Estonia:Local Elections Outlook

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E.O. 12958: DECL: 2019/10/15
TAGS: PGOV EN
SUBJECT: Estonia:Local Elections Outlook

REF: TALLINN 320

CLASSIFIED BY: Marc Nordberg, Political/Economic Chief; REASON:
1.4(B),(D)


1. (SBU) SUMMARY. On October 18, Estonians and non-citizen legal
residents will cast ballots in local elections for 226 town
councils. While the debates outside Tallinn remain focused on
local and domestic issues ("it's the economy, stupid") , the race
in Tallinn is being trumpeted (by the opposition) as an unofficial
referendum on the governing coalition. Polling results indicate
that the opposition Center Party, with a strong base among
pensioners and Estonia's Russian-speaking community, will
strengthen its grip on Tallinn's city government, although there
are a significant amount of undecided voters. Post does not expect
major changes in the major urban centers (Tallinn, Tartu, and
Narva),but the results will be an important milestone on the road
to parliamentary elections in 2011. One interesting aspect of
these elections that we are monitoring is the efficacy and success
of e-voting. END SUMMARY.

Political Primer: The Parties


2. (U) As a quick review, the following are the main political
parties and their affiliations:

-- Center: Center-left, populist. Estonia's largest party by
membership, and second by number of MPs (28 seats),but in the
opposition. Center is the only major party actively seeking
support from Estonia's Russian-speakers.

--Reform: Center-right, pro-business. Currently the largest party
in parliament (31 seats),and the party of the PM.

-- IRL: Center-right nationalist. Third largest party in
parliament (19 seats) and coalition partner with Reform.

--Social-Democrats: Center-left. Has ten seats in parliament. Was
in a coalition with Reform and IRL until last summer, when it was
removed. Although the president cannot belong to any party,
President Toomas Ilves came from the Social Democrats.

-- Peoples Union: Social-democratic, agrarian. Has six seats in
parliament but its popularity has been fading following a
corruption scandal with the party leader.

-- Greens: Pro-environment, fiscally conservative. Has six seats
in parliament.


3. (U) A total of 15,322 candidates are running for 3,076 positions
nationwide. The vast majority are running on party or other
electoral lists. The number of truly independent candidates (not
on any particular party list) has doubled from 67 to 159. This may
be the lingering impact of Independent European Parliamentary
candidate Indrek Tarand's surprising upset in the June 2009 MEP
election. Political party vilification in the press combined with
the fallout of some recent corruption scandals may have reduced the
viability of straight party lists in the eyes of some candidates.
However, this is contrasted with the high number of sitting MPs, 88
of 101, running for local council seats. In the past, MPs could
hold both a seat in parliament and a seat on a town council. Now
MPs cannot hold both jobs, but still run in order to lend the local
lists name recognition. MPs running tell us they will stay on in
parliament and cede their local seats to others on their party list
if they win locally.



E-voting Quickly Surpasses Previous Counts


4. (U) Estonia's e-voters have also been casting ballots in ever
greater numbers. This is the fourth election in which Estonians can
cast their ballots online or via cell phone. Estonians can cast
electronic votes up to a week before the elections, and can
repeatedly change their vote as desired. If an Estonian is unhappy
with his e-vote, he or she can cast a paper ballot on election day
that trumps any virtual vote (allowing Estonians to actually "vote
early, and vote often"). In the first five days of on-line
voting more than 158,000 e-votes were cast (representing 14.5% of
eligible voters),more than during June's European parliamentary
elections.

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The Race in Tallinn


5. (U) Polling in early October places Center's support in Tallinn
at around 35 percent. This level of support would give Center
approximately 49 of the 79 seats in the city council. The nearest
contender is the Reform Party (the Prime Minister's party)
garnering about 10 percent of voters or approximately 14 seats.
Pro Patria and Res Publica Union (IRL) and the Social Democrats are
only polling at around 6 percent of the vote, and the Greens and
People's Union even less. In this scenario, the Center Party
would rule the council outright, and not need any coalition
parties.


6. (U) The Center Party maintains its overwhelming lock on
Russian-speaking voters in Tallinn (approximately 150,000, or
almost half of Tallinn's voters),and Center is the only party that
has made serious efforts to woo Russian voters. This outreach
risks a backlash, however, among Estonian voters, and it has been
reported that while 70 percent of Russian speakers said they would
vote for Center, only 10 percent of ethnic Estonians in Tallinn
said they would do so.


7. (U) Edgar Savisaar, Center's leader and current Mayor of
Tallinn, has predicted a big win for his party and framed the
outcome as a "people's vote of no confidence" in the governing
coalition. In truth, a Center Party landslide in Tallinn could
have the opposite effect: to sustain the governing coalition of the
Reform Party and IRL. Any landslide would come from the support of
Russian-speaking voters, many of whom are not Estonian citizens and
thus cannot vote in national elections. Because just over half of
Estonia's Russian-speakers are not Estonian citizens, Center is
likely to do quite a bit better in local elections than it would in
any national poll. Likewise, if Center wins an outright majority
of seats, it will have little to offer a prospective coalition
partner. (NOTE: After a big win in the 2005 city council
elections in Tallinn, the Center Party could not interest any of
the other major parties in joining a coalition as their weight on
the council, 32 of 63 seats, precluded any real power sharing.)


8. (U) By law, parties and candidates are barred from political
advertising for one month prior to any election. The Center Party
has engaged in a number of dubious activities that (barely) skirt
this restriction. Center has erected ten tents around Tallinn to
assist voters with internet voting, arguing this does not
constitute advertising, but is a service to voters. Naturally,
confused voters will vote in these tents, with Center Party
assistance. Center also held a contest giving a trip to Egypt and
free computers for a few lucky survey respondents, hosted free
tours and concerts for rally participants who agreed to be bused in
from outside of Tallinn, provided free potatoes and firewood as
part of the city's assistance program (although we have been told
the potatoes and firewood were only rented for display purposes),
and sent Savisaar and other key city council members to Moscow in
September - to demonstrate Savisaar's concern or Russian speakers.
To also appeal to ethnic Estonians, several Center Party members in
parliament made a great show of castigating the Foreign Minister
and Justice Minister over their involvement in a recent scandal
resulting from the lifting of a Schengen visa ban on Russian Duma
member Sergei Markov (reftel).


9. (U) The large amount of undecided voters in Tallinn is not a
new phenomenon in Estonian politics, but there is no pattern to
predict how they will break in this election. Many of them may be
supporters of some of the smaller parties representing the
Russian-speaking community that have emerged recently in Tallinn
(septel). Others perhaps are supporters of parties that are
polling in very low numbers, such as the Social Democrats or
Greens, who are waiting to see what sort of electoral unions and
alliances are formed.

Outside of Tallinn:

Tartu


10. (SBU) Estonia's second city, and seat of the major
university, has been a Reform Party stronghold for 12 years.
Current Prime Minister Andrus Ansip and Minister of Culture Laine
Jaanes both served as mayor of Tartu, maintaining very strong
popularity ratings throughout their terms. In a recent meeting

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with the ChargC),Incumbent Mayor Urmas Kruuse appeared confident
and stated that he believed Reform would win again, if not by
previous margins of victory. There is no Russian-speaking
dimension to this election. Russian speakers in Tartu are few in
number and generally well-assimilated.

Russian Support in Narva


11. (SBU) Mikhail Stalnuhin, Chairman of the Narva City Council,
recently told Pol/Econ Chief that his Center Party will sweep the
local elections. Center received 59 percent of the vote in Narva
in 2005, and Stalnuhin predicts Center will do better this year.
Stalnuhin could well be right, 97 percent of Narva's population is
Russian-speaking - Center's natural constituency, and PM Ansip's
2007 decision to relocate the Bronze Soldier war memorial in
Tallinn lingers in the minds of Russian-speaking voters, who saw
the move as anti-Russian.


12. (C) Stalnuhin also predicted elections in Narva would be dirty.
He complained that local police had twice harassed local volunteers
for a Center Party candidate. Sergei Stepanov, editor of the local
Russian-language newspaper Narvskaya Gazeta (and no friend to
Stalnuhin),however, told us that Stalnuhin is also involved in
dirty politics, and is receiving support from sources in Russia.
Stepanov claimed that since September 1, Russian television
stations in St. Petersburg (which are widely watched in Narva) have
broadcast a minimum of three times a week positive stories about
Narva and Stalnuhin. (COMMENT: This is in stark contrast to the
usual Russian media stories about Estonia, which are uniformly
negative. END COMMENT.) Stepanov also claimed the Russian
Consulate in Narva provides the Center Party with money and, more
importantly, allows the Center Party to refer names to the
consulate for expeditious passport issuance (Stepanov said the
consulate normally takes three months to issue a Russian passport,
but will do it within a week for names referred by Center).
Stepanov claimed Stalnuhin uses city funds directly for election
purposes, but also solicits "donations" from firms that want city
contracts, to support his party in elections. (COMMENT: We have
heard similar allegations about Savisaar in Tallinn. END COMMENT.)
Stepanov added that his newspaper has come under pressure because
he did not endorse the Center Party, and that his advertisers have
been told they will lose government contracts unless they stop
advertising in Narvskaya Gazeta. For his part, Stalnuhin accused
Narvskaya Gazeta of playing dirty after it published an editorial
supporting the Social Democrats.

Challenge in Parnu


13. (U) The nature of the governing coalition in Parnu, led by the
Center Party with Reform and an electoral union as junior partners,
makes it a little more difficult to predict who will fare the best
in this election. Incumbent Mayor Mart Viisitamm is quite popular
and could be returned to office, but in what manner of coalition is
quite difficult to predict. According to local contacts, Viisitamm
also faces this year an independent list led by the popular
Governor of Parnu County. Political parties are not well
established in the Parnu area, so many voters remain undecided
until the end, and often vote for someone they know (which is
common in Estonia, where everybody knows everybody else).
Therefore this independent list has a real chance of unseating the
incumbent.

Unexpected Heat in Rakvere


14. (U) An unexpectedly hot race is in Rakvere, the seat of West
Viru County. This normally quiet town of almost 17,000 has a
popular incumbent mayor (and a good Embassy contact). Center Party
politicos, however, have imported well- known media
personality/entertainer Peeter Vosa from Tallinn to run as a local
candidate. Post anticipates that incumbent Mayor Andres Jaadla of
the Reform Party will fend off this challenge as he remains fairly
popular and is recognized as a capable local politician who has
done much to promote development in the city.

No Great Impact on Foreign Affairs or our bilateral relationship


15. (U) COMMENT. At the end of the day, this is an exercise in
democracy that will have very little effect on our bilateral
relationship with Estonia. There are no foreign policy

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considerations at play; it's all about jobs and pensions, and
positioning for the 2011 parliamentary elections - which will have
a foreign policy emphasis. Likewise the results of this election
will not translate directly to the next parliamentary elections.
Non-citizen residents are allowed to vote in local, but not
national, elections. Therefore Center will most likely fare far
better in these local elections, with an additional 200,000
non-citizen Russian-speakers eligible to vote, than they would in
parliamentary elections.
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