Identifier
Created
Classification
Origin
09TAIPEI30
2009-01-09 07:39:00
CONFIDENTIAL
American Institute Taiwan, Taipei
Cable title:
TAIWAN DEPUTY NSA OFFERS INITIAL READOUT ON HU
how-toVZCZCXRO2901 OO RUEHCN RUEHGH RUEHVC DE RUEHIN #0030/01 0090739 ZNY CCCCC ZZH O 090739Z JAN 09 FM AIT TAIPEI TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC IMMEDIATE 0679 INFO RUEHOO/CHINA POSTS COLLECTIVE IMMEDIATE RUEKJCS/SECDEF WASHINGTON DC IMMEDIATE RUEAIIA/CIA WASHDC IMMEDIATE RHEFDIA/DIA WASHINGTON DC IMMEDIATE RUEHGV/USMISSION GENEVA IMMEDIATE 1883 RUCNDT/USMISSION USUN NEW YORK IMMEDIATE 0102 RHEHAAA/NATIONAL SECURITY COUNCIL WASHINGTON DC IMMEDIATE RHHMUNA/USPACOM HONOLULU HI IMMEDIATE
C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 TAIPEI 000030
SIPDIS
E.O. 12958: DECL: 01/07/2019
TAGS: PREL MARR PGOV TW CH
SUBJECT: TAIWAN DEPUTY NSA OFFERS INITIAL READOUT ON HU
JINTAO TAIWAN SPEECH
Classified By: The Director for Reasons 1.4(b/d)
Summary
-------
C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 TAIPEI 000030
SIPDIS
E.O. 12958: DECL: 01/07/2019
TAGS: PREL MARR PGOV TW CH
SUBJECT: TAIWAN DEPUTY NSA OFFERS INITIAL READOUT ON HU
JINTAO TAIWAN SPEECH
Classified By: The Director for Reasons 1.4(b/d)
Summary
--------------
1. (C) Deputy National Security Advisor Ho Sze-yin offered
the Deputy Director his preliminary assessment of Hu
Jintao,s &six point8 speech on Taiwan. Although the
speech repeats many earlier themes and phrases, President Ma
is likely to focus on the signs of flexibility it offers.
The speech seems to confirm that China is ready to allow
Taiwan to become an WHA observer, but Taiwan cannot accept a
single-year solution, Ho suggested. The DPP remains deeply
skeptical, despite Hu,s implicit recognition of the need to
include the opposition in the cross-strait rapprochement
process. End Summary.
2. (C) During a January 8 meeting with the DDIR, Taiwan
Deputy NSA Ho Sze-yin offered what he underscored was his
personal, initial response to PRC President Hu Jintao,s
&Six Point8 speech marking the 30th anniversary of the
PRC,s &Message to Taiwan Compatriots.8 Overall, Ho said,
he was encouraged by the signs of new flexibility in Hu's
remarks and by a number of wholly new ideas that suggest
China is willing to continue to pursue progress in
cross-strait relations. While President Ma and NSA Su Chi
likely share this view, they will take their time in making a
formal response, Ho said. (Note: Ho called DDIR the next day
to confirm that Ma shares his views and will eventually issue
a formal response.).
"Avoiding Unnecessary Friction" Bodes Well for WHA
-------------- --------------
3. (C) Ho cited the fifth of Hu,s six points as an example
of new Chinese thinking. Although it couched the issue as
one of "avoiding internal friction" and not an international
issue, by calling for "pragmatic consulations" on Taiwan's
participation in international organizations, the speech
clearly signaled China's readiness to reach an accommodation
on WHA observership. Ho noted that this squared with signals
Taipei had received from PRC academics and other sources. In
an aside, Ho observed that, from a domestic political
perspective, Taiwan needed more than a one-time offer to take
part in the WHA meeting in May. If that is all China can
offer, he said, Taiwan should not accept it. Ho demurred on
the question of whether the NSC had a direct channel to
discuss WHA and other &international space8 issues with
China, but said he had made his views on the issue clear to
visiting PRC academics.
DPP Reference Means Beijing Sees Need to Include Opposition?
-------------- --------------
4. (C) Hu,s speech also was groundbreaking in that, for the
first time, a formal Chinese document on Taiwan referred
explicitly to the DPP, Ho said. While the language in Hu,s
fourth point focused on the need for the opposition to drop
its pro-independence stance, the fact that the DPP is
mentioned at all shows China understands that it cannot
simply ignore such a large minority on Taiwan. For their
part, DPP politicians, green-leaning academics and other
critics have paid the most attention to the first of Hu,s
six points, which addresses the idea of &one China.8 Even
here, though, Ho argued, there is a difference in the nuance
of the PRC language. Although the official English version
Hu,s speech refers to the One China &principle,8 the
Chinese text ) somewhat ungrammatically ) speaks only of
&abiding by One China8 (keshou yige zhongguo). Ho's
assessment was that the speech was an effort to carve out
maximum flexibility for the pragmatic, but difficult, process
that may lie ahead.
Comment
--------------
5. (C) President Ma and his NSC advisors have clearly studied
Hu's speech very carefully. Ho Sze-yin offered his reactions
while reading from a text that laid out point-by-point and
side-by-side Hu's "six points" and Jiang Zemin's "eight
points" issued in 1995. He said some of Hu's points were
clearly intended for a domestic (mainland) audience, but
there is new flexibility in this latest iteration of China's
Taiwan policy. He mused, ironically, that the 2005
TAIPEI 00000030 002 OF 002
anti-seccession law might have actually given Hu more room
for flexibility. The Director has scheduled a meeting with
NSC chief Su Chi next Monday (January 12) and will follow up
further on this subject.
SYOUNG
SIPDIS
E.O. 12958: DECL: 01/07/2019
TAGS: PREL MARR PGOV TW CH
SUBJECT: TAIWAN DEPUTY NSA OFFERS INITIAL READOUT ON HU
JINTAO TAIWAN SPEECH
Classified By: The Director for Reasons 1.4(b/d)
Summary
--------------
1. (C) Deputy National Security Advisor Ho Sze-yin offered
the Deputy Director his preliminary assessment of Hu
Jintao,s &six point8 speech on Taiwan. Although the
speech repeats many earlier themes and phrases, President Ma
is likely to focus on the signs of flexibility it offers.
The speech seems to confirm that China is ready to allow
Taiwan to become an WHA observer, but Taiwan cannot accept a
single-year solution, Ho suggested. The DPP remains deeply
skeptical, despite Hu,s implicit recognition of the need to
include the opposition in the cross-strait rapprochement
process. End Summary.
2. (C) During a January 8 meeting with the DDIR, Taiwan
Deputy NSA Ho Sze-yin offered what he underscored was his
personal, initial response to PRC President Hu Jintao,s
&Six Point8 speech marking the 30th anniversary of the
PRC,s &Message to Taiwan Compatriots.8 Overall, Ho said,
he was encouraged by the signs of new flexibility in Hu's
remarks and by a number of wholly new ideas that suggest
China is willing to continue to pursue progress in
cross-strait relations. While President Ma and NSA Su Chi
likely share this view, they will take their time in making a
formal response, Ho said. (Note: Ho called DDIR the next day
to confirm that Ma shares his views and will eventually issue
a formal response.).
"Avoiding Unnecessary Friction" Bodes Well for WHA
-------------- --------------
3. (C) Ho cited the fifth of Hu,s six points as an example
of new Chinese thinking. Although it couched the issue as
one of "avoiding internal friction" and not an international
issue, by calling for "pragmatic consulations" on Taiwan's
participation in international organizations, the speech
clearly signaled China's readiness to reach an accommodation
on WHA observership. Ho noted that this squared with signals
Taipei had received from PRC academics and other sources. In
an aside, Ho observed that, from a domestic political
perspective, Taiwan needed more than a one-time offer to take
part in the WHA meeting in May. If that is all China can
offer, he said, Taiwan should not accept it. Ho demurred on
the question of whether the NSC had a direct channel to
discuss WHA and other &international space8 issues with
China, but said he had made his views on the issue clear to
visiting PRC academics.
DPP Reference Means Beijing Sees Need to Include Opposition?
-------------- --------------
4. (C) Hu,s speech also was groundbreaking in that, for the
first time, a formal Chinese document on Taiwan referred
explicitly to the DPP, Ho said. While the language in Hu,s
fourth point focused on the need for the opposition to drop
its pro-independence stance, the fact that the DPP is
mentioned at all shows China understands that it cannot
simply ignore such a large minority on Taiwan. For their
part, DPP politicians, green-leaning academics and other
critics have paid the most attention to the first of Hu,s
six points, which addresses the idea of &one China.8 Even
here, though, Ho argued, there is a difference in the nuance
of the PRC language. Although the official English version
Hu,s speech refers to the One China &principle,8 the
Chinese text ) somewhat ungrammatically ) speaks only of
&abiding by One China8 (keshou yige zhongguo). Ho's
assessment was that the speech was an effort to carve out
maximum flexibility for the pragmatic, but difficult, process
that may lie ahead.
Comment
--------------
5. (C) President Ma and his NSC advisors have clearly studied
Hu's speech very carefully. Ho Sze-yin offered his reactions
while reading from a text that laid out point-by-point and
side-by-side Hu's "six points" and Jiang Zemin's "eight
points" issued in 1995. He said some of Hu's points were
clearly intended for a domestic (mainland) audience, but
there is new flexibility in this latest iteration of China's
Taiwan policy. He mused, ironically, that the 2005
TAIPEI 00000030 002 OF 002
anti-seccession law might have actually given Hu more room
for flexibility. The Director has scheduled a meeting with
NSC chief Su Chi next Monday (January 12) and will follow up
further on this subject.
SYOUNG