MA ADMINISTRATION "VERY GLOOMY" OVER U.S.-TAIWAN

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 TAIPEI 001274

SIPDIS

STATE PASS USTR FOR STRATFORD, ALTBACH, AND O'CONNOR
PASS TO USDA FOR FAS/OSTA BLUM, BEAN AND DAWSON; FAS/OCRA
RADLER, POOL; AND FAS/OFSO SALLYARDS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 10/30/2019
TAGS: ECON ETRD PGOV PREL EAGR TW
SUBJECT: MA ADMINISTRATION "VERY GLOOMY" OVER U.S.-TAIWAN
BEEF AGREEMENT

REF: TAIPEI 1270

TAIPEI 00001274 001.2 OF 002


Classified By: Director Stanton. Reasons: 1.4 b/d


1. (C) Summary: National Security Council Secretary General
Su Chi told the Director on October 30 that widespread public
criticism of the recently signed U.S.-Taiwan protocol left
him feeling very pessimistic about its prospects. He cited
opposition from lawmakers who could derail the pact as
particularly worrisome. Su said President Ma Ying-jeou
planned to meet with top advisers later in the day to
reassess the situation. In the meantime, the administration
would continue to strenuously lobby ruling Kuomintang
lawmakers who opposed the agreement. In response to the
Director's question on what the United States could do to
help, Su urged us to keep a low profile for now. End summary.

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GLOOMY ASSESSMENT
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2. (C) In an October 30 meeting immediately following the
Vermont Governor's call on President Ma, which the Director
also attended, National Security Council Secretary General Su
Chi told the Director an "irrational" public response to the
U.S.-Taiwan beef accord left him feeling "very, very gloomy"
over its future. He did not, however, raise the prospect of
delaying implementation beyond the agreed upon date of
November 2. Su said President Ma was very worried as well and
would call a meeting later in the day with key advisers to
plot his administration's next moves. He added that the
controversy was being fanned by the media, which he said gave
voice to irrational fears over the safety of U.S. beef
products, especially offal and ground beef, that would return
to the Taiwan market under the accord. His deputy, Ho
Szu-Yin, cited media reports of a university student who had
eaten a cow-patty burger in protest as a sign of how
irrational the debate had become. Su expressed frustration
that media were not running op-ed pieces submitted by
government experts rebutting claims U.S. beef products were
unsafe. Shaking his head, he said, "Sad, very sad." Although
there had been no mass protests against the accord as of
October 30, Ho said public polling showed that Ma's overall
popularity had taken a major hit over the beef controversy,
tumbling from 47 percent to 33 percent in one poll.

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LEGISLATIVE YUAN ASSESSMENT
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3. (C) Su and Ho expressed particular concern over opposition
to the pact within the Legislative Yuan, and especially among
KMT lawmakers. Of the 109 legislators, Ho said all 28 from
the opposition Democratic Progressive Party and up to 25 from
the ruling Kuomintang were strongly against the pact.
Another five non-affiliated lawmakers represented rural
districts where opposition to the accord was believed to be
strong. Su said two proposals were circulating among
lawmakers, one a resolution opposing the beef pact and
another an amendment to Taiwan's law governing import
regulations that would prohibit the import of beef offal and
ground beef.


4. (C) Ho told the Director in a separate meeting he saw no
way of getting around the Legislative Yuan. He said the
Legislative yuan had 30 days to accept, reject or propose
changes to international agreements. He said the President's
low poll numbers made issuing an executive order that would
bypass the legislature an unattractive option. In any event,
the Legislative Yuan would still have the power to change the
law in a way that would undermine any executive order. (Note:
AIT is checking the basis for Ho's comment on Legislative
Yuan involvement. The Taiwan side during many months of

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negotiations indicated the protocol would not require
legislative approval. End note.)

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OPTIONS FOR SALVAGING THE PACT
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5. (C) In an effort to convince recalcitrant Kuomintang
lawmakers to support the pact, the administration would have
"another session of knocking heads," said Su. He also raised
the possibility of organizing a fact-finding group of
lawmakers from the Legislative Yuan's public health and
foreign affairs committees to visit the United States to view
slaughterhouses and inspection procedures. He said members
from the Control Yuan, the private Consumer Protection
Association, and highly regarded veterinarians also could
participate. In response to a query from the Director about
what the United States could do to help, Su urged us to lay
low and "stay out of the picture" while the Ma administration
reviewed its options.

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COMMENT: WILL MA SHOW SPINE?
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6. (C) The Director told Su he admired his political courage
in publicly defending the beef protocol, which at times has
led to vitriolic personal criticism. Su assured the Director
the administration did not blame the U.S. Government for the
controversy; he instead pinned the fault on government
opponents who were fanning the flames with misleading and
ignorant arguments over beef safety. Su promised to keep in
close touch with the Director as the administration continued
to assess the situation.
STANTON