UNITED RUSSIA WINS PETROZAVODSK MAYORAL ELECTION TWO WEEKS

UNCLAS ST PETERSBURG 000075


E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: RS PGOV
SUBJECT: UNITED RUSSIA WINS PETROZAVODSK MAYORAL ELECTION TWO WEEKS
BEFORE THE VOTE

REF: ST. PETERSBURG 008



1. (SBU) Summary: Karelia's Governor Katanandov appointed
former opposition politician and mayoral candidate Davletkhan
Alikhanov to the position of governor's representative in
Russia's Federation Council. In exchange, Alikhanov withdrew
from Petrozavodsk's mayoral election, which many thought he had
a good shot of winning. Alikhanov, a former member of A Just
Russia's faction in the Republic of Karelia's Legislative
Assembly, joined United Russia and promised to patch up all
differences and cooperate with Katanandov. Alikhanov's
withdrawal assures victory in the upcoming election for United
Russia's nominee, Karelia's Legislative Assembly Speaker Levin,
who faces no other serious challengers. Prior to these
political maneuvers, the Petrozavodsk mayoral election had the
signs of actually being competitive and offering voters a
choice. End Summary.


2. (SBU) Petrozavodsk's mayor's office became vacant in January
when former Mayor Vladimir Maslyakov unexpectedly resigned
(reftel) over the regional government's decision to move up the
mayoral election from 2010 to 2009 despite Maslyakov's
objections. A special mayoral election to fill the post is
scheduled for July 5. United Russia (with Governor Sergey
Katanandov's approval) nominated Karelia's Legislative Assembly
Speaker Nikolay Levin as its candidate. The majority in
Petrozavodsk's City Council, who are generally opposed to
Governor Katanandov and United Russia, backed former Vice
Speaker of the Legislative Assembly Davletkhan Alikhanov, a
local construction entrepreneur who has been politically active
for years. The City's Election Commission registered both Levin
and Alikhanov , along with six other lesser-known candidates,
while rejecting two other candidates for submitting invalid
registration forms.


3. (SBU) Opposition forces in Petrozavodsk were weakened by the
recent criminal conviction of one of its leaders, former
Petrozavodsk City Council Chairman Vasiliy Popov. Popov was
found guilty in February of blackmailing a politician close to
Katanandov - a three-year old charge that had been revived at an
opportune time for the Karelian Government and United Russia.
(Note: While we can't be certain of the merits of the
conviction, its timing was certainly convenient) Popov would
have been a strong contender in the mayoral election himself,
but, because of his conviction, he is now barred by Russian law
from running for elected office.


4. (SBU) Alikhanov, who had been a member of the A Just Russia
faction in the Republic's Legislative Assembly and had numerous
allies among the party's regional activists, sought the support
of his party for his candidacy. But the party's federal and
regional leadership decided against supporting him for what
appear to be internal party reasons. Moreover, the Karelian
branch of A Just Russia recently changed its leadership,
excluding Alikhanov's allies from major posts. The local
Communist Party also refused to back Alikhanov, despite failing
to nominate their own candidate for the job of mayor. Alikhanov
therefore ran as an independent candidate without official
support from any party.


5. (SBU) Alikhanov seemed poised to win the upcoming mayoral
elections. Recent polls showed that Alikhanov was leading with
24% of the expected vote, while Levin was second with 21%. All
other candidates had less than 10% combined, while some 45% of
Petrozavodsk's residents remained undecided. Alikhanov
maintained his slight lead despite the apparent heavy
governmental pressure on local media. Major television channels
in Karelia reportedly broadcast only positive coverage of Levin,
turning their local news reports into essentially free
advertising for Levin. At the same time, local TV stations
announced they would not broadcast any campaign commercials.
This left Alikhanov with little opportunity to get his message
across and let Levin effectively dominate the airwaves.


6. (SBU) On June 15, Governor Katanandov unexpectedly proposed
that Alikhanov become Karelia's new representative in Russia's
Federation Council. Karelia's Legislative Assembly quickly
approved this proposal, and Alikhanov announced his withdrawal
from the mayoral race. He then entered into discussions with
federal policy makers in Moscow and subsequently joined United
Russia together with his ally Oleg Fokin, who had succeeded
Popov as Petrozavodsk's City Council Chairman. Commenting on
their decision, Alikhanov and Fokin said that they viewed
political consolidation as an important step during the ongoing
economic crisis.


7. (SBU) Comment. Over the course of the year, political
competition in Karelia has been significantly weakened. Mayor
Maslyakov, who was at odds with the regional government,
resigned in January. Next, opposition leader Popov was barred
from running for office after his blackmail conviction. Now,
two other prominent independent political leaders have moved
away from the opposition camp and joined United Russia. As a
result, United Russia's candidate will almost certainly win
Petrozavodsk's upcoming July 5 mayoral race. Additionally,
Alikhanov's allies in Petrozavodsk's City Council will likely
follow their comrade and join United Russia's faction, thus
transforming it into the City Council's major party. End
Comment.


GWALTNEY