VISA WAIVER FOR TAIWAN: THE U.S. NATIONAL INTEREST

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 TAIPEI 001196

SIPDIS
NOFORN

FROM AIT DIRECTOR STANTON FOR EAP A/S CAMPBELL AND CA A/S
JACOBS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 10/03/2019
TAGS: CVIS PREL TW
SUBJECT: VISA WAIVER FOR TAIWAN: THE U.S. NATIONAL INTEREST

Classified By: Director Bill Stanton for reasons 1.4(b/d)


1. (C) Summary: One of the most pro-United States places in
the world, Taiwan has a highly literate, technologically
advanced, and well-educated population, no links to
terrorism, a low rate of fraud related to U.S. visas and
immigration, and strong commercial, travel and educational
links to the United States. Countries such as the UK and
Japan have already recognized the value of visa-free entry
for Taiwan travelers. Canada is on the brink of doing so.
Encouraging a process designed to bring Taiwan into the U.S.
Visa Waiver Program (VWP) would advance fundamental U.S.
security, commercial, and political interests. AIT/Taipei
has established a working group to oversee AIT,s engagement
with Taiwan and the US interagency community on the VWP
issue. Post recommends that, if Taiwan makes progress in
clearly-defined areas, the U.S. should designate Taiwan as an
official candidate for VWP. End Summary


2. (C) Taiwan President Ma Ying-jeou has made securing entry
in to the U.S. Visa Waiver Program (VWP) a top priority for
his administration. Up to now, the U.S. response has been to
acknowledge that this is a reasonable aspiration and to press
Taiwan to improve its passport application procedures to
reduce vulnerabilities to fraud. Pursuing a more
forward-leaning process designed to bring Taiwan into the VWP
would, however, advance fundamental U.S. security,
commercial, and political interests, as outlined below.

Security
--------------


3. (C) A well-designed VWP admission process would resolve
concerns about the vulnerability of Taiwan travel documents
to abuse by (primarily PRC) mala fide travelers. Currently,
there is no personal appearance requirement for applicants
for Taiwan passports. Already, there have been cases of mala
fide PRC travelers using Taiwan passports to travel to the
United States. The increase in travel and other interactions
between the PRC and Taiwan that has accompanied improved
cross-Strait relations makes it likely that this problem will
continue. To meet requirements for admission to VWP, Taiwan
will need to adopt stricter mechanisms to reduce
vulnerability. As we seek to resolve these issues, we should
not lose sight of the fact that, from a security (including
border security) perspective, Taiwan is already an attractive
partner. Few if any Taiwan people have been linked to
transnational terrorism, and there is no history of
terrorists using Taiwan travel documents or transiting Taiwan
ports or airports. Once a major source of U.S. immigrants,
in recent years Taiwan, as a result of its remarkable
economic and political progress, has largely reversed this
flow and former migrants are returning home.

Prosperity
--------------


4. (C) Admitting Taiwan to the VWP will create thousands of
U.S. jobs. Japan, Canada, the UK, and some EU countries have
already granted Taiwan visa waiver status or are in the
process of doing so. Whereas travel by Taiwan citizens to
most destinations declined precipitously in FY-2009
(U.S.-bound travel dropped by 30% -- on top of an already
steady decline over the past number of years),travel to the
UK increased by over 30% since the UK visa exemption went
into effect in March. The local travel industry, British
officials, and Taiwan consular officials agree that the
linkage between visa waiver and traveler numbers is clear.
The causes underlying individual travel decisions and overall
travel trends are complex, and visa-free travel is but one of
many contributing factors. Nonetheless, evidence suggests
that visa-free travel certainly influences travel patterns.


5. (C) Anecdotal evidence indicates, moreover, that at least
part of the decline in travel to the United States in recent
years by Taiwan travelers is due to negative perceptions of
U.S. visa policy and to the cost of applying for U.S. visas,
as well as the availability of competitive, visa-waiver
destinations. The U.S. Commerce Department estimates that
Taiwan travelers accounted for approximately $1.6 billion in
U.S. travel and tourism exports last year. Thus, declining

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travel by Taiwan citizens to the United States represents
significant losses in U.S. business. If admitting Taiwan to
the VWP reversed even partially the decline in Taiwan travel
to the United States, it could translate into thousands of
U.S. jobs.


6. (C) Taiwan is our 11th-largest trading partner (based on
Q1 2009 data). The U.S. is also the largest foreign investor
on the island, with over U.S. $16 billion in cumulative
investment. Taiwan is also a significant and growing
investor in the U.S., with $3.9 billion in foreign direct
investment and U.S. $149.7 billion in portfolio investments.
Taiwan is also the sixth largest purchaser of U.S.
agricultural exports. Taiwan,s accession to the VWP would
develop and reinforce two-way trade and investment exchange
in one of our most important bilateral economic relationships.

Stability
--------------


7. (C) Integrating Taiwan into the VWP will reinforce
regional stability by fostering cross-Strait rapprochement.
President Ma's efforts to engage China have greatly reduced
the threat of cross-Strait conflict, one of the most
important U.S. goals in the region. Ma's policy is premised,
however, on strengthened U.S.-Taiwan ties to prevent Taiwan
from becoming overly dependent on the PRC. Ma has made clear
on numerous occasions that -- aside from approving the sale
of F-16 C/Ds, granting VWP status to Taiwan would be one of
the most effective ways we could show concrete support for
his efforts. Based on the Chinese non-reaction to the
decisions of both the UK and Japan to grant visa waiver
status for Taiwan, backlash from the PRC to a similar move by
the United States should not be a major concern.

Stewards of U.S. Influence
--------------


8. (C) Perhaps most fundamentally, we should consider
Taiwan's candidacy for VWP from the perspective of our role
as stewards of an enormous repository of U.S. soft power.
Few places in the world are as reflexively pro-American as
Taiwan, despite the unofficial nature of our relations. The
extent of U.S. influence here -- cultural, political,
economic, and commercial -- is remarkable. The tangible
benefits of this influence are clear. The United States
exports more to Taiwan than to India or Italy. As many
students fly from Taiwan across 12 time zones to study in
American colleges as make the drive to do so from Canada.
Taiwan is second only to Saudi Arabia as a FMS cash customer.
Indeed, in a place where the President, National Security
Advisor, and Vice Premier have advanced degrees from U.S.
universities and 21 of 44 Minister-level officials have
studied in the United States or have taken part in a
USG-sponsored exchange program, it would be easy to take our
present predominance as an immutable fact of life.


9. (C) It is not, however, and our influence will wane unless
we actively nurture our ties. The most significant threats
to U.S. predominance in Taiwan society are China's rising
economic importance and the relaxation of tensions between
Taiwan and China. One result of this rapprochement is that,
in the little more than one year since Taiwan and China
agreed to direct cross-Strait flights, there are now 270 such
flight each week. The United States cannot compete with
China in terms of proximity to Taiwan or linguistic affinity.
We should be concerned, however, that it is now easier and
cheaper for people here to obtain a travel document to visit
the PRC than to apply for a U.S. visa. We have the means to
address this concern, which would go a long way to solidify
the people-to-people exchanges that form the bedrock of our
informal ties with Taiwan.

Working Toward Taiwan's Entry into the VWP
--------------


10. (C) There is no doubt that Taiwan will continue to press
hard for inclusion in the Visa Waiver Program, particularly
if Canada joins the UK and Japan in granting visa waiver
treatment for Taiwan, as appears likely. American businesses
will also continue to press for Taiwan's inclusion in VWP.

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AIT has established a working group to develop a strategy and
oversee AIT,s engagement on the VWP issue. The working
group is chaired by the Deputy Director and coordinated by
the consular section chief and includes relevant offices and
agencies. We have identified a number of VWP-related issues
and programs that merit close engagement with Taiwan,
monitoring, and reporting. AIT is sending a copy of this VWP
Action Plan to EAP and CA. Until there is USG consensus on a
"way ahead," AIT will engage Taiwan on these individual
issues and programs on a case-by-case, issue-by-issue basis.
We will continue to stress the need to improve the passport
application process, but also indicate that we are interested
in engaging and working closely with Taiwan to strengthen
cooperation in a wide variety of areas that would advance our
mutual interests and that might help Taiwan to become a
viable candidate for VWP.


11. (C) Taiwan has pressed for clarification on what
threshold must be met before they can be considered an
official "candidate" for VWP. We have responded that the
U.S. no longer is identifying "roadmap" countries, but that
we will evaluate individual candidacies on a case-by-case
basis. We have encouraged Taiwan to press forward with
improving its passport application process as a necessary but
not sufficient step for a successful candidacy. We have also
reminded Taiwan that the current visa refusal rate does not
meet U.S. statutory requirements for Taiwan's inclusion in
VWP.

Recommendation
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12. (C) If Taiwan shows progress in key areas of concern,
however, particularly on legislation to require a personal
appearance for passport applications and on improved
mechanisms for reporting lost and stolen passports, it is in
our national interest to respond by designating Taiwan as an
official candidate for VWP.
STANTON