DPP CHAIRPERSON TSAI ING-WEN ON CROSS-STRAIT

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 TAIPEI 000183

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 02/18/2019
TAGS: PGOV PREL CH TW
SUBJECT: DPP CHAIRPERSON TSAI ING-WEN ON CROSS-STRAIT
ISSUES, JUDICIAL CASES, UPCOMING ELECTIONS

Classified By: AIT Director Stephen M. Young,
Reasons: 1.4 (b/d)


1. (C) Summary: DPP Chairperson Tsai Ing-wen told the
Director on February 17 that she was concerned about the lack
of transparency in the KMT government's dealings with Beijing
on WHA and a possible Comprehensive Economic Cooperation
Agreement (CECA). Tsai worried that President Ma, anxious to
show results, may make precedent-setting political
concessions that will damage Taiwan's interests. Tsai also
argued that the KMT government was intervening in the
judicial process against DPP figures, including two county
magistrates and former President Chen. Frustrated DPP
supporters are urging her to go "radical," Tsai said. The
Director urged Tsai to open a dialogue with President Ma to
improve the polarized political atmosphere. While not
entirely ruling out a dialogue, Tsai suggested that she and
Ma had differences over format and agenda, adding that she
had invited Ma to attend the Civil National Affairs
Conference being co-sponsored by the DPP and TSU this
weekend. On the December local elections, Tsai said the DPP
has an opportunity in Taipei County, but is in no hurry to
select a candidate. End Summary.


2. (C) On February 17, the Director called on DPP
Chairperson Tsai Ing-wen, who was accompanied by special
assistant Bikhim Hsiao and outgoing International Affairs
Director Lin Chen-wei. In preparation for his upcoming
consultations in Washington, the Director explained, he
wanted to hear the DPP perspective on the political situation
in Taiwan. The Director noted that in other meetings he had
gained a sense that the KMT may feel it needs to tread more
carefully on cross-Strait relations at this stage, perhaps
pending the outcome of Taiwan's quest for WHA observership.

WHA
---


3. (C) Tsai stressed DPP concern about the lack of
transparency in the KMT government's dealings with China on
the WHA issue. President Ma is promising to get something
good for Taiwan but without revealing the conditions. What
is worse, Taiwan's participation could be under PRC
sponsorship rather than as an independent actor. Because he
feels under pressure to produce results, Ma might go along
with whatever conditions China imposes, Tsai suggested. This
could turn into a nightmare if it became a precedent for
Taiwan's future participation in other international
organizations. The Director reviewed U.S. policy on
supporting Taiwan's meaningful participation in international
organizations limited to states. While Tsai said she
understood the statehood problem, the bottom line is that
Taiwan is not supposed to be a part of some other country.


4. (C) Asked about Ma's performance, Tsai suggested his
priority appears to be the short-term goal of raising his
approval rating in the polls. Rather than seeking long-term
solutions to Taiwan's economic problems, the government has
taken short-term and expensive economic measures.

CECA
--------------


5. (C) In addition, Tsai said, the Ma government recently
has been talking more and more about a cross-Strait
Comprehensive Economic Cooperation Agreement (CECA). Such an
agreement would have a major impact on Taiwan's economic and
political relations with China, but the public does not know
what CECA is, because of the lack of transparency. There are
rumors about confidential talks on this issue between the Ma
government and the Chinese, she added. Ma needs to explain
his intentions to the public. However, Ma seems to want to
keep the cross-Strait agenda, including CECA, out of the
Legislative Yuan (LY),the only place where the DPP can
exercise its opposition party function. Also, the KMT has
shown no willingness to hold dialogue with the DPP caucus,
and LY President Wang Jin-pyng, though friendly, is not
helpful and does not represent Ma.


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Chen Shui-bian
--------------


6. (C) The Chen Shui-bian legal drama is making life hard
for the DPP, Tsai admitted. The judiciary's handling of the
case is damaging morale and causing frustration within the
party. Tsai claimed to have reliable information that a
Deputy Minister of Justice is behind all of the
investigations that prosecutors have launched against DPP
figures, including Yunlin Magistrate Su Chih-fen and Chiayi
Magistrate Chen Ming-wen. The judicial process under the Ma
administration has become highly politicized, as evidenced by
very extensive leaks from the prosecutors, heavy publicity in
television talk shows, and prosecutors even putting on skits
to ridicule defendants. Tsai stressed the tremendous
pressure she has been under from frustrated DPP supporters,
who want her to go "radical." The party is hesitant to
launch, or discuss planning for, demonstrations, however,
because previous demonstrations led to government arrests and
investigations of DPP politicians, Tsai said.

Cross-Party Dialogue
--------------


7. (C) To improve the polarized political atmosphere, the
Director encouraged Tsai to find a way to talk to President
Ma Ying-jeou, noting that he had offered the same advice to
Ma. Tsai did not know whether Ma would accept her invitation
to attend the February 21-22 Civil National Affairs
Conference sponsored by the DPP and Taiwan Solidarity Union
(TSU). As leader, it was important for Ma to listen to
different voices, she suggested, adding that Ma's request for
an open-ended "chat" prior to the conference was
inappropriate. Her agreement to such a meeting would leave
frustrated supporters feeling betrayed, she maintained,
noting that the conference was intended to produce a common
position on important issues.


8. (C) Looking ahead to future presidential elections, the
Director urged the DPP to reassure Washington that it would
not return to the reckless positions adopted by the Chen
Shui-bian administration that had ignored U.S. interests and
heightened cross-Strait tensions. Tsai took the Director's
point and acknowledged there was room for the DPP to improve
its handling of relations with the U.S. and China, so long as
this did not mean major concessions to Beijing. The DPP has
established a China task force, which will review past
policies, and the party will probably develop a new plan for
managing relations with the U.S. and China. Tsai predicted
that the "political concessions" made by Ma to increase
cross-Strait stability will backfire, causing domestic
instability and tensions within Taiwan. Ma's cross-Strait
moves are also making it difficult to persuade DPP supporters
to give Tsai the flexibility needed to manage relations with
the U.S. and China.

Upcoming Elections
--------------


9. (C) Turning to upcoming elections, Tsai acknowledged it
will be very difficult for the DPP candidate, a senior city
councilor, to win the March 28 by-election in Taipei's Da'an
District (to fill the vacancy opened by Diane Lee's
resignation). In 2008, DPP candidate Luo Wen-jia won only
one-third of the votes in this heavily Blue district.
Speaking generally, Bikhim Hsiao explained that the DPP does
better in elections involving larger jurisdictions, for
example, county magistrates and city mayors, than in
legislative elections, because local constituent services are
a smaller factor. Ironically, she added, the presidency is
the easiest election for the DPP to contest.


10. (C) The Director asked about the December local
elections, especially Taipei County, where KMT Magistrate
Chou Hsi-wei appears vulnerable and either former Premier Su
Tseng-chang or Tsai could be a strong DPP contender.
Acknowledging the DPP's opportunity in Taipei County, Tsai
said the party was in no hurry to decide its candidate. The
KMT is making a mistake if its strategy is to wait for a DPP

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announcement before deciding whether to select a candidate
other than Chou Hsi-wei, Tsai argued. A new KMT candidate
would have too little time to gain the broad level of
exposure needed for an effective election campaign.

Comment
--------------


11. (C) Tsai clearly hoped the Director would convey to
Washington a sense of the DPP's frustration over several
issues: the party's current lack of political leverage, the
limited transparency surrounding President Ma's cross-Strait
policies, and the prosecutions of DPP political figures.
Despite such frustration, we do not expect the DPP to turn
radical under Tsai's moderate leadership and we do not detect
signs of possible political instability at this point.
Tsai's major task over the coming months will be to organize
a campaign for the December local elections that will
strengthen the DPP's political position and help restore
party morale. Note: Lin Chen-wei, who has been a valued
contact of AIT both previously as NSC official and recently
as DPP International Affairs Director, will move to Japan in
March to take up a three-year appointment at Hokkaido
University. We cannot help but wonder if the talented Lin is
abandoning ship as the problems Tsai described weigh heavily
on all party faithful.
SYOUNG