C) With regard to the Strategic Review, MFA/MOD
provided the following feedback:

-- Both MFA and MOD reacted positively to the regional
approach used in the strategy, including treating
Afghanistan and Pakistan as one theater for diplomatic
activity.

-- Liflander commented that while it is very clear the
issue of Pakistan must be addressed, Washington has more
leverage with Pakistan than NATO. Liflander also
concurred with the need to engage moderate Taliban, but
expressed his own concern about "unintended consequences"
of this process, noting that how we go about this
engagement would be just as important as the end result.

-- Liflander expressed appreciation for the attention to
a communications strategy. There is a need to focus on
"hearts and minds" in NATO capitals, he said, because
lack of progress in Afghanistan is going to make it
increasingly difficult to sustain domestic support in the
long-run.

-- Teesalu noted positively the differentiated approaches
in Pakistan (central control) and Afghanistan (more
decentralized) as well as the focus on economic
development in both countries.

-- Both MFA and MOD emphasized the importance of
coordination several times throughout the conversation.
Teesalu reiterated MFA support for UNAMA creating an
international database to track all international donor
assistance in Afghanistan. It is hard for a country like
Estonia, which has only one diplomat on the ground in
Kabul, to figure out what is being done in any particular
sector in Afghanistan, Teesalu said. Also, right now
UNAMA does not have a clear picture of what development
assistance Afghanistan is receiving. This is a priority
for Estonia and the EU.

-- MFA also specifically stressed the need for improved
US-EU coordination. With respect to police training,
Teesalu noted, the US and EU need better coordination to
avoid overlapping assistance. On establishment of a
Contact Group, MFA proposed that individual donor
countries and an EU rep be included from the beginning.

-- Also on coordination, MOD noted that there are so many
players dealing on the security side in Afghanistan and
new ones coming (possible NTM-A, French Gendarmerie and
Italian Carabinieri) that effective coordination is even more
essential.

-- MFA suggested we consider ways to encourage contacts
between local authorities in Pakistan and Afghanistan.


3. (C) MFA/MOD also provided feedback on our request for
deliverables for the NATO and EU Summits:

-- While in Washington last week, MOD U/S Riho Terras
raised the possibility of Estonia sending a platoon to
Afghanistan to support the August elections. However,
MOD still needs to decide if its budget will support this
additional operation. Although deployment in support of
the elections would require Parliamentary approval
(because it is outside Estonia's current legislative
mandate for Afghanistan),Liflander said, this factor is
not an obstacle. MOD has the paperwork ready to submit
to the Parliament and a July timeframe is still realistic
if there is money for the operation. Liflander's July
timeline would also support recreating the now disbanded
platoon that had been intended for Iraq. MOD emphasized
that this deployment would be a "one-off", not

TALLINN 00000086 002 OF 002


sustainable and that Estonia, like many allies, would
need support to conduct such a deployment.

-- Liflander emphasized the need to look down the road,
rather than just short term. Among other factors in
Estonia, local elections in October 09 will add stress to
short-term political decisions on the budget. In the
longer term, MOD is still considering contributing to an
Embedded Training Team (ETT)(possibly leading to a Joint
US-EST OMLT) and development of a Special Operations
Forces (SOF) /HUMINT team for Afghanistan.

-- Liflander stressed that Estonia is not "backing off"
from Afghanistan. This remains the most important
operation in which Estonia is involved. While the GOE is
not reducing its contribution to Afghanistan, it may not
be able to increase it. If the budget forces a change in
Estonian op tempo, it won't be in Afghanistan, Liflander
added. Estonia and all of Europe have hard decisions to
make.

-- MFA said that despite the budget situation, the MFA
does not plan to decrease development assistance to
Afghanistan. Estonia will continue to focus on the
health sector (in Southern Afghanistan). It is also
looking at education-sector projects in Kabul; sending
Afghan diplomats to the Estonian School of Diplomacy in
2010; sending a parliamentary delegation to Kabul to
explore way of enhancing the Afghan parliament's IT
capabilities. (As reported in Ref C, Estonia has already
provided $40,000 to Afghanistan for election support.)

-- The MFA hosted a meeting last week with Ministers and
NGOs to discuss Afghanistan. This is part of a larger
goal of disseminating information on what the GOE is
already doing in Afghanistan and assessing what
additional capabilities Estonia may have to contribute
(e.g. specialists from NGOs and ministries other than the
MFA).

DECKER