Identifier
Created
Classification
Origin
09STPETERSBURG49
2009-04-22 08:20:00
UNCLASSIFIED
Consulate St Petersburg
Cable title:  

MURMANSK - POTENTIAL POLITICAL UPHEAVAL QUELLED

Tags:  RS PGOV 
pdf how-to read a cable
R 220820Z APR 09
FM AMCONSUL ST PETERSBURG
TO SECSTATE WASHDC 2753
INFO AMEMBASSY MOSCOW 
AMCONSUL ST PETERSBURG 
AMCONSUL VLADIVOSTOK 
AMCONSUL YEKATERINBURG
UNCLAS ST PETERSBURG 000049 


E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: RS PGOV
SUBJECT: MURMANSK - POTENTIAL POLITICAL UPHEAVAL QUELLED

REF: ST. PETERSBURG 31

UNCLAS ST PETERSBURG 000049


E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: RS PGOV
SUBJECT: MURMANSK - POTENTIAL POLITICAL UPHEAVAL QUELLED

REF: ST. PETERSBURG 31


1. (SBU) Summary: The March 2009 replacement of Murmansk Oblast
Governor Yevdokimov following his split from United Russia and
support of successful mayoral candidate Sergey Subbotin created
an uncertain political environment for the new mayor, with
rumors that his election would be overturned in a court
challenge. These rumors subsided slightly when Yevdokimov's
replacement, Dmitriy Dmitriyenko, reached out to Subbotin and
demonstrated his willingness to work with him. Subbotin says
his administration will concentrate on the practical issues of
city governance rather than on political conflict with United
Russia. Nevertheless, it is likely that Subbotin will face some
opposition from the Murmansk City Council, which is dominated by
his opponents. End Summary.


2. (SBU) After Sergey Subbotin defeated incumbent mayor Mikhail
Savchenko with Governor Yuriy Yevdokimov's support on March 15
(REFTEL),PolOff and PolAsst travelled to Murmansk to canvass
the new political environment, which included rumors that the
highest levels of United Russia's command structure were not
pleased with the outcome of the mayoral election and had
threatened retribution against the too independent Governor
Yevdokimov. His seemingly abrupt resignation on March 21 was
seen as confirmation of this, and was thought to possibly
foreshadow a potential court challenge which would overturn the
mayoral election and depose Subbotin.


3. (SBU) On March 21, the same day Yevkokimov announced his
resignation, President Medvedev appointed Deputy Head of the
State Fishing Committee Dmitriy Dmitriyenko as Governor of
Murmansk Oblast, a choice which was quickly confirmed by the
Oblast Duma. Contrary to expectations, Dmitriyenko has not
commented publicly on the mayoral race, and the new governor has
shown respect for his predecessor on several occasions. Also,
Dmitriyenko appears to be reaching out to Subbotin, instituting
a new policy of holding weekly consultative meetings with the
Oblast Duma Chairman, the Chairman of the Murmansk City Council,
and Mayor Subbotin. This seems to indicate that Dmitriyenko is
planning on working with Subbotin in the near term, and thus is
not actively working to remove him.


4. (SBU) Mayor Subbotin, in turn, told us that he has left all
electoral and political controversies in the past, and that his
administration will be focused on such practical issues as
housing, utility infrastructure rehabilitation, and debt
repayment. The mayor insists that his relationship with the new

governor is excellent, and that he is ready to cooperate with
United Russia as well. Subbotin stressed that the two major
regional development projects (development of the Shtokman
oil/gas deposits and of the oblast's transportation
infrastructure) cannot be successfully carried out without close
cooperation between all levels of government. He views the
oblast government as a key link between the federal authorities
and the municipal administration of the city, and looks forward
to working with Dmitriyenko to achieve their mutual objectives.


5. (SBU) Though Subbotin's position at this time seems to be
fairly secure, he is likely to regularly face opposition from
the city's Municipal Council, particularly if those plans
deviate too much from the wishes of United Russia. Members of
the Murmansk Council were elected in the same election as the
mayor, but the council campaigns went almost unnoticed as the
public's attention at the time was drawn to the high-profile
mayoral race. A majority of the council members who were
elected appear to be members of, or associated with, United
Russia and were opposed to Subbotin's election. That may be a
strong motivating factor for Subbotin's decision to focus on
bread and butter issues.


6. (SBU) The underlying reasons for Yevdokimov's resignation
remain murky. Some independent commentators we met in Murmansk
consider his resignation and replacement to have been punishment
for transgressing his party's conventions, as well as a warning
to other governors that they should heed the Kremlin's wishes.
However, the Representative of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs,
a manager from the regional Ministry of Economic Development,
and Mayor Subbotin all argue that Yevdokimov's resignation would
have happened sooner or later regardless of the outcome of the
recent mayoral election. They explain that while Yevdokimov was
a good leader who had already led the oblast for 12 years, he
was out of his league in trying to oversee the successful
completion of the ambitious Shtokman and transportation hub
projects. Instead, they argue the region needed a new type of
governor, an effective national-level manager who was
independent of regional interest groups. They claim Yevdokimov
himself acknowledged this reality, and that he resigned when he
did for the good of the region.


7. (SBU) Comment. The Murmansk mayoral election and its
aftermath have confirmed several political trends in Northwest
Russia. First, the voters in Northwest Russia are not likely to
elect Kremlin-favored candidates if a viable opposition
candidate is also on the ballot. Second, the Kremlin has
recently appointed governors who are outsiders and who have
minimal, if any, ties with the local political and economic
elite. And, third, by either eliminating or co-opting potential
non-conformists, United Russia has shown that it is still firmly
in charge despite occasional setbacks. Yevdokimov's
resignation, no matter what the cause, cleared the path for the
Kremlin to appoint a new, and presumably more reliable, governor
to Murmansk Oblast. Also, Subbotin's flexible stance indicates
that he is a pragmatist, and recognizes that he needs to
accommodate United Russia's wishes or will suffer the
consequences. End Comment.


GWALTNEY