EAST JAVA MUDFLOW UPDATE: HOMES DISAPPEAR IN 10 SECONDS

UNCLAS SURABAYA 000070

SENSITIVE
SIPDIS

DEPT FOR EAP, EAP/MTS, INR/EAP, AND EB/ESC/IEC
DOE FOR CUTLER/PI-32 AND NAKANO/P-42
COMMERCE FOR USDOC 4430

E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: ECON EPET EINV SENV ELAB ENRG PGOV ASEC ID
SUBJECT: EAST JAVA MUDFLOW UPDATE: HOMES DISAPPEAR IN 10 SECONDS

REF: Surabaya 66 and previous

This message is sensitive but unclassified. Please protect
accordingly.


1. (SBU) Summary: Several houses west of the epicenter of the
Sidoarjo mudflow collapsed into a sinkhole on July 14.
Approximately 200 houses were damaged, 40 houses heavily. The
local Government is assisting with evacuation and compensation,
but some residents refuse to leave. Severe and sudden
subsidence on this scale is unprecedented outside the
containment area. BPLS has reportedly warned the government
that the Porong road, the main link between Surabaya and the
rest of East Java, should no longer be used. There is no
warning system in place should the subsidence suddenly worsen or
flammable gas levels suddenly rise. BPLS officials cannot
predict if a major collapse beneath the Porong road and railway
will occur. End Summary

Spreading Impact
--------------


2. (SBU) A sinkhole, swallowing some 20 square meters of land
and threatening critical infrastructure, appeared in just
minutes on July 14 in West Siring, a village on the edge of the
Sidoarjo mudflow. Approximately 200 houses were damaged, 40
heavily, and 200 residents were forced out of their homes. BPLS
officials and the USG Geological Hazards Advisor have expressed
concern about the increased subsidence to the west and north of
the mudflow's epicenter and the increasing number of geysers
spraying water and methane into neighboring communities(reftel).


3. (SBU) The growing sinkhole is located approximately one
kilometer west of the mudflow's epicenter and roughly 300 meters
from critical rail and road links. As reported reftel, dikes
inside the containment area have been collapsing throughout
2008/2009 due to subsidence. The main dikes are located only
meters from the Porong road, which carries the bulk of East-West
road traffic, and Indonesia's active East-West national railway
link. The U.S. Geologic Survey and US Army Corps of Engineers
scientists visited the site in late October 2008 and reported
that this western dike was particularly vulnerable.

No Warning System
--------------


4. (SBU) BPLS Operations Engineer Handoko told us his agency
has advised the central government that the Porong road should
not be used. However, the new toll road designed to replace it
is at least a year from completion. Handoko added that there is
no system in place to warn local residents should gas levels
rise or a mass evacuation become necessary due to sudden dike
breach or subsidence. BPLS has local gas monitoring stations at
known gas flares and geysers in the community. GPS monitoring
continues around the perimeter of the main containment dikes to
assess localized subsidence. There is no way to communicate
this information to local residents for evacuation, however.

Residents Displaced
--------------


5. (SBU) West Siring residents had thus far escaped the mud,
which has inundated 11 villages since May 2003. Nearly 800
residents refuse to leave the evacuated neighborhood reportedly
because of concerns about compensation. A Porong District
official told displaced West Siring residents they can stay in
the vacant former district court building until they find new
homes. Displaced residents will receive government assistance
amounting to USD 250 for each family for rent; USD 50 for each
family's evacuation costs; and USD 30 per person as a six-month
living allowance. East Java Governor Soekarwo told the East Java
Parliament that the provincial government would provide houses
for mudflow victims living outside the impact area map.

MCCLELLAND