EAST JAVA MUDFLOW UPDATE: SUBSIDENCE CONTINUES TO HAMPER

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 SURABAYA 000028

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TAGS: ECON EPET EINV SENV ELAB ENRG PGOV ASEC ID
SUBJECT: EAST JAVA MUDFLOW UPDATE: SUBSIDENCE CONTINUES TO HAMPER
MITIGATION EFFORTS

REF: A. 08 SURABAYA 132: USGS VISIT

B. SURABAYA 16: SUBSIDENCE AND FUNDING ISSUES STILL LIMIT OPTIONS

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1. (SBU) Summary: Subsidence north and west of the mudflow
epicenter continues to hamper efforts by the Sidoarjo Muflow
Mitigation Agency (BPLS) to pump mud into the Porong River.
BPLS officials met with scientists from the National Geological
Agency for a technical discussion but produced no new insights.
BPLS is looking for help with subsurface imaging. Natural gas
flares and large methane vents have reappeared in populated
areas west of the containment area raising concerns about
subsurface shifts. The concrete factory which had managed to
maintain operations while surrounded by mud has finally
succumbed to the inevitable. The new infrastructure corridor
will not include the railroad line. End Summary.

Experts Meet


2. (SBU) On March 18, officials from BPLS and the National
Geological Agency met in Sidoarjo to review the results of new
gravity studies, geothermal investigations, ground penetrating
radar subsurface images and interpretation, subsidence
measurements from differential GPS, water and gas chemistry from
the surrounding mud ponds, and preliminary hazard mapping.
According to the USAID-funded mud mitigation advisor who
attended the three hour meeting, the largely technical gathering
of approximately 20 BPLS officials and 10 officials from the
Geological Agency summarized work carried out since the mud
erupted almost three years ago until February 2009. He
concluded that much of the information was not much different
from what was presented during the visit of USGS officials last
November (Ref A),although the water and chemistry data was more
up to date.


3. (SBU) BPLS representatives spoke briefly about their ideas
for future research needed from the Geological Agency, including
micro-seismic studies and related seismic tomography (subsurface
imaging). In a follow-on conversation, Dr. Surono, Indonesia's
Chief Volcanologist, told the USG mud advisor that all of the
agency's seismographs were needed to monitor volcano activity
throughout the archipelago. Surono suggested that perhaps USGS
might be interested in providing addition seismographs to
address BPLS's needs.

Subsidence Creates New Problems


4. (SBU) PT Pasific Prestress Indonesia (PT PPI),a concrete
factory which operated for almost three years surrounded by mud,
succumbed after BPLS was unable to repair collapsed dikes near
the mudflow's epicenter. The collapse also temporarily ruptured
the main access road linking the primary Porong road to the
epicenter. Although the walls have been repaired, BPLS cannot
pump the hardened mud out of the factory. Mud continues to flow
west and north, away from the pumps channeling mud into the
Porong River. As a result, BPLS has not been able to take
advantage of the rainy season to shift mud out to sea (Ref B).


5. (SBU) Subsurface shifts in recent days resulted in larger
natural gas flares from wells just west of Porong and a
rejuvenation of large methane gas vents that had lessened or
quit in recent weeks. For the second time, crude oil has begun
spraying at the mudflow's epicenter, although BPLS officials
tell the media they are unable to calculate the exact flow rate.
Large volumes of oil could raise the environmental impact of
disposing of the mud via the Porong river. A local
parliamentarian suggested that Lapindo, the company drilling the
well that caused the mudflow, must share any revenues generated
from oil generated by the mudflow with the government.

Infrastructure On Track


6. (SBU) The government has reportedly made progress on plans to
develop a new infrastructure corridor to the west. According to
media reports, the East Java government has decided to speed up
land acquisition for the toll road's relocation by giving the
compensation money to the court. Local officials complain that
land owners are demanding compensation equal to that received by
mudflow victims although the provincial government is only able
to pay Rp 600,000 (USD 50) per square meter. The USG mud

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advisor notes that the new corridor will include the toll road
and an arterial road, which can be opened relatively quickly,
but not the railroad line. The railroad is renovating old track
sections that connect to the west of Porong, rather than
building new track along the new infrastructure corridor. The
Chinese and Japanese Consuls General in Surabaya are pressuring
the provincial government to act more swiftly to shift critical
infrastructure linking Chinese and Japanese manufacturing
companies to Surabaya's port.
MCCLELLAND