ISRAELI AND IRAQI AMBASSADORS TALK IRAN AND

S E C R E T SECTION 01 OF 02 STOCKHOLM 000073

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 02/04/2019
TAGS: PREL PINR MEPP IS IR IZ SW
SUBJECT: ISRAELI AND IRAQI AMBASSADORS TALK IRAN AND
PALESTINIANS OVER DINNER

REF: STOCKHOLM 23

Classified By: CDA Robert J. Silverman for reasons 1.4(b) and (d).


1. (S) Summary: On February 2, at a dinner hosted by the CDA,
Iraqi Ambassador Ahmad Bamarni and Israeli Ambassador Benny
Dagan held a friendly and thought-provoking discussion on the
Middle East. UK Ambassador Andrew Mitchell, Swedish MFA
Director General for the Middle East Robert Rydberg, and POL
Counselor also attended. Highlights of the discussion follow.

The Two Democracies in the Middle East
--------------

-- Israeli Amb. Dagan congratulated Iraqi Amb. Bamarni on the
successful provincial elections in Iraq. Bamarni spoke of
the very low level of violence on election day, and commented
proudly that "Israel and Iraq are the only two democratic
countries" in the Middle East.

Iran's Degree of Control Over Hamas
--------------

-- Iran appears to fully control Hamas, per Amb. Bamarni.
Iran encouraged Hamas to provoke Israel last December, he
alleged, during the period between the U.S. election day and
the inauguration, to divert Israel and America. Iran feared
an attack on its nuclear installations in the waning days of
the Bush Administration, he speculated.

-- Amb. Dagan disagreed, arguing that the Hamas internal
leadership is not cohesive and different factions often
freelance, sometimes going beyond the wishes of Tehran and
other Hamas factions. Dagan sees evidence that neither Iran
nor elements of the external Hamas leadership were happy with
the timing of the rocket provocation of Israel. Likewise,
Iran thought Hizballah's 2006 provocation of Israel was
premature.

-- Hamas and Hizballah freelancing is what most concerns
Israel, Dagan added. If Iran develops a nuclear weapon, then
the Israeli fear is that Hamas and Hizballah will be further
emboldened, under the assumption that they are protected by
Iran's nuclear umbrella.

Iran's June 2009 elections
--------------

-- Bamarni said Ayatollah Khameini supports President
Ahmedinejad, who has remained a "loyal pasdaran." Khameini's
support, as it becomes more public, might well ensure
Ahmedinejad's re-election in the June presidential elections,
he said. Bamarni said the likely outcome of Israel's
upcoming election -- a Netanyahu government -- could help
bring about the re-election of Ahmedinejad. Having both men
in power would be a cause of concern.

Iran's Regional Ambitions
--------------

-- Iran's message to Europe and the U.S., per Bamarni, was
that the road to solving regional problems runs through
Tehran, not Ankara or Cairo or Riyadh (see reftel on similar
comments by Iranian DFM Safari in Stockholm). Iran has
worked hard to marginalize Turkish ruling party AKP's
influence over Hamas. Thus, Hamas leader Khaled Meshal was
visiting this week in Tehran, not Ankara.

-- Bamarni said that during a visit to Baghdad last summer,
an Iraqi friend invited him to lunch with an Iranian
official. When he asked what Iran wanted from America, the
Iranian said "we just want what the Shah had," U.S.
recognition of Iran as the regional power.

How to Deter Non-state Actors
--------------

-- Dagan commented on the discussion in Israel of how to
deter non-state actors, saying "we know how to deter states
like Syria, but we are trying to learn how to deter Hamas."
The current strategy is to use disproportionate force to
respond to attacks by Hizballah and Hamas, noting it may take
repeated strikes in both cases. As long as Israel is
reacting to attacks inside the pre-1967 borders, such IDF
strikes carry 90 percent Israeli popular support, he
reported. Israel lacks a political strategy to accompany the
deterrence, Dagan admitted.


STOCKHOLM 00000073 002 OF 002


-- Bamarni took a historic view, saying Israel faced military
threats from Arab nationalism for its first 20 years, then
between 1967-1989 faced Communist-backed terrorism from the
PLO, PFLP and DFLP, and now is facing Islamist terrorism.
Each of these waves eventually dissipated, he counseled, and
the key is to maintain some positive links with the Arab
populations to help shape what comes next.

Arab-Israeli Peace Process
--------------

-- Bamarni asked Dagan why Israel had not liked the Arab
League peace plan proposed by the Saudis. Dagan replied that
the timing of the proposal, coming in 2002 in the middle of
the second intifadah, made it impossible to deliberate. But
the repackaged proposal of 2007 had received support from the
full range of Israeli government offices and significant
attention in leadership circles. One problem from the
Israeli point of view, he stated, was that normalization only
comes at the end of a series of moves by Israel, including
its withdrawal to pre-1967 borders. There needs to be more
"give and take as we go along," he said.

-- Egypt stopped aggressively policing the Gaza border after
Israel shut the Rafah crossing point, because it felt that
Israel was trying to "push the Gaza problem down the Egyptian
throat," Dagan said.

Swedish Views
--------------

-- Asked about Swedish positions on the Gaza crisis,
Ambassador Rydberg noted that the four-party governing
alliance was in discord on this issue, with the Christian
Democrats and Liberals calling for a tougher approach on
Hamas while the Moderates led by FM Carl Bildt were
forthright in condemning Israel.


2. (S) Comment: The Iraqi and Israeli ambassadors had a lot
to tell each other, and they spoke long into the night,
openly and frankly. Both said they wanted to meet again.


3. (C) Bio Notes:

-- Ahmad Bamarni is an ethnic Kurd from a prominent
Suleimaniyah clan, a Sorbonne graduate, a member of the PUK
Politburo, and a close confidante of President Talabani. For
him, the posting in Stockholm was important because Sweden
hosts the largest Iraqi expatriate community in Europe.

-- Benny Dagan's mother's family comes from Baghdad, though
he was born in Israel. He speaks the Iraqi Jewish dialect of
Arabic. After a tour as deputy political counselor in
Washington 1998-2003, Dagan headed the Middle Eastern
Division of the MFA's Center for Diplomatic Research (roughly
INR equivalent).
SILVERMAN