TAIWAN OPPOSITION SCORES DOUBLE VICTORY IN

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 TAIPEI 001170

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 09/28/2019
TAGS: PGOV PREL KDEM TW
SUBJECT: TAIWAN OPPOSITION SCORES DOUBLE VICTORY IN
BY-ELECTION, REFERENDUM

REF: A. TAIPEI 1145

B. TAIPEI 1161

Classified By: AIT Acting Deputy Director Dave Rank for reasons 1.4 (b/
d)


1. (C) Summary: Big wins by the opposition Democratic
Progressive Party (DPP) in a September 26 legislative
by-election and a separate referendum on a
(government-backed) plan to allow casino resorts on one of
Taiwan's offshore islands gave the DPP a much-needed morale
boost and will energize supporters ahead of the December 5
local elections. The ruling KMT, meanwhile, took the losses
as a warning and will likely step up efforts to discourage
multiple candidates from running against each other and
splitting the party vote in the December races. End summary.

One By-election Win, Many Gains for the DPP...
-------------- -


2. (C) DPP candidate Liu Chien-kuo claimed a seat in
Taiwan's Legislative Yuan (LY) by winning a landslide victory
in a September 26 by-election in rural Yunlin County. Liu
garnered 74,272 votes, against KMT candidate Chang Ken-hui's
29,278 and independent candidate Chang Hui-yuan's 22,747 to
earn the seat vacated by Chang Hui-yuan's son, Chang Sho-wen.
The younger Chang, a KMT party member like his father, was
forced to step down after a court found his father guilty of
vote-buying on his son's behalf. (Note: In the wake of his
Chang Sho-wen's legally-mandated removal, the KMT nominated
political novice Chang Ken-hui to reinforce the party's
adherence to clean campaigns. Unwilling to see his family
excluded from local politics which they have dominated over
the years, Chang Hui-yuan resigned from the KMT to run as an
independent. See ref a. End note.) Voter turnout was 45
percent, standard for Taiwan by-elections.


3. (U) The DPP was exultant over Liu's victory. DPP Chair
Tsai Ing-wen claimed the win demonstrated the public's
determination to end vote-buying practices. The election
outcome was also a no-confidence vote against President Ma
Ying-jeou's administration, Tsai maintained.


4. (C) Prior to the Yunlin victory, DPP contacts often
complained that the party lacked the numbers to do anything
in the LY. With Liu's victory, the DPP now has 28 of 113
seats in the LY and a much stronger chance of participating
meaningfully in Taiwan's legislative process. LY rules
require that at least one-quarter of legislators support a
motion to initiate a recall of the President or propose
constitutional amendments. Now only one vote shy of the 29
vote needed to do so, DPP legislators need convince just one
KMT, Taiwan Solidarity Union or independent legislator to
join them. Likewise, the DPP now needs just two votes to
attain the required 30 to submit draft legislation. The DPP
will have another shot at increasing its LY presence when a
yet-unscheduled by-election for Premier Wu Den-yih's
legislative seat representing Nantou County is held.


5. (SBU) The Yunlin win also serves as a morale boost for a
DPP still beleaguered by 2008 presidential and legislative
electoral setbacks and by former President Chen Shui-bian's
ongoing corruption trial (see ref b). In Yunlin, the victory
paves the way for County Magistrate and DPP member Su
Chih-fen's re-election in December. The KMT candidate, Chang
Li-shan (sister of by-election independent candidate Chang
Hui-yuan and aunt of the failed KMT candidate Chang Sho-wen)
pulled out of the race on September 28, citing her party's
poor performance in the by-election. The DPP's Yunlin win
also could reinvigorate and rally supporters throughout
Taiwan for December local elections. The DPP may have a shot
at taking more positions away from the KMT, particularly in
Hualien, Taitung, and Hsinchu, where KMT candidates may end
up facing off against fellow interested party members who are
ignoring the KMT's pleas that they pull out of the race and
are continuing their campaigns. (Note: The DPP currently
holds 3 of the 17 county magistrate positions up for grabs on
December 5. End note.)

...Warning for KMT
--------------


6. (C) For the KMT, the Yunlin defeat is prompting the party
to take stock. KMT Chairman Wu Poh-hsiung acknowledged the
defeat was a warning but reaffirmed the party's efforts to
reform and uphold clean politics. The party would continue

TAIPEI 00001170 002 OF 002


to put forward candidates with clean images, such as
political novice Chang Ken-hui, maintained Wu. Taipei Mayor
Hau Lung-bin claimed the result reflected voter
dissatisfaction with the KMT government's performance.
Premier Wu Den-yih and others blamed the loss on a party
split and called for greater party unity ahead of the
December elections. Prior to the election, KMT officials in
Yunlin expressed concern to PolOffs about the possibility of
a split KMT vote. However, the results indicated that Liu
would have won fair and square even if the Blue vote had been
united behind just one candidate: Liu earned 74,272 votes,
whereas the KMT and independent candidates' votes combined
only totaled 52,025.

Defeat of KMT-backed Plan In Referendum Is Icing on DPP Cake
-------------- --------------


7. (U) A lesser blow to the ruling party was the September
26 rejection by referendum of a LY-approved (and KMT-backed)
plan to allow casino resorts on Penghu island (see septel).
Almost 57 percent of the Penghu residents who participated
voted against the plan in a referendum among Penghu
registered voters. Although voter turnout was only 45
percent, the result is binding. While some tourism operators
blamed the KMT government for not doing enough to promote the
casino idea, others, including Penghu County Magistrate Wang
Chien-fa (KMT) endorsed the decision and pledged to explore
other ways to develop island tourism. DPP Chair Tsai and
others who were against the plan, including Taiwan's Green
Party (environment-friendly) and anti-gambling groups, lauded
the result.

Comment
--------------


8. (C) The by-election and referendum outcomes are a major
morale boost for the DPP, whose Chair has told AIT that the
key to the party's political comeback is making steady gains
in local and national elections. The party hopes a good
showing in the December elections will build momentum for
2010, when five of Taiwan's largest cities and counties
(Taipei, Taipei County, Kaohsiung, Tainan, and Taichung)
elect their leaders. These elections will in turn, be a
springboard for legislative and presidential elections in

2012. The challenge for the DPP now is to remain focused on
the December elections and stave off other pressures,
including ardent Chen supporters who maintain the party needs
to hold street protests in support of the former President.
STANTON