EAST JAVA MUDFLOW UPDATE: U.S. ADVISOR BUILDING

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 SURABAYA 000016

SENSITIVE
SIPDIS

DEPT FOR EAP, EAP/MTS, INR/EAP, AND EB/ESC/IEC
DOE FOR CUTLER/PI-32 AND NAKANO/P-42
COMMERCE FOR USDOC 4430

E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: ECON EPET EINV ELAB ENRG PGOV ASEC ID
SUBJECT: EAST JAVA MUDFLOW UPDATE: U.S. ADVISOR BUILDING
RELATIONSHIPS; SUBSIDENCE AND FUNDING PROBLEMS LIMIT OPTIONS

REF: A. 08 SURABAYA 138 (AND PREVIOUS)

B. 08 SURABAYA 132

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This Message is Sensitive But Unclassified. Please Protect
Accordingly.


1. (SBU) Summary: After almost two months on site, the U.S. mud
advisor Van Williams has built a strong working relationship
with officials at the Sidoarjo Mud Management Agency (BPLS).
The collapse of a major directional dike at the mudflow's
epicenter has hampered BPLS's efforts to move large quantities
of mud out to sea via the Porong River during the ongoing rainy
season. BPLS and Williams would like to reinstall seismic
monitors to help predict the rate of subsidence in the affected
area, especially to the populated north and west of the site.
Cash-strapped Lapindo, responsible for financing the BPLS
operation, is unable fully to fund necessary maintenance or
purchases of critical equipment. BPLS has been able to keep
the situation "kind of under control," but is fighting a losing
battle as the volume of mud coming out of the ground exceeds the
volume BPLS can move. End Summary.

Excellent Cooperation
--------------


2. (SBU) USG-funded mud advisor Van Williams has been working
with BPLS officials at the Sidoarjo mud flow site since
mid-December 2008 (Ref A). During his first two months,
Williams has developed an excellent cooperative working
relationship with BPLS officials and local technical advisors.
He observed to ConGen Surabaya that numerous expert Indonesian
scientists and engineers have done detailed investigations and
compiled data on the mud flow. The tremendous amount of
engineering work being done at the site has largely succeeded so
far in containing the dynamic and constantly changing mud flow
and preventing additional damage to the surrounding communities.
This containment is threatened by accelerating land subsidence
that continuously undermines the central control dikes and
directs the mud in undesirable directions. The difficulty is
compounded by only partial implementation of the internal
mitigation plans prepared by BPLS due to decreased funding from
Lapindo.


3. (SBU) BPLS has had its hands full since the rainy season
began and Lapindo's parent company the Bakrie Group suffered
significant financial losses (Ref B). When the internal dikes
directing mud toward the Porong River collapsed, BPLS lost the
ability to control the direction of the mud flow. Rather than
flowing south toward the pumps, the mud began flowing north and
west, toward the areas of greatest subsidence but also towards
major infrastructure and heavily populated areas. A factory,
which had been surrounded yet untouched by mud, found itself
inundated with muddy water as the mud overtopped protective
dikes. Within recent days, mud has built up sufficiently to
start pushing the mud and water southward toward the pumps,
although this change of course is from excessive buildup
elsewhere in the mud flow area, rather than a fully positive
development.

Subsidence Draws Mud Toward Infrastructure
-------------- --------------


4. (SBU) Subsidence levels on the western side of the site,
where the major road and railroad run, are very high. In
between trains, workers jack up the rail lines and insert rock
ballast to keep the railroad linking Surabaya's port to
industrial areas to the east operational. Methane releases
along the western side are also heavier than in other areas.
Williams identified two types of subsidence: shallow compaction
caused by the weight of the dikes and mud atop foundations of
weak soil, and deep-rooted subsidence caused by the mud coming
up from great depth and leaving space behind. BPLS and Williams
hope that seismic monitors can be reinstalled to help officials
get a better picture of the deep geologic structures controlling
subsidence. Williams expressed concern that the water and
methane eruptions in West Siring and areas to the west and north
of the containment zone could connect far underground and create
new vents for mud to erupt outside the existing dikes.


5. (SBU) BPLS is focused on managing the mud flow and giving
officials sufficient time to relocate critical infrastructure.
The land in this area is only two meters above sea level and

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sinking more quickly than land closer to the sea. Williams
predicted the village of West Siring, and the existing road and
railroad, may eventually be overwhelmed by the mud, but no one
could know when that would happen. Officials told Williams that
50% of the land, primarily agricultural land, needed for a new
transportation corridor to the west of the site had been
purchased. However, officials admitted that they were
encountering resistance from landowners in urban areas.

Operational Funding Inadequate
--------------


6. (SBU) BPLS officials complain that, while Lapindo does not
directly refuse to fund BPLS recommended mitigation measures, it
provides only a fraction of the money necessary to maintain
operations. While BPLS says it needs 100 trucks of dirt a day
to maintain existing dikes, Lapindo provides only half that
number. Pumps needed to move mud from the holding ponds into
the Porong River have been ordered, but delivery is on hold
until Lapindo provides the cash. BPLS continues to push for the
central government to take over funding its operations arguing
that half-measures will eventually have serious consequences.

Looking Ahead
--------------


7. (SBU) Looking forward, Williams is working to deepen the
dialogue between the U.S. Geological Survey, U.S. Corps of
Engineers, and BPLS. Besides technical questions such as
continued chemical sampling to anticipate and predict potential
changes in eruption pattern. BPLS has requested USGS help in
identifying the source of the mud flow's energy as an aid to
predicting the likely duration of eruptions so that realistic
long-range mitigation plans can be developed. Williams feels
this is a contribution USGS is uniquely qualified to make.
Regardless of who will eventually assume the responsibility for
long-term hazard control of the mud flow, such information is
vital for success.
MCCLELLAND