KAOHSIUNG MAYOR IN THE LIMELIGHT AS SHE RATTLES

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 TAIPEI 001261

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 10/22/2019
TAGS: PGOV PREL KDEM CH TW
SUBJECT: KAOHSIUNG MAYOR IN THE LIMELIGHT AS SHE RATTLES
CHINA'S CAGE

Classified By: Political Section Chief Rank. Reasons: 1.4 (b/d)


1. (C) Summary: Kaohsiung Mayor Chen Chu has suddenly
emerged as a star of the beleaguered opposition Democratic
Progressive Party (DPP). She won widespread kudos in July for
her city's successful hosting of the World Games, a rare
international event for diplomatically isolated Taiwan. She
subsequently was the talk of Taiwan for defying China by
inviting the Dalai Lama to visit and by refusing to cancel
the screening of a documentary on Uighur activist Rebiya
Kadeer. While Beijing hurled vitriol at Chen and sought to
punish her by restricting Chinese travel to Kaohsiung, she
has remained immensely popular at home. Now there is talk she
could one day be a DPP presidential candidate. Although her
recent actions irked Beijing, she appears more willing to
deal with China than many others within the opposition. End
summary.

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RIDING THE WORLD GAMES WAVE ...
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2. (SBU) After spending decades as a human-rights activist --
including six years in jail during martial law -- and holding
a number of positions in local and central government, Chen
narrowly won the Kaohsiung mayoral election in late 2006.
Little went well for her in her first year as mayor -- her
polling numbers were low as she fought lengthy legal
challenges to her disputed victory and suffered a minor
stroke. She regained her footing by throwing her energy into
hosting the World Games -- a poor cousin to the Olympics that
includes events such as artistic roller skating -- and even
traveled to Beijing and Shanghai to promote the event. Her
government's approval rating reached a sky-high 80 percent on
the eve of the Games, which went off without a major hitch in
July 2009 and greatly burnished her reputation.

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... AND STAYING POPULAR AT CHINA'S EXPENSE
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3. (C) Hardly had the glow of success dimmed when Chen was
making headlines again for inviting the Dalai Lama to visit
Taiwan in August to console victims of Typhoon Morakot.
According to Chen's close adviser, Liu Shyh-fan, the offer
was made hastily at the suggestion of the Mayor's friends.
(Note: Even central DPP leaders were taken by surprise but
acknowledged Chen could essentially do what she wanted given
her high popularity and position as the highest-ranking DPP
elected official. End Note.) Many analysts saw the invitation
as a political move to embarrass President Ma Ying-jeou, who
already was facing intense criticism over typhoon relief
efforts. Liu acknowledged the mayor assumed Ma would choose
to reject the visit so as not to imperil his opening to
China, even though such a decision could send his anemic
approval ratings even lower. When the President approved,
Beijing's anger was directed primarily at Chen and the DPP.
Chen also bore the brunt of China's wrath a few weeks later
over the scheduled screening at a city-funded film festival
of a documentary on Uighur activist Rebiya Kadeer. Chen's
decision to move up the screening by several weeks did not
mollify Beijing, and in the end she succombed to demands from
hardline DPP members to reinstate the screening at the
festival as well.


4. (C) Beijing's decision to hit back at Chen by restricting
China tourist visits to Kaohsiung caused grumbling among the
city's hoteliers and travel industry (septel) but did not
damage her popularity. Liao Dachi, director and professor at
the Institute of Political Science at the National Sun
Yat-sen University, said polls continued to show about 70
percent of respondents were satisfied with Chen's
performance. "I can't say she's the most powerful, but she's
the most popular person in the DPP," Liao said. She said the
mayor's invitation to the Dalai Lama in particularly
consolidated her base within the opposition party that is
wary of China's political motives on Taiwan; even the KMT
city chairman said it wasn't a bad move.

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LOOKING TOWARD NEXT YEAR'S ELECTIONS AND BEYOND
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5. (C) Chen's popularity puts her in a strong position for
next year's mayoral election for an expanded Kaohsiung City
that will incorporate Kaohsiung County for a total population
of nearly 3 million, slightly larger than Taipei City but
about a million less than Taipei County. Many analysts expect
her toughest challenge will come from within the party. One

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possible DPP opponent is Kaohsiung County Magistrate Yang
Chiu-Hsing, who retains strong support in rural areas;
another is former acting Kaohsiung Mayor Chen Chi-mai, whose
backers include the DPP city chairman. Chen Chi-mai told
PolOffs he had yet to decide whether to run for mayor or for
a seat in the Legislative Yuan. Meanwhile, most of the people
widely seen as possibly running under the Kuomintang banner
do not have the name recognition of Chen or the other likely
DPP candidates. Professor Liao, however, believes one KMT
heavyweight, Legislative Yuan President Wang Jin-Pyng, might
enter the race because of party rules that limit to two terms
the tenure of at-large lawmakers like himself.


6. (C) Liao and others believe Mayor Chen over the longer
term has her eye on a presidential campaign, if not in 2012
when President Ma Ying-jeou is expected to seek reelection
than in 2016. Liu, the mayor's adviser, said she didn't think
Chen would run for president in 2012. When asked about 2016,
she said Chen, who is now 59, would be too old. When,
pressed, however, Liu said 2016 was "too far (off) to discuss
this issue;" in any event, Liu noted the Mayor is staying fit
by enjoying "Dance, Dance Revolution" aerobic workouts. For
now, the front-runner to be party standard-bearer is Su
Tseng-Chang, the DPP vice presidential candidate in 2008 and
a former premier. Among those believed interested in running
for president are three other party heavyweights -- two
former premiers and a former vice president -- none of whom
now hold elective office.


7. (C) Even Adviser Liu acknowledged Chen lacked many
accomplishments beyond hosting the World Games and irritating
China on which she could campaign. This is particularly true
in economic development, a critical issue for a city with a
relatively high unemployment rate and a harbor that is
falling in its global rankings. Possible challenger Chen
Chi-mai faulted the Mayor for not aggressively going after
investors with tax incentives and other measures to improve
the business climate. When asked to name an accomplishment on
which the Mayor could campaign for reelection, Professor Liao
paused and then noted the expansion of the city's bicycle
paths. In terms of larger projects, however, "I don't see
very good development." (Note: Liao had a chance to observe
Chen close up when she was her student during a semester-long
course for executives several years ago. She described Chen
as polite, humble and never absent from class, admirable
qualities that make for a good student yet are not always
found in politicians. Less impressive, said the professor,
was the quality of Chen's work, which led Liao to tell
PolOff: "She's not that smart." End note.)


8. (C) Another criticism often heard is that Chen lacks
international experience. When asked if the Mayor would make
a good president, Professor Liao said: "No. Her international
vission is not good enough." Chen Chi-mai faulted the Mayor
for having a muddled approach toward China, at first making a
friendly official trip to promote the World Games but then
later angering Beijing with her invitation to the Dalai Lama.
"The Chinese people aren't stupid," he said. "It's hard for
China to accept this inconsistent behavior." Liu, the
adviser, denied that the Mayor played a Dalai Lama card to
score political points domestically; instead, she said
inviting the Tibetan leader was consistent with the DPP's
support of democracy and freedom of speech.

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COMMENT: HOW FAR CAN CHEN GO?
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9. (C) Despite her present popularity, there are reasons to
question just how far this could take Mayor Chen: She's not
quite a shoo-in for reelection as Mayor and much will change
between now and the presidential elections. The one
description of Chen that rings true is Liu's insistence that
the Mayor is a "very pragmatic person." This appears to aptly
describe her attitude toward China: happy to make a friendly
trip to the mainland when it benefits her and just as happy
to poke the Beijing leadership in the eye when it suits her
purposes. Her possible emergence as DPP standard-bearer in
years to come therefore may not be as traumatic for
cross-Strait relations as all the nasty things Beijing has
said about her in recent months would suggest.
STANTON