PRESIDENT MA, OPPOSITION PARTY SEEK POLITICAL

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 TAIPEI 001412

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 12/02/2019
TAGS: TW PGOV
SUBJECT: PRESIDENT MA, OPPOSITION PARTY SEEK POLITICAL
REDEMPTION IN LOCAL ELECTIONS


1. (C) Summary: Both President Ma Ying-jeou and the
opposition Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) view the
December 5 elections for county magistrates, city mayors and
local council members as crucial to resurrecting their
battered political fortunes. Ma has been racing around the
island to campaign for candidates from his ruling Kuomintang
(KMT) party, and a strong showing could boost his anemic
public approval ratings. The election also is the first test
of Ma's effort to promote novice candidates untainted by the
corruption that is endemic among the party's entrenched
factions. Meanwhile, the DPP is hoping for a comeback after
embarrassing losses in legislative and presidential
elections. Both parties want to build momentum for more
important elections in Taiwan's major urban centers next
year. End Summary.

The General Lowdown on Local Elections
--------------


2. (C) From September to November, Poloffs made reporting
trips to many of the 17 counties and cities that will choose
magistrates and mayors on December 5. The KMT is defending
13 local offices up for grabs and the DPP three; another is
held by a KMT-aligned minor party. Some jurisdictions have
unique political landscapes that help determine how the local
electorate votes. For example, local factions dominate the
scene in rural Yunlin County, while ethnicity drives how one
votes in Hualien County. Hakka, Mainlander and Aborigine
voters tend to be pro-Blue (KMT),while their Minnan
(Taiwanese whose ancesteral home is Fujian Province)
counterparts unswervely support the DPP. Political observers
told us that Taiwan voters were generally consistent in their
party preferences over the years, casting their ballots for
either the KMT or DPP candidate. We also discovered,
however, that many voters remained undecided and this created
a good deal of uncertainty in Yilan County, one of the key
races (see septel).


3. (C) Our contacts noted that voters typically were more
concerned with local issues and candidates' track records in
serving the community than with island-wide issues.
Candidates who were longtime residents in the constituencies
in which they were running typically fared better than
outsiders; our contacts insisted that familiarity bred
political support. As a result, while candidates employ
legions of election trucks emblazened with their photos to
rumble through neighborhoods and blast campaign slogans, they
also spend considerable time visiting produce markets,
tromping door-to-door and trekking to isolated villages to
grab every voter hand in sight.


4. (C) Another important factor in local elections is vote
buying, which is particularly prevalent in rural areas such
as Yunlin County. The KMT Chiayi County Chairman
acknowledged to Poloffs that candidates had to buy votes to
get supporters to the polls. (Note: The going price for a
vote was said to range from roughly $17 to $64 and may be for
a single candidate or a slate of candidates. Handlers
usually distributed the money, but they had difficulty in
confirming whether recipients actually voted as promised. End
note.) Central and local law-enforcement officials have
promised to crack down on the practice, and both major
parties have exchanged accusations of dirty politics. As in
past elections, it is difficult to gauge the scope of the
practice or its affect on the outcome of this election.

A Test for Ma and His "Clean" Strategy
--------------


5. (C) As part of his effort to combat rampant vote-buying,
President Ma has been pushing to clean up the notoriously
corrupt KMT and has redoubled his efforts since returning to
the party chairmanship in October. (Note: Three KMT
legislators lost their seats this year due to vote-buying
charges. End note.) For example, the KMT excluded members
with criminal records from participating in primaries for the
elections, including one lawmaker who went on to run as an
independent candidate in Hualien. In a few constitencies --
but by no means all -- the party favored electoral novices;
in others, such as Hsinchu County, veteran politicians with a
flair for background dealings still got the nod. Among the
new KMT faces were a college professor in Yunlin County, a
former director of the county agriculture bureau in Hualien
County, and a former director of the city labor bureau in
Hsinchu City. In a meeting with Poloffs, the unassuming KMT
Hualien candidate, Tu Li-hua, largely kept silent as she
deferred to her husband who was helping her run her campaign.


6. (C) Promoting untainted but untested politicians
represents some risk to Ma as all face tough or nearly
hopeless battles. Moreover, in seven races, long-time KMT
politicians resigned from the party to run as independents
because they were shut out in or disgruntled with the

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nomination process. According to our contacts, the "rebel"
candidates had good chances of winning in Hualien and Hsinchu
counties, where they both had the support of the outgoing KMT
magistrates. The KMT Hualien County Chairman lamented to
Poloffs that in the past the party nominee would always win
the magistracy. Ma's efforts to clean up the KMT could suffer
a sharp setback should the novice candidates fare poorly and
tainted rebel candidates, such as the one in Hualien, do
well.


7. (C) That helps explain why Ma has maintained an exhaustive
campaign schedule in the run-up to the election, racing to
multiple consituencies each day, particularly those in which
novices are running or in which party candidates are facing
strong challenges from KMT rebels or the DPP. Initially
there was speculation about just how active Ma would be as a
campaigner given public misgivings about his handling of
typhoon relief in August, his negotiation of a controversial
beef protocol with the United States, and his rapid
rapprochement with China. Yet he has appeared in rally after
rally with enthusiastic KMT candidates, often appearing under
huge billboard-sized photographs of him and the local party
standard-bearer in smiling victory poses. As a result, even
if the races ultimately turn on local issues, many will see
the elections as a mid-term assessment of Ma's performance as
President.

DPP Hopes to Gain At Least One Seat
--------------


8. (C) That suits the DPP just fine as it seeks to retain the
three seats it has -- the magistracies of Pingtung, Yunlin
and Chiayi counties -- and pick up at least one other, most
likely the traditional party stronghold of Yilan County. As
DPP Party Chairwoman Tsai Ing-wen endures a campaign schedule
as frenetic as Ma's, she is urging voters to cast their votes
to register displeasure with the President. While criticism
of Ma administration policies may resonate with some voters,
our contacts believed most would base their decision on the
individual candidates and local issues. In Yilan, for
example, the incumbent KMT magistrate is having a tough time
because of his own mediocre track record and public anger
over his cancellation of several popular local events
established by his DPP predecessors.


9. (C) With Yilan up for grabs and the KMT in jeopardy of
losing two magistracies to rebel candidates, both parties are
pulling out all the stops. Bigwigs from both parties --
from Premier Wu Den-yih for the KMT to former Vice President
Annette Lu and former premiers Su Tseng-chang and Frank Hsieh
of the DPP have all hit the hustings. In one instance, a
near riot almost broke out when Ma and Hsieh crossed paths in
Hsinchu County. Ma and the others were expected to conduct
non-stop campaigning through election eve.

Comment: Election Implications
--------------


10. (C) The outcome of the December 5 elections will have
important implications for both parties and their chairs; not
suprisingly the spin-meisters already are out in force. DPP
International Affairs Deputy Director Hsieh Huai-hui and
other contacts have told Poloffs that retaining three seats
would be a satisfactory outcome for the opposition party but
would indicate that Tsai needed to do more to prepare for
next year's elections. (Note: In 2010, voters will select the
heads of Taiwan's five special municipalities: Taipei, New
Taipei, Tainan, Kaohsiung and Taichung. End note.) The
opposition party would consider picking up a fourth seat a
victory that would help restore confidence among supporters
and build momentum for next year. However, should the DPP
come away with less than three seats, our contacts believed
Tsai would have to step down as chair in line with party
tradition.


11. (C) Meanwhile, the elections have exposed internal
discord within the KMT that would prove particularly
problematic for Ma if the party does poorly. A weak KMT
showing could signal difficulty for Ma in maintaining party
discipline, particularly among lawmakers already irritated at
the administration's lack of communication with them. A poor
showing might also shatter the sense that Ma will inevitably
be re-nominated as the KMT's presidential candidate in 2012
and as one of our contacts suggested would make China
question Ma's strength and abilities. Our contact pointed
out that China would be nervous if the DPP were to gain a
seat and build momentum going into next year's more important
elections.