Identifier
Created
Classification
Origin
09TAIPEI201
2009-02-20 10:41:00
CONFIDENTIAL
American Institute Taiwan, Taipei
Cable title:  

KMT AND DPP BRACE FOR UPCOMING ELECTION CHALLENGES

Tags:  PGOV TW 
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C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 TAIPEI 000201 

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 02/20/2019
TAGS: PGOV TW
SUBJECT: KMT AND DPP BRACE FOR UPCOMING ELECTION CHALLENGES

Classified By: AIT Acting Director Robert S. Wang,
Reasons: 1.4 (b/d)

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 TAIPEI 000201

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 02/20/2019
TAGS: PGOV TW
SUBJECT: KMT AND DPP BRACE FOR UPCOMING ELECTION CHALLENGES

Classified By: AIT Acting Director Robert S. Wang,
Reasons: 1.4 (b/d)


1. (C) Summary: Currently enjoying a dominant position in
Taiwan politics, the ruling KMT is expected to do well in two
legislative by-elections in March. In early December,
however, the Ma Ying-jeou administration will face a much
tougher "mid-term exam" when elections are held for county
magistrates and city mayors. The December elections will
also be a barometer of the opposition DPP's efforts to begin
a comeback under moderate Chairperson Tsai Ing-wen. Both
major parties face challenges as they brace for battle, the
KMT because of public dissatisfaction over the economic
turndown and unfulfilled campaign promises, and the DPP owing
to factional infighting coupled with the effects of former
President Chen Shui-bian's corruption cases. While it is
much too early to predict how the December elections will
turn out, the DPP has an opportunity to make limited gains,
including winning back Taipei County. End Summary.

Minor Test in March Be-Elections
--------------


2. (C) The KMT is expected to prevail in two by-elections in
March to fill Legislative Yuan (LY) vacancies. Miaoli
County's first district will hold a by-election on March 14
to replace KMT legislator Lee E-ting, whose election was
nullified because of vote buying. The Miaoli by-election
will not be a direct contest between the KMT and DPP,
however, because the DPP, unable to identify a suitable
candidate, is backing an independent who bolted the KMT. DPP
Deputy Secretary General Hung Yao-fu told AIT the party is
intentionally downplaying this election, which it does not
expect to attract much media attention due to its remote
location. Pro-Green Soochow University Professor Lo
Chih-cheng, who comes from Miaoli's first district, predicted
to AIT that KMT candidate Chen Luan-ying -- Lee E-ting's wife
-- will win.


3. (C) The other by-election, in Taipei's Da'an District on
March 28, will attract greater attention from the
capital-based media. The KMT's Diane Lee, who defeated the
DPP's Luo Wen-chia by a 2-1 margin in January 2008, recently
resigned from the LY due to controversy over her citizenship.
A DPP victory in Da'an is very unlikely; the best showing
the party has made in this strongly Blue district was the 37

percent vote share it won in the 2004 presidential election.
Nonetheless, Hung Yao-fu said, the DPP will campaign
vigorously, attacking the credibility of the KMT over its
failure to address the Diane Lee controversy in a timely and
appropriate way. In a separate meeting, DPP spokesperson
Cheng Wen-tsang said the party will emphasize the need for a
DPP legislator in Taipei City (currently there are none) to
have democratic checks and balances.


4. (C) KMT Legislator Wu Yu-sheng predicted to AIT that
Chiang Nai-shin, his party's candidate in Da'an, will easily
beat the DPP's Chou Po-ya, noting that both candidates have
been members of the Taipei City Council for many years.
Although the pan-Blue New Party is also fielding a candidate
(Yao Li-ming),Wu doubted this would affect the outcome.
From previous bad experiences, pan-Blue voters realize they
cannot afford to vote for a third candidate, which could risk
handing the election to the DPP, Wu said. The DPP's Cheng
said his party's goal in Da'an is to make a better showing
than in previous elections in the district. However, new
polling by the pro-Blue TVBS television station indicates
that the KMT's Chiang leads the DPP's Chou by a 2-1 margin.
If the DPP is able to narrow this gap at all on election day,
the results will give a modest boost to party morale.

Major Mid-Term Exam in December Local Elections
-------------- --


5. (C) The KMT and DPP are now preparing for the major test
they will face in early December, when elections will be held
for county magistrates and city mayors, city and county
council members, and township and town chiefs. The KMT, then
in the opposition, scored major gains in the last round of
local elections (2005),capitalizing on then-party chairman

TAIPEI 00000201 002 OF 003


Ma Ying-jeou's clean image and the dramatic allegations of
DPP presidential office corruption. The election dynamics
are different this time. Now president, Ma Ying-jeou has
lost some luster, as evidenced by his anemic approval rating
in public opinion polls, 34.5 percent in mid-February.
Moreover, a number of mediocre KMT magistrates who rode into
office on Ma's coattails in 2005 have weak records and may be
vulnerable at the polls. The KMT, however, has some
advantages: strong base organizations in many areas and more
resources than the cash-strapped DPP. Currently, the KMT and
its allies hold 17 of the 23 cities and counties, while the
DPP has just 6, all in southern Taiwan. (Note: The 23 cities
and counties do not include Taipei and Kaohsiung Cities,
which have a higher status and will hold elections in
December 2010).


6. (C) There are now 18 county magistrate and 5 mayoral
positions up for election in December 2009, but this could
change. The KMT government has a plan to merge Taichung City
and County, elevating the new city to the same status as
Taipei and Kaohsiung Cities. If Taichung City and County are
merged, the current mayor and magistrate would stay in office
an extra year, and the election for the mayor of the new
enlarged Taichung City would be held in December 2010.
coinciding with the elections in Taipei and Kaohsiung Cities.
According to DPP Legislator Kuan Bi-ling, Interior Minister
Liao Liou-yi, a former magistrate of Taichung County, is
pushing strongly for the merger. KMT legislator Wu Yu-sheng
said the KMT-controlled LY is prepared to move quickly on
legislation for the merger, but he noted there are different
opinions within the KMT and the merger would involve ironing
out many complex details.

Nominations
--------------


7. (C) The DPP has selected candidates for 11 of the
upcoming 23 races and plans to name the remainder in March,
while the KMT plans to name its candidates in three stages
between March and June. Campaigning in earnest is expected
to begin around June. Both parties will fight to defend
their current holdings, the DPP in the south and the KMT
elsewhere. However, the two parties are also focused on
trying to win one or more districts away from their rival.
The DPP wants especially to recover Taipei County (DPP
governed from 1989 to 2005) and Yilan County (opposition
governed 1981-2005),and also has hopes in Nantou County.
The best chances for the KMT may lie in Yunlin and Chiayi
Counties, and the party is also interested in Kaohsiung
County, where it did well in the 2008 LY elections, and in
some districts where the DPP may not be fully unified.

Taipei County the Critical Race
--------------


8. (C) Our DPP and KMT contacts agree that the critical race
in December will be in Taipei County, popularly called
"Little Taiwan" because a large proportion of its population
comes from other areas scattered throughout Taiwan. With 3.8
million people, Taipei County is Taiwan's most populous
jurisdiction and geographically it virtually surrounds the
capital city. KMT legislator Wu Yu-sheng describes Taipei as
worth ten other counties in political significance as well as
population. Incumbent KMT Magistrate Chou Hsi-wei has a weak
record and consistently shows up near the bottom in public
opinion polls on Taiwan's magistrates and mayors.


9. (C) DPP leaders hope that former Premier Su Tseng-chang
will agree to run in Taipei County, where he was highly
regarded when he previously served as magistrate (1997-2004).
Hung Yao-fu, the DPP's leading election strategist, said
there is a 70-80 percent chance that Su will agree to enter
the Taipei County race. Hung stressed the strategic
importance of having Su, the DPP's star politician, topping
the party's slate of candidates. Regardless of whether he
wins, Su will energize other DPP candidates and supporters
island-wide, and he will force the KMT to focus most of its
efforts on Taipei County, making it easier for other DPP
candidates to win elsewhere.


TAIPEI 00000201 003 OF 003



10. (C) The KMT's Wu Yu-sheng suggested both parties are
playing a waiting game, hoping to see what the other side
does first before deciding their own candidate. According to
Wu, KMT internal polls indicate Su Tseng-chang would beat
Chou Hsi-wei by 20 percentage points. In his view, the KMT
would have to find another candidate to avoid certain defeat
if the DPP nominates Su. He added, however, that some within
the KMT, including Chou Hsi-wei, do not expect Su to enter
the Taipei County race, believing that Su wants to save
himself for the 2012 presidential election. A number of
contacts have suggested that if the KMT decides to dump Chou,
it will probably need to find a senior official position for
him as compensation.

Comment
--------------


11. (C) As it mounts efforts such as demonstrations and
conferences to challenge KMT policies, the DPP will face a
number of problems, including very limited party funds, the
continued media focus on Chen Shui-bian, intra-party
rivalries, and supporters' responsiveness to Chairperson
Tsai's intellectual style. The KMT also has its set of
problems, beginning with how to deal with the economic
downturn and rising unemployment. In addition to the
elections described above, KMT party members will be holding
an election this summer to select their next party chairman.
Although there have been some suggestions that Ma should
resume the chairmanship he left in 2006 when indicted for
alleged misuse of his Taipei mayoral special allowance, it
appears more likely that Wu Poh-hsiung will continue in the
post.
WANG