KMT VICE CHAIRMAN WU DEN-YIH DISCUSSES ELECTION

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 TAIPEI 000228

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 03/02/2019
TAGS: PGOV TW
SUBJECT: KMT VICE CHAIRMAN WU DEN-YIH DISCUSSES ELECTION
PLANNING, PARTY POLITICS, AND PRESIDENT MA

Classified By: AIT Acting Director Robert S. Wang,
Reasons: 1.4 (b/d)


1. (C) Summary: Ruling KMT Vice Chairman Wu Den-yih told the
Acting Director on February 25 his party cannot take lightly
two upcoming legislative by-elections in Blue-majority Miaoli
County (March 14) and Taipei City (March 28),given public
dissatisfaction with the government over the economic
downturn. The December 5 elections for county magistrates
and city mayors will be a bigger challenge, especially the
contest in Taipei County, Wu indicated. Current KMT
Magistrate Chou Hsi-wei has much lower polling numbers than
the potential DPP candidate, former Premier Su Tseng-chang.
Nonetheless, the KMT is likely to field a stronger candidate
than Chou, and Su's chances of victory are only 50-50, Wu
said. On the intra-party election for KMT chairman this
summer, he suggested that President Ma Ying-jeou has not yet
made a decision on whether he wants to take up the position
himself or have current Chairman Wu Poh-hsiung continue for
another term. End Summary.

Legislative By-Elections
--------------


2. (C) KMT Vice Chairman and Secretary General Wu Den-yih,
the party's senior election strategist, told the Acting
Director on February 25 that the party is facing an
unfavorable atmosphere resulting from the economic downturn,
rising unemployment, and public dissatisfaction with the
government. As a result, the KMT cannot take for granted the
March 28 Legislative Yuan (LY) by-election in Taipei's Da'an
District, even though the party normally wins by a very wide
margin in this district. (Note: Another complication is that
independent Yao Li-ming, supported by the Deep Blue New Party
(NP),has joined the contest, which could split the "Blue
vote" and give the DPP a chance. However, the KMT can be
expected to urge Blue supporters to "dump" Yao and "save" the
KMT candidate, a strategy that has worked for them
previously, for example, in the 2006 Taipei mayoral election.
Yao, a former NP legislator, was one of the leaders of the
2006 "Red Shirt" movement that called for the resignation of
then-President Chen Shui-bian. End Note.)


3. (C) In the other upcoming LY by-election, in Miaoli on
March 14, the political scene is complicated, Wu observed.
KMT candidate Chen Luan-ying, wife of the former legislator,
whose election was nullified because of vote buying, is not
well known and is not a strong campaigner. However, many
people will support her because they believe her husband was
wronged. She is opposed by Kang Shih-ju, a maverick KMT
local mayor running as an independent, who is being supported
by the DPP. Recently, Chen has increased her lead over Kang,
but still does not enjoy a safe margin.

December 5 Local Elections: Taipei County
--------------


4. (C) Turning to the December 5 local elections, Wu
acknowledged that Taipei County will be the most important
race and that former Premier Su Tseng-chang, the potential
DPP candidate, has a substantial advantage in current public
opinion polls. If Su runs and wins, he will become the sole
DPP "king," ending the period of competing kings and queens,
which included also former presidential candidate Frank
Hsieh, former Vice President Annette Lu, and former DPP
Chairman Yu Shyi-kun. However, Su will not be able to repeat
the strong record he had when he was magistrate from 1997 -

2004. At the time, Su was able to spend lavishly on popular
local projects throughout the county, leaving current KMT
Magistrate Chou Hsi-wei a large public debt headache. In
addition, Su will not have the budget resources or support
from the KMT central government that he enjoyed after the DPP
came into power in 2000.


5. (C) Despite his strong polling numbers, Su would at best
have a 50-50 chance of winning the Taipei County election, Wu
predicted. Pan-Blue supporters outnumber pan-Green
supporters in the county, and most local elected officials,
including mayors and legislators, are KMT, Wu explained.

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When Su ran for reelection in 2001, at the height of his
popularity, he managed to beat KMT-supported New Party
candidate Wang Chien-shien, who ran a weak campaign, by only
a 51-48 point margin. With the KMT now governing Taipei
County, Su will have difficulty convincing the county's local
politicians to support him. Moreover, Wu suggested, other
DPP heavyweights might work against Su, because a victory by
him could block their own hopes to run in the 2012
presidential election. He cited the example of Su-protege Wu
Ping-jui, a DPP legislative candidate in Taipei County in

2008. According to Wu Den-yih, Wu Ping-jui lost the election
owing to the machinations of a rival DPP local politician.


6. (C) Acknowledging KMT Magistrate Chou Hsi-wei's current
low standing in public opinion polls, Wu noted that Chou is
working to strengthen his record prior to the election, which
is still 9 months away. These efforts will help the KMT
candidate, whether it is Chou or someone else. Both parties
now are waiting for the other side to name their candidate.
According to Wu, there are virtually no limits on selecting
the strongest possible KMT candidate for the Taipei County
race, and there are two or three possible candidates, which
he declined to name. In a separate meeting, KMT Legislator
Lai Shyh-bao told poloff there were only three potential KMT
candidates who would have a chance of beating Su: Taichung
City Mayor Jason Hu, Taoyuan County Magistrate Eric Chu, and
Wu Den-yih himself.

Other Contests
--------------


7. (C) In addition to Taipei County, the KMT is facing
difficult elections in two or three other counties, Wu
suggested. Although he declined to provide details, others
have suggested the KMT may well lose Yilan County, could face
problems in Taitung and Nantou Counties, and also faces some
uncertainties in Changhua and Taichung Counties. Wu said the
decision on whether to merge Taichung City and County, which
would delay elections there for a year, will be up to the LY,
which would have to act by April 4 at the latest. However,
some legislators oppose the merger at this time, and Wu could
not predict whether the LY will approve the merger this
spring.

KMT and KMT-DPP Relations
--------------


8. (C) The public often blames the KMT for decisions made by
government officials over which the party has no influence,
Wu observed. Many people do not understand that, unlike
authoritarian times, there is now a clear distinction between
party and government. According to Wu, the current role of
the party is to manage election campaigns, work with the
party's LY caucus, and coordinate relations between party and
government. Wu suggested that the competitive relationship
between the KMT and DPP would make formal inter-party
dialogue difficult. However, it is important to maintain the
tacit consensus that both parties are working for the good of
Taiwan and engaging in healthy competition.

Ma as President of All the People, Not Just the KMT
-------------- --------------


9. (C) Ma Ying-jeou is the first KMT top leader not to serve
concurrently as party chairman, Wu noted. Ma came into
office wanting to be president of all the people, and not
just the leader of one party. However, Ma's approach means
that party officials see him as cool and aloof, while
supporters tend to see him as weak. Despite Ma's efforts to
reach out to the light Green, the pan-Green camp has opposed
him. Moreover, the KMT is weaker without his leadership, and
some KMT legislators have felt free to criticize the
president. That said, Ma has strengthened his efforts to
coordinate with the party and LY, including setting up a
five-member committee (president, vice president, premier,
party chairman, and LY speaker),which meets weekly. Rating
Ma's coordination with KMT legislators and the party, Wu gave
him a grade of 50-60 (out of 100) in the early months of his
presidency and 70-80 now.

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KMT Chairman Election
--------------


10. (C) Wu said candidate registration for the KMT chairman
election will take place in early June. This means President
Ma Ying-jeou and Chairman Wu Poh-hsiung will have to decide
what they want to do by late May. Wu Poh-hsiung will support
Ma if Ma wants to take up the chairman position. Wu
Poh-hsiung will also be agreeable if Ma wants him to continue
as chairman. A third option would be for Ma and Wu
Poh-hsiung to ask a third person to run for party chair,
However, the situation has not reached that point, Wu Den-yih
said, adding that he would respect whatever decision Ma and
Wu Poh-hsiung make. (Comment: Many observers here expect Ma,
who has not made a decision yet, to ask Wu to continue as
chairman.)

WANG