Identifier
Created
Classification
Origin
09TALLINN335
2009-11-16 11:15:00
CONFIDENTIAL
Embassy Tallinn
Cable title:  

Estonia: Opposition Dominates Local Elections

Tags:  PGOV PREL EN 
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DE RUEHTL #0335/01 3201116
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R 161115Z NOV 09
FM AMEMBASSY TALLINN
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC 0220
INFO EUROPEAN POLITICAL COLLECTIVE
C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 04 TALLINN 000335 

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AMEMBASSY ASTANA PASS TO USOFFICE ALMATY
AMEMBASSY BERLIN PASS TO AMCONSUL DUSSELDORF
AMEMBASSY BERLIN PASS TO AMCONSUL LEIPZIG
AMEMBASSY BELGRADE PASS TO AMEMBASSY PODGORICA
AMEMBASSY HELSINKI PASS TO AMCONSUL ST PETERSBURG
AMEMBASSY ATHENS PASS TO AMCONSUL THESSALONIKI
AMEMBASSY MOSCOW PASS TO AMCONSUL VLADIVOSTOK
AMEMBASSY MOSCOW PASS TO AMCONSUL YEKATERINBURG

E.O. 12958: DECL: 2019/11/16
TAGS: PGOV PREL EN
SUBJECT: Estonia: Opposition Dominates Local Elections

REF: TALLINN 311

CLASSIFIED BY: Marc Nordberg, Political/Economic Chief; REASON:
1.4(B),(D)

Classified by Charge Karen Decker for Reasons 1.4 B & D.



C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 04 TALLINN 000335

SIPDIS
AMEMBASSY ANKARA PASS TO AMCONSUL ADANA
AMEMBASSY ASTANA PASS TO USOFFICE ALMATY
AMEMBASSY BERLIN PASS TO AMCONSUL DUSSELDORF
AMEMBASSY BERLIN PASS TO AMCONSUL LEIPZIG
AMEMBASSY BELGRADE PASS TO AMEMBASSY PODGORICA
AMEMBASSY HELSINKI PASS TO AMCONSUL ST PETERSBURG
AMEMBASSY ATHENS PASS TO AMCONSUL THESSALONIKI
AMEMBASSY MOSCOW PASS TO AMCONSUL VLADIVOSTOK
AMEMBASSY MOSCOW PASS TO AMCONSUL YEKATERINBURG

E.O. 12958: DECL: 2019/11/16
TAGS: PGOV PREL EN
SUBJECT: Estonia: Opposition Dominates Local Elections

REF: TALLINN 311

CLASSIFIED BY: Marc Nordberg, Political/Economic Chief; REASON:
1.4(B),(D)

Classified by Charge Karen Decker for Reasons 1.4 B & D.




1. (U) SUMMARY. The October 18th local elections for 226 town
councils throughout Estonia resulted in few surprises, other than
a robust turnout of 60.57 percent, considerably higher than the
47.4 percent participating in the last local elections in 2005.
The Center Party won a clear majority in Tallinn but will govern in
a coalition with the Social Democrats (SDE). Increasing its
support from Russian-speakers, the Center Party strengthened its
hold on Narva with 76.6 percent of the votes, compared to 59.9
percent in 2005. The Reform Party (which leads the government at
the national level) will continue to govern Tartu (Estonia's
second-largest city) in a coalition with the Center Party and the
People's Union. Incumbent coalitions were overturned in both Parnu
and Rakvere. Internet voting became even more firmly established
with over 104,000 e-votes cast, approximately 15.8 percent of total
votes. Positioning for the 2011 Parliamentary Elections, and the
Presidential Election in the fall of 2011, has now begun in
earnest. END SUMMARY.



POLITICAL PRIMER: THE PARTIES

--------------




2. (U) As a quick review, the following are the main political
parties in Estonia:

-- Center: Center-left, populist. Estonia's largest party by
membership, but currently in opposition in parliament with 28 MPs.
Receives heavy support from Russian speakers.

-- Reform: Center-right, pro-business. Currently the largest
party in parliament with 31 seats.

-- IRL: Center-right, nationalist. Third largest party in
parliament (19 seats) and coalition partner with Reform.

-- Social Democrats: Center-left. Has 10 seats in parliament and

was previously in a coalition with Reform and IRL until their
removal over the summer.

-- People's Union: Social-democratic, agrarian. They have six
seats in parliament, but their popularity has been damaged
following a corruption scandal involving the party chair.

-- Greens: Pro-environment, fiscally conservative. They have six
seats in parliament.




3. (U) Local elections were held October 18 throughout Estonia.
The opposition Center Party was the clear winner, increasing its
support in most districts. The results are a preliminary
indication for the 2011 parliamentary and presidential elections.
Center's victory can be attributed to dissatisfaction over the
state of the economy and the current government's - led by Reform -
handling of the April 2007 removal of the Bronze Soldier statue.
Center was virtually the only party to actively seek the
Russian-speaking vote, and was rewarded for these efforts,
receiving most of the Russian-speaking votes. However, Center's
Russian support will count for less in 2011, as roughly half of
Estonia's Russian-speakers, as non-citizens, can only vote in local
elections. More surprising, however, was that Reform received the
support it did. Reform is the party in power, and this year
Estonia's GDP has fallen 15.3 percent (third quarter year-on-year).
Despite massive economic dislocations, Reform faced little anger at
the voting booth, and the vote could be seen as mainstream support
for Reform's staunch advocacy of keeping the budget small in order
to join the Eurozone in 2011 .

TALLINN 00000335 002 OF 004


INTERNET VOTING GAINS IN POPULARITY

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4. (U) The 2009 local elections marked the fourth time that
Estonians could vote online, and they did so in ever greater
numbers. The most prominent e-voter was President Toomas Hendrik
Ilves who cast his vote from Estonia's Honorary Consulate in
Skopje, Macedonia. The election commission counted a total of
104,313 e-votes cast during the seven days of e-voting, compared to
58,614 cast in the European Parliamentary elections earlier this
year. These most recent figures constitute a little less than ten
percent of registered voters and 15.8 percent of overall votes
cast. Post is unaware of any reports of abuse of e-voting or any
serious complaints about this system, adding emphasis to the
efficiency and anti-corruption benefits of e-governance.



Status Quo in Tallinn

--------------




5. (U) In what many characterize as a rebuke of the Reform Party
over the removal of the Bronze Soldier, the Center Party won an
even larger absolute majority of seats on the Tallinn City Council
than in 2005, securing 44 seats out of 79 with 53.5 percent of the
votes. The Reform Party received 16.6 percent of the vote, earning
them 14 seats on the council, one less than in 2005. Pro Patria
and Res Publica Union (IRL) secured 13 seats with 15.4 percent of
the vote. With 9.8 percent of the vote, the Social Democrats (SDE)
took eight council seats. The results would have allowed the
Center Party to govern without the need of a coalition as they did
from 2005-2009, but Party Chairman Edgar Savisaar offered to form a
coalition with SDE. The coalition agreement gives SDE Chairman
Juri Pihl the position of Deputy Mayor for Sustainable Development,
Social Affairs and Public Order, one of the six deputy mayor
positions. The SDE will also get to chair one of the eight
regional districts in Tallinn. Center Party member Toomas Viitsut
will return as Chair of the Council.




6. (U) The Center Party-SDE coalition agreement is also loaded
with lots of goodies which Finance Minister and Reform Party member
Jurgen Ligi has already publicly criticized as financially
infeasible. Ligi stated that all of the larger municipalities have
reached the limits of what they are allowed to borrow, and he noted
that, "Tallinn cannot do what the two parties have agreed if they
observe the law." Tallinn's budget is typically in the
neighborhood of seven billion EEK (approximately USD 673 million),
but the Finance Ministry estimates that all of the promises in the
coalition agreement would result in an approximate budget of nine
billion EEK (over USD 865 million). The agreement calls for the
following: construction of a fast tram system, repurchasing of the
Tallinn water company, continuation of the social jobs program, a
steep increase in the city's payments to pensioners, and creation
of a municipal television channel.



A COALITION BASED ON "WORLD VIEW"

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7. (U) Upon reaching agreement, Savisaar hailed it as the first
coalition in Tallinn based on "world view" and it seems evident to
us that he is setting the stage for the March 2011 Parliamentary
Elections with a clearly defined center-left bloc in opposition to
the center-right governing coalition. Only a few days after their
decisive victory in Tallinn, the Center Party also offered the
ailing People's Union, which only garnered 1.9 percent of the vote,

TALLINN 00000335 003 OF 004


the prospect of a merger into the Center Party. Such a merger
would give Center (and Savisaar) support in the rural areas - vital
if Savisaar runs for president in 2011. While their overall
support was low, the People's Union won majorities in 47 rural
municipalities. An alliance with the People's Union would also
help Savisaar counter the image of being the candidate of Estonia's
Russian-speaking voters. Both the SDE and Greens have also offered
mergers to the People's Union.




8. (C) While the Center Party clearly dictated the terms of the
coalition agreement to SDE, the Center does run a slight risk in
bringing SDE on board. Center will try to place the blame for any
shortcomings on SDE, but SDE will gain from avoiding complete
obscurity in the run-up to the parliamentary elections. SDE
Secretary General Randel Lants confided to poloff that he believes
SDE is the most natural fit for Russian-speaking voters, and that
SDE can appeal to Russian-speaking voters if given the chance. To
that end SDE has made a long-term commitment to increasing outreach
to the Russian-speaking community. The 2009 local elections marked
the first time that SDE put forward a large number of lists in
predominantly Russian-speaking East Viru County. However, their
showing in Narva, 4.8 percent of the vote (double SDE's support in
2005),was not enough to secure even one seat on the council.
Increasing their appeal to Russian-speakers may be a bit of long
shot for SDE since party leader Juri Pihl was Minister of Interior
during the Bronze Soldier riots in April 2007 (see septel for
Russian participation in elections).



REALLY NO CHANGE IN TARTU

--------------




9. (U) As incumbent Mayor Urmas Kruuse predicted, Reform held on
to power in Tartu with a loss of only two seats, giving them 17 of
49 seats. Reform will continue in a coalition with the Center
Party (nine seats) and the People's Union (two seats) as in the
previous administration, but the details of a coalition agreement
are not yet available. However, prominent Center Party politician
Aadu Must, father of Center Party parliamentary faction head Kadri
Simson, has resigned his parliamentary seat in order to become
Chair of the City Council. The Greens lost all three seats that
they held in the previous council, and IRL managed to pick up four
new seats for a total of 13.



CENTER STRENGTHENS ITS GRIP ON NARVA IN A LANDSLIDE

-------------- --------------
--------------




10. (U) With incumbent City Council Chair Mihail Stalnuhhin at the
top of the list in Narva, the Center Party secured 76.6 percent of
the vote, compared to 59.9 percent in 2005. This showing earned
Center 26 out of 31 seats. The remaining seats are divided among
local election unions and an independent candidate. Aside from
SDE's nascent efforts in East Viru County, the other parties made
little effort to woo Russian-speaking voters.



Center Charges After Other Russian-Speakers

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11. (SBU) Estonia's main Russian-speaking regions are the
north-east (around Narva),the Tallinn suburb of Lasnamae, and the
Old Believer communities along the shore of Lake Peipsi. Local
leaders told Poloff that Center made a major push to win support in

TALLINN 00000335 004 OF 004


the Lake Peipsi region this election cycle. Center campaigned on a
promise to close local schools and use the savings to raise
pensions - seeking support from the area's aging population.
Center managed to win 20 percent of the vote with these promises,
but was trounced by two local lists that took a combined 69
percent.



CHANGE COMES TO PARNU

--------------




12. (U) The election union put forward by the independent Governor
of Parnu County, Toomas Kivimagi, drew support from a wide spectrum
of voters to secure 14 of 33 seats (35.6 percent of the vote) and
remove the Center Party from the lead of its coalition with Reform.
Kivimagi's union will enter into a broad coalition with Reform, IRL
and SDE. The coalition agreement calls for a 20 percent reduction
in local government expenditures, which will be achieved by closing
the city newspaper, merging the chancelleries of the city
government and council, and disbanding the municipal police force.



A DOUBLE UPSET IN RAKVERE

--------------




13. (U) The Center Party's attempt to import popular media
personality Peeter Vosa into local politics in Rakvere failed. The
SDE faired the best capturing six of 21 seats. They have entered
into a coalition with IRL and Reform. Rannar Vassiljev, 28
year-old SDE member and former Deputy Mayor, will now be Mayor.
Mihkel Juhkami of IRL will continue as Council Chair and former
Mayor Andres Jaadla will become Deputy Chair of the Council.



THE STAGE IS SET FOR PARLIAMENTARY AND PRESIDENTIAL ELECTIONS IN
2011

-------------- --------------
--------------




14. (U) COMMENT. While the local election in Tallinn has some
undertones of national politics, it has no direct impact on the
parliamentary races. Much of Center's support came from
Russian-speaking voters, roughly half of whom (as non-citizens - 15
percent of the population) cannot vote in national elections.
However, the local elections lay the groundwork for the 2011
presidential election. Estonia's president is chosen by
parliament. If two-thirds of parliament cannot agree on a
candidate (as has happened in three of Estonia's four presidential
elections),an Electoral College is formed by all local
municipalities to elect the president. Therefore Center's local
victories and attempts to absorb the People's Union can be seen as
an attempt for Center, and its leader Savisaar, to position
themselves for the next presidential election. Should the Center
Party prove successful in merging with the People's Union, or at
least absorbing a significant part of it, then they will be well
positioned to compete with Reform and IRL outside of their
traditional strongholds of Tallinn and northeast Estonia.
DECKER