SOUTH SULAWESI: MORE YAWNING, LESS YELLING WHILE GOLKAR

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 SURABAYA 000036

SENSITIVE
SIPDIS

DEPT FOR EAP, EAP/MTS, EAP/MLS, EAP/RSP; NSC FOR E.PHU

E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: PGOV KDEM ID
SUBJECT: SOUTH SULAWESI: MORE YAWNING, LESS YELLING WHILE GOLKAR
SLIPS AGAIN IN ELECTIONS

REF: 07 SURABAYA 72

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1. (SBU) Summary: The 2009 Legislative elections in South
Sulawesi were marked by a dip in turnout and a generally orderly
process. This was in stark contrast to the angry crowds held
back by concertina wire following the hotly contested 2007 South
Sulawesi governor's election. Early results show that Vice
President Jusuf Kalla and his Golkar party, once dominant in
this, his home province, still lead President Yudhoyono's Partai
Demokrat (PD) but only by four percent -- a dramatic shift from

2004. This snapshot of elections in one province demonstrates
that the world's third largest democracy can successfully hold
elections in the face of considerable logistic challenges. End
Summary

Golkar's Dominance Ebbs
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2. (SBU) Over the last two years, Golkar's dominance in eastern
Indonesia has gradually weakened. Corruption scandals and
strategic missteps have further weakened Golkar in South
Sulawesi, Vice President Kalla's own back yard (reftel). In
2004, Golkar dominated the polls in South Sulawesi's election to
send legislators to parliament in Jakarta, garnering 41 percent
more votes than PD. Today, Golkar's advantage is just four
percent. (Golkar 22.35 percent, PD 18.89 percent). PD did even
better in the local Makassar parliamentary contest, besting
Golkar 22.6 to 19.2 percent respectively. The results of these
legislative elections hold the promise of bringing more
accountability to Indonesian politics with their focus on
individual candidates rather than party lists. However, PD's
success in South Sulawesi points to President Yudhoyono's
popularity, rather than clear support for his party's policies.

Enthusiasm Varies
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3. (SBU) Observations at polling stations in the provincial
capital Makassar and the regency of Gowa showed some disparity
in voter enthusiasm, but an overarching desire to conduct the
elections according to new, if poorly understood regulations.
One voter characterized the race as a "family and friends"
affair, since much of the campaigning was door to door and
people said that they were choosing someone accountable to them
instead of a party.


4. (SBU) While villages and close-knit city neighborhoods seemed
enthusiastic about the process, some wealthy voters were less
impressed. Makassar media reported a 30 percent increase in
domestic air ticket sales for travel over the four-day election
holiday, which included Good Friday, a national holiday. Local
advertisements for "voting vacation packages" suggested that
many well-heeled residents saw the day as a vacation from
voting. Turnout at polling stations in poorer areas was indeed
higher according to Elections Commission officials and our own
observations.

Counting Slowed by Sheer Size of Ballots
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5. (SBU) Despite a 20 to 30 percent drop in participation in
some parts of Makassar, voting and counting still moved slowly.
Fresh logistical challenges brought on by new ballots and new
rules meant that voters flowed through polling stations so
slowly that eligible voters were sometimes turned away. Voters
required a lot of instruction to use the newspaper-sized ballots
-- four per voter for national and local legislatures.
Contradictory instructions from the Elections commission about
how to mark the ballot just added to the confusion. A
requirement that tabulation be completed at polling stations
immediately after polls closed meant that poll workers toiled
late into the night. By 11 PM, poorly lit side streets in
Makassar were still full of poll workers on folding chairs
straining to confirm the marks on ballots before crowds of
witnesses.

Cash and Stoves Get Votes
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6. (SBU) The profusion of banners, signs and stickers for
individual candidates throughout Indonesia proved the focus
during this election had shifted from political parties toward

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individual politicians. While traditional Indonesian
get-out-the-vote efforts like giving voters free t-shirts or
simply buying votes persist, the impact is increasingly unclear.
Voters admit they readily take gifts from candidates and
parties they don't intend to support. Public policy did affect
voter behavior, according to some working-class voters in Gowa.
The central government's distribution of direct cash assistance
and gas stoves in the weeks leading up to the election was key
in swinging votes to President's Yudhoyono's party.
MCCLELLAND