PETROZAVODSK MAYOR RESIGNS IN ROW WITH GOVERNOR

UNCLAS ST PETERSBURG 000008


E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: RS PGOV
SUBJECT: PETROZAVODSK MAYOR RESIGNS IN ROW WITH GOVERNOR


1. (SBU) Summary: Petrozavodsk Mayor Viktor Maslyakov opened
the new year by abruptly resigning in response to last year's
decision by the regional government to move up the mayoral
elections from 2010 to 2009. Several analysts believe the
elections were moved forward because Karelian Republic Governor
Katanandov was dissatisfied with Maslyakov, who operates
independently of the regional leadership and has separate
business interests and supporters despite also being a member of
United Russia. The resignation has caused some turmoil in the
City Council, and may signal a significant shift in the
Republic's overall political landscape.

--------------
A Surprise Resignation and an Even Earlier Mayoral Election
--------------


2. (SBU) On January 11, Mayor Vladimir Maslyakov unexpectedly
resigned from his post, leaving his first Deputy Anatoliy
Buldakov in charge. Maslyakov, who had been mayor of
Petrozavodsk for the past six years, explained that he disagreed
with the recent decision by Karelian Governor Sergey Katanandov,
a fellow member of United Russia, to move up the city's mayoral
election to October 2009. (Note: Katanandov's official title is
President of the Republic). Maslyakov characterized that
decision as an "ill-timed political experiment."


3. (SBU) Maslyakov's resignation obligates the City Council,
which is controlled by groups opposed to both the Mayor and the
Governor, to hold a special mayoral election within six months
after the resignation (i.e. by June 11, 2009). As of now, the
Council's next regular session is not scheduled until March 12,
at which point it will consider potential dates for the new
election. However, it is possible the Council will meet sooner
in an extraordinary session and make its decision earlier.

--------------
Maslyakov's Motives and Future Uncertain
--------------


4. (SBU) According to the federal laws which regulate municipal
governments, Maslyakov's resignation prevents him from running
in any upcoming special mayoral election, and thus it is
unlikely that he resigned with the idea of somehow furthering
his own career. Therefore, analysts believe his resignation was
a form of political revenge against his main political opponent,
Governor Katanandov, since the overall turmoil of the situation
publicly undermines the perception of Katanandov's leadership
abilities. There has been no official information about a
possible new government position for Maslyakov, but there have
been rumors that he has conducted a series of consultations with
unidentified Moscow officials regarding a possible federal level
position or a post in a region other than Karelia.

--------------
Scrambling for Mayoral Candidates
--------------


5. (SBU) Both the opposition in Petrozavodsk and Katanandov's
United Russia faction were unprepared for Maslyakov's
resignation. It is unclear who will be nominated for the
mayoralty on either side. Governor Katanandov has further
confounded speculation by suggesting a scenario in which he
himself could run for mayor and resign his position as governor,
though it is not clear if he is seriously considering this
option (note: Katanandov was Petrozavodsk's mayor in the early
90's). The Council's opposition majority is likely to nominate
either Chairman of the regional branch of Fair Russia Irina
Petelyayeva, Legislative Assembly member Davlet Alikhanov, or
Council Chairman Vasiliy Popov, though the latter may prefer to
keep his current post in light of the ongoing court hearings
regarding criminal charges against him. The Karelian Communists
are also likely to compete for the office by nominating a strong
candidate - likely assemblyman Aleksandr Stepanov (who formerly
was governor/prime minister of Karelia in the early 90's.) It
is also possible that opposition business figures, Fair Russia,
Yabloko and the Communists will form an electoral alliance and
nominate a coalition candidate who could then compete on even
terms with United Russia's nominee.

--------------
Significant Upheaval in Karelian Political Landscape
--------------


6. (SBU) Comment. Karelia is highly unusual in that it has had
three significant and relatively equal political groupings - the
two United Russia factions as represented by the feuding
Maslyakov and Katanandov respectively, and the Petrozavodsk City
Council which is led by local opposition businessmen, Fair
Russia and Yabloko activists. These groupings have operated as
a political triangle with each opposed to the others, with no
one being able of getting the upper hand. Maslyakov's
resignation, however, looks like it will usher in a significant
change in this lineup as it seems to indicate the surrender of

his faction to Katanandov's. In fact, Katanandov has stated
that Maslyakov's resignation has put an end to his party's
internecine fighting, and that the opposition, which had become
accustomed to the ongoing schism in United Russia, will now find
itself in a much more precarious position.


GWALTNEY