Identifier
Created
Classification
Origin
09TAIPEI1419
2009-12-03 03:36:00
CONFIDENTIAL
American Institute Taiwan, Taipei
Cable title:  

YILAN COUNTY KEY BATTLEGROUND IN YEAR-END TAIWAN

Tags:  KDEM PGOV PREL TW 
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C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 TAIPEI 001419 

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 11/12/2019
TAGS: KDEM PGOV PREL TW
SUBJECT: YILAN COUNTY KEY BATTLEGROUND IN YEAR-END TAIWAN
ELECTIONS

REF: TAIPEI 1412

Classified By: Political Chief Dave Rank. Reasons: 1.4 b/d

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 TAIPEI 001419

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 11/12/2019
TAGS: KDEM PGOV PREL TW
SUBJECT: YILAN COUNTY KEY BATTLEGROUND IN YEAR-END TAIWAN
ELECTIONS

REF: TAIPEI 1412

Classified By: Political Chief Dave Rank. Reasons: 1.4 b/d


1. (C) Summary: The Yilan County magistrate race has emerged
as the key battleground in the Dec. 5 elections for 17 city
mayors and county magistrates. President Ma Ying-jeou has
campaigned repeatedly for the Kuomintang (KMT) incumbent, who
is facing a strong challenge from the opposition Democratic
Progressive Party (DPP) that traditionally does well in the
county. A KMT loss would be a political body blow to the
President and would give the DPP a boost as it works to
recover from painful losses in legislative and presidential
elections last year. End Summary

--------------
LONG A DPP STRONGHOLD
--------------


2. (SBU) PolOffs traveled to Yilan County on November 27 to
discuss upcoming elections with local political contacts.
Located along the east coast of Taiwan and bound on three
sides by mountains, Yilan is renown for its natural beauty
and strong eco-consciousness. Eschewing heavy industry and
leveraging its agricultural traditions and pristine
environment, Yilan chose to focus on developing tourism and
leisure industries. Although now easily accessible from the
Taiwan capital, Taipei, thanks to one of the world's longest
tunnels, Yilan's historic isolation long allowed the county
to develop without an overbearing influence from the dominant
KMT. Seen by the DPP as the birthplace of Taiwan democracy,
Yilan was once governed by the first non-KMT county
magistrate in Taiwan. Moreover, prior to the election in
2005, the DPP held the county magistracy for 24 consecutive
years.

--------------
THE CANDIDATES
--------------


3. (C) The KMT candidate, Lu Kuo-hua, benefited from a
pan-green split in 2005 to win the magistracy in the
traditionally pro-DPP county. This year, the DPP coalesced
behind one candidate, Lin Tsung-hsien, the director of Lotung
Township. Due to lack of KMT bench strength, when Lu won in
2005, he chose to keep many bureaucrats appointed by DPP
predecessors. Despite being the incumbent, Lu,s campaign has
been an uphill battle against entrenched DPP sympathies,
including within the bureaucracy. The result of what Lu,s

campaign manager called a DPP effort to belittle his
candidate,s achievements was that he was ranked 16 out of 23
Taiwan local county and city leaders in one survey. This was
in marked contrast to previous DPP Yilan magistrates who
often ranked in the top three and to Lin,s high approval
ratings in Lotung. Observers from across the political
spectrum agreed that Lu lacked the speaking skills and
political savvy of his DPP opponent.

--------------
KMT PAYING CLOSE ATTENTION TO YILAN ...
--------------


4. (C) The KMT appears to run the greatest risk of losing an
incumbent magistrate seat in three counties: Yilan, Hsinchu
and Hualien. In Hsinchu and Hualien, the main competitors
are independents who were expelled from the KMT for
challenging the party's chosen candidate. A defeat in Yilan,
on the other hand, would be a blue incumbent loss to a green
contender. By traveling to Yilan eight times through
December 2 to stump for Lu, President Ma (who also serves as
KMT Chairman) demonstrated the importance he attached to
holding on to the county magistracy. Lu,s campaign stated
that Ma, against the advice of some in his party, was giving
serious thought to spending election night in Yilan as a show
of support. Lu, his advisors said, had tried to embody Ma,s
ideal of an incorruptible, hardworking politician by
renouncing mud-slinging and by swearing to run a clean
campaign. Observers believed that the president personally
liked Lu and noted that the Ma administration pushed ahead
long-stalled investment plans for Yilan. A loss in Yilan
would likely be seen as evidence of Ma's inability to
campaign effectively for KMT candidates and would bring into
question his belief that clean KMT candidates can win

TAIPEI 00001419 002 OF 002


elections in the rough-and-tumble world of local politics.

--------------
... AS IS THE DPP
--------------


5. (C) Many DPP contacts, including Chairperson Tsai
Ing-wen, said that gaining the magistrate seat in Yilan along
with maintaining the party's hold in Yunlin, Pingtung and
Chiayi counties would be seen as a win in this round of
elections and a much-needed shot in the arm for the DPP. On
December 2, Tsai along with other DPP heavyweights held a
mass rally in Yilan to support Lin. The DPP believes that a
strong island-wide showing would improve party chances in
2010 mayoral elections in Taiwan's largest cities and the
2012 presidential race.

--------------
STILL DRIVEN BY LOCAL ISSUES
--------------


6. (C) Ironically, many national heavyweights were
campaigning in a local election that most observers believed
would be won or lost on local issues. One election issue
revolves around Lu,s decision to cancel Yilan,s annual
Children's Festival. Started 12 years earlier, this event
was popular with local residents and drew tourist dollars.
Lu's campaign explained that he canceled the Festival because
in recent years competition from other events reduced the
number of attendees and mismanagement by the previous DPP
magistrate resulted in financial losses. However, Yilan
residents still were upset at the termination of a festival
that evoked fond childhood memories. Lin, the challenger,
had trials of his own, with the leak of a 2001 DPP campaign
poster attacking his character and credibility for leaving
the party that year to run as an independent for Lotung
Township director. (Note: He rejoined the DPP after he was
reelected in 2005. End note.) Both DPP and KMT contacts
stated that national issues only drew limited interest from
swing voters, who according to polls comprised nearly
one-third of the electorate several weeks before the
election. The DPP County Chairman believed there was some
public concern over the proposed Economic Cooperation
Framework Agreement with China due to uncertainty over its
content. Local sources said attempts by the DPP to fan voter
outrage over the Ma administration's decision to allow
expanded failed to gain traction.

--------------
VOTE BUYING FACTOR NOT CLEAR
--------------


7. (C) Of four pre-elections polls in Yilan, two put Lu
ahead and two put Lin ahead. In such a hard-fought race,
vote buying could be a deciding factor, leading both sides to
be especially vigilant. The DPP organized "shock troops" to
tail KMT candidates and film suspected vote-buying
activities. Both DPP and KMT local officials acknowledged
that vote buying was still a major problem in county
councilor elections but added that it was much more difficult
to influence larger magistrate elections with such
activities. More than 100 cases of vote buying in other
local races in Yilan had already been referred to the local
prosecutor's office for investigation, but as of December 2
no cases had yet been brought against either campaign.
STANTON