FORMER DPP PREMIER SU TSENG-CHANG ON ELECTION

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 TAIPEI 000293

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 03/16/2019
TAGS: PGOV PINR PREL TW CH
SUBJECT: FORMER DPP PREMIER SU TSENG-CHANG ON ELECTION
PROSPECTS, CROSS-STRAIT TIES

Classified By: The Director for reasons 1.4(b/d)


1. (C) Summary. Despite President Ma,s unpopularity, the
opposition DPP will have a hard time in December elections
holding the offices it now controls, former Premier and DPP
party elder Su Tseng-chang told the Director March 13. Su
would not confirm whether he will seek the nod for the Taipei
county magistrate nomination, but said many are calling on
him to run and predicted the DPP would likely choose a party
heavyweight as its candidate. On cross-Strait issues, Su
criticized the Ma administration for focusing more on what to
call an economic agreement with China than on its content.
End Summary.

Domestic Politics: DPP Regrouping for December Races
-------------- --------------


2. (C) Despite President Ma,s low approval ratings, the
Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) faces a tough challenge in
the December local elections, DPP party elder Su Tseng-chang
told the Director March 13. Although Taiwan,s difficult
economic situation is weighing on the KMT, there is every
reason to expect the trial of former President Chen Shui-bian
will generate bad publicity for the DPP for years as it works
its way through the courts, Su said. A key question will be
whether the many voters who believe Chen is guilty will
decide that the DPP is also corrupt. Under current
circumstances, Su suggested, it will be a challenge for the
DPP to retain the six county magistrate and mayoral seats it
now holds, let alone make inroads into the 18 seats held by
KMT candidates.


3. (C) Su would not confirm whether he would seek the DPP
nomination for Taipei county magistrate, which he agreed was
the key race in the December elections. He admitted he is
being pressed by members of the party to stand as a
candidate. For now, the DPP will delay identifying a
candidate until the KMT puts forward a nominee. Hinting that
he might well run, Su noted that, the longer the DPP takes to
name a candidate, the more likely the party would nominate
someone who, like himself, already enjoyed strong name
recognition. He stressed that, if the KMT puts forward
incumbent but incompetent Chou His-wei, &any DPP candidate
would win.8 Su confirmed that former DPP Secretary General
Wu Nai-jen is returning to DPP headquarters to help Chairman
Tsai Ing-wen with organization and election preparations.

Cross-Strait: Worry about the Content, Not the Name
-------------- --------------


4. (C) On cross-Strait relations, Su expressed concern about
the pace of rapprochement but, more importantly, that
President Ma is not adequately explaining what is under
discussion. The name of the economic agreement Taiwan
pursues with China is not important, Su stressed. People do
not care whether a deal is called an Economic Cooperation
Framework Agreement (ECFA) instead of a Closer Economic
Cooperation Agreement (CECA). What they care about ) and
what the President is not revealing ) is what such an
agreement will cover. Until the President does a much better
job of explaining what the deal will include, the DPP will
continue to oppose it. The timing of the deal is
inappropriate, Su added, arguing that seeking to link Taiwan
to a slumping Chinese economy made bad policy sense.
Finally, he noted, if the EFCA relaxes tariffs on
manufacturing and agriculture it will have a severe impact on
those sectors of the Taiwan economy.


5. (C) Moreover, since there are likely to once again be
protests if PRC Association for Relations Across the Taiwan
Strait (ARATS) head Chen Yunlin visits Taiwan in December, Ma
needs to learn the lesson from Chen,s last trip. Then, Su
said, the KMT put the police in a bad position, using them in
a way that guaranteed that they would clash with protesters.
Part of the problem, Su admitted, was Tsai Ing-wen,s
inexperience organizing and managing DPP protests.

Comment
--------------


6. (C) Su may be the most respected member of the DPP today,
with other founding members of the party from 1986 either
retired, disgraced or -- in the case of President Chen
Shui-bian -- in jail. Most pundits, including senior KMT
contacts, believe Su will ultimately stand as DPP candidate
for populous Taipei county this winter. We've been told if
Su were to win big (he was elected twice as Taipei County
Magistrate already),he would become the leading candidate to
represent the DPP for President in 2012. The risk, of
course, is that running and losing could end his political

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