Identifier
Created
Classification
Origin
09TAIPEI1286
2009-11-03 00:29:00
CONFIDENTIAL
American Institute Taiwan, Taipei
Cable title:
CROSS-STRAIT SCHOLAR PREDICTS LOOSENING TIES
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C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 TAIPEI 001286
SIPDIS
E.O. 12958: DECL: 11/03/2019
TAGS: ECON PREL TW PGOV
SUBJECT: CROSS-STRAIT SCHOLAR PREDICTS LOOSENING TIES
BETWEEN UNITED STATES AND TAIWAN
Classified By: Director Stanton. Reasons 1.4 (b/d)
C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 TAIPEI 001286
SIPDIS
E.O. 12958: DECL: 11/03/2019
TAGS: ECON PREL TW PGOV
SUBJECT: CROSS-STRAIT SCHOLAR PREDICTS LOOSENING TIES
BETWEEN UNITED STATES AND TAIWAN
Classified By: Director Stanton. Reasons 1.4 (b/d)
1. (C) Summary. One prominent cross-Strait scholar told AIT
he foresaw that shifts in &three pillars8 of U.S.-Taiwan
relations -- educational, economic and political/military
ties -- would likely loosen our bilateral bonds. Arthur
Ding, Research Fellow at the Institute of International
Affairs at National Chengchi University, also said he feared
little could be done to prevent a long-term trend of weakened
bilateral ties. End Summary.
Educational, Cultural and Social Ties
--------------
2. (C) In an October 27 meeting with PolOff to discuss
cross-Strait relations, Arthur Ding, an expert on Chinese
security issues and cross-Strait confidence building
measures, said he noted shifts in what he described as the
&three pillars8 of U.S.-Taiwan relations and predicted
bilateral ties would erode as a result. Ding, who also is
deputy executive director of a new strategic studies center
funded by the MacArthur Foundation, said the first pillar of
concern was educational exchange. He highlighted the lower
number of Taiwan students seeking advanced degrees in the
United States and expressed concern it would loosen cultural
and social ties with the United States. He noted that in the
past two generations almost all Taiwan students who studied
abroad went to the United States, where many stayed on to
work. Those who returned accounted for much of Taiwan's
current leadership, including President Ma Ying-jeou.
However, only about half of Taiwan students abroad were now
in the United States, Ding said. Many others were going to
Europe, where governments extended tuition-free education to
foreign students.
Economic Ties
--------------
3. (C) Ding expected China and Europe would grow as markets
for Taiwan's export-oriented businesses, a development he
said should erode U.S.-Taiwan economic ties. In particular,
he said China's economic influence on Taiwan should increase
at the expense of the United States as cross-Strait
agreements on finance and trade were negotiated and as
Beijing opened its domestic market. The reorientation of
Taiwan businessmen toward China was inevitable given the
rapid pace of China's economic growth and the geographic
proximity of Taiwan to its potentially massive market,
according to Ding.
Political and Security Ties
--------------
4. (C) While acknowledging no current evidence of changes in
the U.S.-Taiwan political and security relationship, Ding
cautioned that with the loosening of cultural and social
bonds and the probable loosening of economic ties, it might
be inevitable that political and security relations also
would weaken. The academic argued that the perception of
some Taiwan people of an unequal relationship with the United
States would further hasten the rift.
Comment: "Pillars" Not as Vulnerable as Academic Suggests
-------------- --------------
5. (C) Comment: AIT does not believe the prospects for
U.S.-Taiwan relations are nearly as gloomy as Ding suggests.
On the contrary, President Ma and other Taiwan officials have
repeatedly told us that warming cross-Strait relations make
stronger ties with the United States imperative to ensure
Taiwan does not become overly dependent on China. Taiwan
leaders are keenly interested in a number of measures to
enhance relations with the United States, including a Trade
and Investment Framework Agreement (TIFA) and an extradition
pact. Furthermore, the existing "pillars" are not as wobbly
as Ding suggests. Just as one example, the number of Taiwan
students going to the United States has held fairly steady in
TAIPEI 00001286 002 OF 002
recent years and is up from its nadir after 9/11.
STANTON
SIPDIS
E.O. 12958: DECL: 11/03/2019
TAGS: ECON PREL TW PGOV
SUBJECT: CROSS-STRAIT SCHOLAR PREDICTS LOOSENING TIES
BETWEEN UNITED STATES AND TAIWAN
Classified By: Director Stanton. Reasons 1.4 (b/d)
1. (C) Summary. One prominent cross-Strait scholar told AIT
he foresaw that shifts in &three pillars8 of U.S.-Taiwan
relations -- educational, economic and political/military
ties -- would likely loosen our bilateral bonds. Arthur
Ding, Research Fellow at the Institute of International
Affairs at National Chengchi University, also said he feared
little could be done to prevent a long-term trend of weakened
bilateral ties. End Summary.
Educational, Cultural and Social Ties
--------------
2. (C) In an October 27 meeting with PolOff to discuss
cross-Strait relations, Arthur Ding, an expert on Chinese
security issues and cross-Strait confidence building
measures, said he noted shifts in what he described as the
&three pillars8 of U.S.-Taiwan relations and predicted
bilateral ties would erode as a result. Ding, who also is
deputy executive director of a new strategic studies center
funded by the MacArthur Foundation, said the first pillar of
concern was educational exchange. He highlighted the lower
number of Taiwan students seeking advanced degrees in the
United States and expressed concern it would loosen cultural
and social ties with the United States. He noted that in the
past two generations almost all Taiwan students who studied
abroad went to the United States, where many stayed on to
work. Those who returned accounted for much of Taiwan's
current leadership, including President Ma Ying-jeou.
However, only about half of Taiwan students abroad were now
in the United States, Ding said. Many others were going to
Europe, where governments extended tuition-free education to
foreign students.
Economic Ties
--------------
3. (C) Ding expected China and Europe would grow as markets
for Taiwan's export-oriented businesses, a development he
said should erode U.S.-Taiwan economic ties. In particular,
he said China's economic influence on Taiwan should increase
at the expense of the United States as cross-Strait
agreements on finance and trade were negotiated and as
Beijing opened its domestic market. The reorientation of
Taiwan businessmen toward China was inevitable given the
rapid pace of China's economic growth and the geographic
proximity of Taiwan to its potentially massive market,
according to Ding.
Political and Security Ties
--------------
4. (C) While acknowledging no current evidence of changes in
the U.S.-Taiwan political and security relationship, Ding
cautioned that with the loosening of cultural and social
bonds and the probable loosening of economic ties, it might
be inevitable that political and security relations also
would weaken. The academic argued that the perception of
some Taiwan people of an unequal relationship with the United
States would further hasten the rift.
Comment: "Pillars" Not as Vulnerable as Academic Suggests
-------------- --------------
5. (C) Comment: AIT does not believe the prospects for
U.S.-Taiwan relations are nearly as gloomy as Ding suggests.
On the contrary, President Ma and other Taiwan officials have
repeatedly told us that warming cross-Strait relations make
stronger ties with the United States imperative to ensure
Taiwan does not become overly dependent on China. Taiwan
leaders are keenly interested in a number of measures to
enhance relations with the United States, including a Trade
and Investment Framework Agreement (TIFA) and an extradition
pact. Furthermore, the existing "pillars" are not as wobbly
as Ding suggests. Just as one example, the number of Taiwan
students going to the United States has held fairly steady in
TAIPEI 00001286 002 OF 002
recent years and is up from its nadir after 9/11.
STANTON