Identifier
Created
Classification
Origin
09TAIPEI280
2009-03-13 08:54:00
CONFIDENTIAL
American Institute Taiwan, Taipei
Cable title:  

MIAOLI COUNTY GEARS UP FOR BELLWETHER LEGISLATIVE

Tags:  PGOV PREL CH TW 
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C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 TAIPEI 000280 

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 03/13/2019
TAGS: PGOV PREL CH TW
SUBJECT: MIAOLI COUNTY GEARS UP FOR BELLWETHER LEGISLATIVE
BY-ELECTION ON SATURDAY

Classified By: AIT Director Stephen M. Young,
Reasons: 1.4 (b/d)


C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 TAIPEI 000280

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 03/13/2019
TAGS: PGOV PREL CH TW
SUBJECT: MIAOLI COUNTY GEARS UP FOR BELLWETHER LEGISLATIVE
BY-ELECTION ON SATURDAY

Classified By: AIT Director Stephen M. Young,
Reasons: 1.4 (b/d)



1. (SBU) Summary: Voters in Miaoli County's first district
head to the polls on Saturday, March 14 to replace KMT
legislator Lee I-ting, whose 2008 election was nullified
because of vote buying. The KMT nominee, Lee's wife Chen
Luan-ying, is heavily favored to defeat her opponent, a
former KMT member running as an independent. The DPP, which
has always had difficulty contending in Miaoli, did not enter
its own candidate and is also struggling to identify a viable
candidate for the December 5 county magistrate election. Low
voter turnout or a surprisingly close race would be troubling
signs for the KMT as it prepares for island-wide elections in
December. End Summary.

March 14 Legislative By-Election
--------------


2. (C) Miaoli KMT Chairman Lee Chin-sung told AIT that Chen
Luan-ying is counting on voters who supported her husband and
want her to follow through on his campaign pledges. Many
voters feel sorry for Lee, believing he should not have been
removed from office, and thus will vote for his wife. Lee
I-ting will work for his wife if she is elected, enabling
constituents to enjoy service from both of them. Another
important factor favoring Chen is the strong support she is
receiving from Magistrate Liu Cheng-hung, one of Taiwan's
most popular local leaders, according to public opinion polls
by more than one media organization. Chairman Lee also
suggested voters will understand that, having its two
legislators and its magistrate from the ruling KMT will
increase Miaoli's chances of securing the limited funding for
local projects available from central government ministries.
According to the KMT chairman, the polling his party has
contracted indicates that Chen maintains a 5-7 percentage
point lead in the race.


3. (C) Former Miaoli DPP Chairman Hsu Chin-jung agreed with
the KMT's prediction that Chen is likely to win the
by-election, noting that independent candidate Kang Shih-ju
had declined the DPP's advice to run a hard-hitting campaign
underscoring Taiwan identity themes. DPP polling shows Kang
holding a slight but diminishing lead, Hsu said, but KMT vote

buying and voter mobilization will give Chen the edge on
election day, he predicted. (Note: In a separate meeting,
DPP Organization Department Director Wu Hsiang-jung told AIT
the party's polling indicates voters expect Chen to win even
though they rate Kang as more qualified.)


4. (C) Members of Kang's campaign team explained to AIT that
their candidate, despite facing an uphill battle against the
KMT organization (including KMT vote buying),is intent on
running a clean campaign. Kang is playing up his experience
and capabilities in contrast to Chen, whom the KMT nominated
solely because she is Lee I-ting's wife. (Comment: In a
similar case in Taitung County, Magistrate Wu Chun-li
resigned in January 2006 after being suspended from office
for a corruption conviction. Wu had already divorced his
wife, Kuang Li-chen, a legal requirement to appoint her as
deputy magistrate. Following Wu's resignation, Kuang ran and
won the by-election for Taitung magistrate. Despite the
legal divorce, it was apparent during the Director's recent
visit to Taitung that Kuang and Wu are very much still a
couple and are working together.) Although Kang has accepted
limited assistance from some DPP members, he is keen on
maintaining his independence to gain the broadest possible
support from Blue, Green, and centrist voters in a
Blue-majority district. Being close to the DPP would not be
an advantage in this Blue-majority district, the campaign
workers explained. (Note: After losing to Lee I-ting in the
2008 KMT LY primary, Kang supported the DPP candidate,
resulting in the suspension of his KMT party rights. So
political grudges are also a factor in this election.)

Incumbent Favored in December County Magistrate Election
-------------- --------------


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5. (C) The DPP is having difficulty recruiting a viable
candidate to run against the very popular KMT incumbent Liu
Cheng-hung in the December 5 county magistrate election.
According to contacts in Miaoli, Liu's popularity stems from
his hard working style and a series of local highway and
other projects that the local government has announced.
While the local KMT chairman said these projects showed Liu's
effectiveness, compared to previous magistrates, our DPP
contact suggested the projects have mostly been "hype" so
far. DPP and KMT contacts agreed that candidates in need
strong roots in Miaoli, where local factions still play a
role.


6. (C) Admitting the DPP's chances in the magistrate race are
poor, former Miaoli Chairman Hsu explained the party has to
have a credible candidate heading a ticket that will also
include other DPP candidates running for lower level offices.
The DPP was originally considering trying to recruit Soochow
University Dean of Political Science Lo Chih-cheng to run for
magistrate, Hsu explained, but that would put Lo in a
difficult position because of his father's close connections
to KMT Magistrate Liu Cheng-hung. The party is now leaning
toward DPP Social Movement Department Director Yang
Chang-chen, Hsu said.

Yeh Chu-lan
--------------


7. (C) Both DPP and KMT contacts dismissed former
Presidential Office Secretary General Yeh Chu-lan as a
possible candidate for magistrate. Although a Hakka and a
Miaoli native, Yeh's political career has been entirely
outside the county, the former DPP Miaoli chairman noted,
adding that it would look very bad for a former senior
government official to be defeated in a local election in
Miaoli. According to the KMT local chairman, voters in
Miaoli do not have high regard for Yeh, believing she did
little or nothing for the county when she had the opportunity
to direct funding its way, for example, when she served as
Minister of Transportation.

The Hakka Factor
--------------


8. (C) In discussing Miaoli politics, KMT and DPP contacts
both pointed to the strong support for the KMT from the
"northern Hakka," who live in Taoyuan, Hsinchu, and Miaoli
Counties. The northern Hakka have a distinct identity and
language, which creates a gap between them and the
Taiwanese-speaking DPP, they explained. In addition,
marriages were common between northern Hakka women and
mainlanders who came to Taiwan around 1949. Many of these
mainlanders worked in the KMT government or organizations and
transmitted their KMT identity to their Hakka wives' families
and relatives. Our contacts noted that, in contrast to the
northern Hakka, the "southern Hakka" in Pingtung and nearby
areas are able to speak Taiwanese, have more interaction with
Taiwanese communities, and are more supportive of the DPP.

Comment
--------------


9. (C) Although political observers here are expecting KMT
candidate Chen Luan-ying to win the Miaoli by-election on
Saturday, they point out that this election (and another
by-election in Taipei City on March 28) will still be a
significant political indicator. In a meeting with AIT two
weeks ago, KMT Secretary General Wu Den-yih voiced some
concern about the outcome, pointing out that Kang would
likely garner almost all of the DPP votes and may continue to
have supporters among KMT voters. If turnout rates are
exceptionally low, that could be an indication of public
dissatisfaction with the government and the political
situation. Even if the KMT wins, a relatively narrow margin
of victory could indicate voters' dissatisfaction with the
ruling party. An upset victory by Kang would of course be a
shock to the KMT establishment.
YOUNG