KMT ENTERING LOCAL ELECTION CAMPAIGN IN WEAKENED

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 TAIPEI 001219

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 10/13/2019
TAGS: PGOV KDEM TW
SUBJECT: KMT ENTERING LOCAL ELECTION CAMPAIGN IN WEAKENED
POSITION

Classified By: Political Section Chief Dave Rank. Reasons: 1.4 (b/d)


1. (C) Summary: The ruling Kuomintang (KMT) on October 11
expelled seven mavericks who launched challenges to official
party candidates in December elections for 17 mayors and
county magistrates. The insurgents could foil the campaigns
of at least a few KMT candidates, thereby providing momentum
for the opposition Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) heading
into next year's local elections for Taiwan's main population
centers. President Ma Ying-jeou's opening to mainland China
has yet to emerge as a major campaign issue, and cross-Strait
policy probably won't be affected barring an unexpected KMT
debacle at the polls. End summary.

KMT FACES PESKY CHALLENGES FROM WITHIN PARTY
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2. (C) The KMT on October 11 expelled seven members who
defied its orders and launched challenges to party candidates
in December local elections. (Note: One other member was
expelled earlier, bringing to eight the number of rogue KMT
candidacies. End note.) The number would have been higher if
not for some last-minute arm-twisting by senior party
officials just before candidate registration ended October 9.
Party insiders attributed the unusually large number of
maverick candidates to President Ma's unwillingness or
inability to threaten painful reprisals or to offer juicy
inducements -- as his predecessors had -- to prevent
mavericks from running. KMT Lawmaker Hwang Yih-Jiau also
argued that grass-roots support was as important as party
backing in some campaigns, particularly since the KMT was not
as flush with money to back its candidates as it once was.


3. (C) Early handicapping by political pundits suggested the
DPP should hang on to its three magistrate seats in Yunlin,
Pingtung and Chiayi counties, and had a chance to capture
KMT-controlled Nantou and Hsinchu counties because of the
presence of multiple KMT candidates on the ballots. The KMT
incumbent in Yilan County also could face a tough reelection
battle because of his unpopularity stemming in part from
having cancelled several widely enjoyed public events. The
KMT-backed candidate in Hualien County also faces a strong
challenge from two popular party renegades, but no DPP
candidate is running in that race. Wu Szu-yao, a member of
the DPP's Central Executive Committee, cautioned that her
party should not be too optimistic about its chances of
taking advantage of the KMT splits. She believed her party
would probably retain its three maigstrate sets and perhaps
add another one or two.

WHAT IT MEANS FOR THE KMT, PRESIDENT MA, AND CHINA POLICY
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4. (C) Lawmaker Hwang said a pick-up of a few seats by the
DPP, as predicted by Wu, would not be "the end of the world"
for the KMT. Taiwan politics was not unlike a pendulum,
swinging back and forth between parties, Hwang argued. After
the KMT landslide wins in legislative and presidential
elections in 2008, the DPP could be expected to fare better
in this year's local elections. Still, a loss of several
magistrate seats would be a "warning" for the KMT and would
be a humbling experience for President Ma, who will resume
the party chairmanship on October 17.


5. (C) Kuo said city and county elections typically reflect a
mixture of local and central government issues, and this year
should be no different. The sluggish economy continues to be
of concern to many, and voters in southern counties ravaged
by Typhoon Morakot undoubtedly will factor in how local and
central authorities responded to the disaster. Although
rapprochement with China has been the signature policy of the
Ma administration, there is little sign it will play a
dominant role in the local election campaign. Some
commentators believe Ma might use a strong DPP showing to
urge China to help shore up his domestic political position
by offering more concessions in cross-Strait negotations.
However, nothing short of a victory well beyond what even DPP
stalwarts expect would likely change the current political
calculus in which Ma heads the pack going into the 2012
presidential election.

COMMENT: IT'S MOSTLY ABOUT MOMENTUM
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6. (C) If nothing else, a strong DPP showing in December
elections could provide the opposition party momentum going
into next year's local elections for Taipei, Kaohsiung and
Taiwan's other major population centers. Certainly, the DPP
believes its strong showing in a legislative by-election in

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September boosted its prospects in the year-end vote. End
note. President Ma's own political prestige will be much
more at stake in 2010, when KMT candidates will have his
clear imprimatur a year after he resumed the party
Chairmanship.
STANTON