EASTERN FRENCH VIEWS ON WAR IN AFGHANISTAN

C O N F I D E N T I A L STRASBOURG 000005

SIPDIS

STATE ALSO FOR EUR/WE

E.O. 12958: DECL: 2/17/2019
TAGS: PGOV PREL MOPS AF FR
SUBJECT: EASTERN FRENCH VIEWS ON WAR IN AFGHANISTAN

REF: PARIS 193

CLASSIFIED BY: Vincent Carver, CG, Strasbourg, State.
REASON: 1.4 (b),(d)


1. (C) SUMMARY: Most local and regional officials caution that
the French public's tolerance for continued French fighting in
Afghanistan will sharply decrease if there are waves of French
casualties. Viewed from the eastern France, the Central
Government has thus far not demonstrated any concerted strategy
for addressing the public's concerns in this region. End summary


2. (C) We have spoken separately with the mayors of major
cities in eastern France, including Strasbourg, Mulhouse, Metz,
and Colmar, as well as with numerous other local and regional
officials throughout the French regions of Alsace and Lorraine,
over the past five months on the French role in Afghanistan.
Our interlocutors unanimously predict a strong weakening of
French public support (already tentative according to opinion
polls) should there be further serious attacks on French troops
in Afghanistan. Almost all decline to identify what the tipping
point might be, but several noted that another incident like
the August 2008 attack that left 10 French soldiers dead would
generate serious public debate on the future of the French
military presence in Afghanistan.


3. (C) Metz Mayor Dominique Gros, a Socialist, said that
further "substantial" losses by the French would cause
politicians and commentators to link Afghanistan to the French
"civil war" in Algeria. Gros explained that, regardless of the
flaws in the comparison, the public could easily be convinced
that French troops were in a "no-win situation" in Afghanistan
and that the best strategy would be to declare victory and
withdraw. While noting that he supported French involvement,
Gros criticized President Sarkozy for not having adequately
explained French interests in maintaining troops in Afghanistan.
Alsace Regional President Adrien Zeller (UMP) rejected the
comparison with Algeria but acknowledged that the public's
tolerance for losses in Afghanistan is not limitless. Zeller
said that a few more "waves" of "major" attacks would pressure
Paris to either withdraw or set a deadline for withdrawal of
French forces.


4. (C) Strasbourg Mayor Roland Ries (Socialist),discussing the
war in September, told us that the Elysee had done a poor job in
explaining the war to the French public and therefore could not
expect solid support in times of difficulty. Strasbourg Deputy
Mayor Robert Hermann (Socialist) told us in early February that
the GOF would not have an easy time of convincing opposition
politicians of the need to increase France's military
contribution in Afghanistan should such a request come from
Brussels or Washington. The only regional figure who noted that
Paris would have little trouble in weathering any surge in
public opinion against further French involvement was,
predictably, Mulhouse Mayor (and State Secretary for Veterans'
Affairs) Jean-Marie Bockel. Bockel told us recently that the
French Government remained confident that it could weather any
storms an upswing in French casualties might bring.


5. (U) In light of the August 19 deaths of the 10 French
soldiers, the major regional daily, "Derniernes Nouvelles
d'Alsace" (DNA) asked, "What is the strategy, what is the
geopolitical vision, and for what results?" Popular DNA Op-Ed
writer Jean-Claude Kiefer claimed that, "French troops are being
drawn into a quagmire." Lorraine's major daily, "L'Est
Republicain" conducted a poll in October, revealing that 65
percent of respondents replied "no" with 30 percent replying
"yes" to whether France "should continue to intervene in
Afghanistan." While we are not aware of any recent polling on
this subject in this region, our informal conversations with a
wide range of French citizens do little to change the overall
picture from October.


6. (C) Comment: Some of the Socialist politicians with whom
we've spoken view the Afghanistan war through the prism of party
politics - any strengthening of French public opinion against
the war could translate into an electoral weakening of Sarkozy
and his party. Many local and regional officials are struck at
how the GOF has not taken the offensive publicly to build up
public support for the war in Afghanistan. Most of our contacts
here appear relatively relaxed at France's proposed full
reintegration into NATO, although they are wary of the potential
link to an increased French role in Afghanistan.

CARVER