KMT TO HOLD COURSE ON CROSS-STRAITS POLICY

C O N F I D E N T I A L TAIPEI 001502

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 12/17/2019
TAGS: PINR PREL PGOV TW CH
SUBJECT: KMT TO HOLD COURSE ON CROSS-STRAITS POLICY

REF: TAIPEI 1437

Classified By: AIT Deputy Director Eric Madison. Reasons: 1.4 b/d


1. (C) Summary: The senior Kuomintang (KMT) official on
cross-Strait policy told the Deputy Director (DDIR) on
December 16 that the party's setback in local elections
earlier this month would not lead to substantive changes in
President Ma Ying-jeou's opening to China. Chang Jung-kung
said he believed the election results were due to
dissatisfaction with the style, not the substance, of the Ma
administration. In the near term, he said, Taiwan could
confidently increase cross-Strait economic ties without
risking pressure from China for political negotiations.
Chang also stated that the protocol to expand U.S. beef
imports had a significant negative effect on the KMT election
campaign. End Summary.

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NO CHANGE IN CHINA POLICY DESPITE ELECTION SETBACK
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2. (C) In the run-up to December 5 local elections, the
opposition Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) insisted the
vote should be considered a referendum on the Ma
administration. Opposition campaigners warned that the
rapprochement with China was dangerous for Taiwan autonomy,
and argued that signing a cross-Strait Economic Cooperation
Framework Agreement (ECFA) would come at the expense of
Taiwan farmers and wage-earners. KMT officials acknowledged
those arguments were effective and help explain why the party
did not do as well as expected. KMT Mainland Affairs
Department Director Chang Jung-kung told the DDIR at a
December 16 lunch discussion on cross-Strait relations that
voters were dissatisfied with the administration's style of
governance, not its policies. The opening to China would not
change, Chang said, but the government would work to improve
transparency and build consensus on subsequent moves to
expand ties with China. He stressed the importance of ECFA,
which he said was "necessary for Taiwan,s development."
Chang said Taiwan would have "greater opportunity" to
negotiate Free Trade Agreements with other countries,
including Southeast Asian neighbors, once ECFA was signed.


3. (C) Chang believed that China would much rather deal with
a KMT-led government than a DPP administration. As a result,
Chang said he did not expect Chinese President Hu Jintao
would risk undermining Ma,s standing at home by demanding
sensitive cross-Strait political negotiations before the 2012
presidential elections on Taiwan.

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BEEF IS AN IMPORTANT ISSUE TO VOTERS IN THE SOUTH
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4. (C) Chang noted that opposition to the U.S.-Taiwan
protocol to expand U.S. beef imports resonated in the rural
south, where the DPP historically has been strongest. Chang
said the government was unsuccessful in countering anti-beef
attacks from highly partisan underground radio stations and
on some popular television talk shows. The United States was
not the target of anger over the beef protocol, he said;
rather, voters were upset over what they believed was a lack
of transparency in the protocol negotiations. He added that
some voters believed the Ma administration,s perceived
acquiescence to unfavorable conditions in beef negotiations
bode ill for upcoming ECFA negotiations with China.
STANTON