Identifier
Created
Classification
Origin
09STOCKHOLM654
2009-10-15 15:15:00
CONFIDENTIAL
Embassy Stockholm
Cable title:  

SWEDISH PREVIEW OF OCTOBER GAERC

Tags:  PREL PGOV IR AF CE ZL ZF EUN SW 
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PP RUEHDBU RUEHFL RUEHKW RUEHLA RUEHNP RUEHROV RUEHSL RUEHSR
DE RUEHSM #0654/01 2881515
ZNY CCCCC ZZH
P 151515Z OCT 09
FM AMEMBASSY STOCKHOLM
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 4799
INFO RUEHZL/EUROPEAN POLITICAL COLLECTIVE PRIORITY
C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 STOCKHOLM 000654 

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 10/15/2019
TAGS: PREL PGOV IR AF CE ZL ZF EUN SW
SUBJECT: SWEDISH PREVIEW OF OCTOBER GAERC

Classified By: PolCouns Marc Koehler for reasons 1.4 (B) & (D).

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 STOCKHOLM 000654

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 10/15/2019
TAGS: PREL PGOV IR AF CE ZL ZF EUN SW
SUBJECT: SWEDISH PREVIEW OF OCTOBER GAERC

Classified By: PolCouns Marc Koehler for reasons 1.4 (B) & (D).


1. (SBU) Deputy EU Correspondent Jonas Wendel told poloff on
October 16 that the October 26-7 GAERC will be done according
to the "Bildt Format," which begins with a dinner on the
26th, and a full day of discussions on the 27th. The dinner
topics are:

--Iran non-proliferation issues, and maybe political and
human rights issues;

--Moldovan liberalization and Albania accession (which would
have been a Council Opinion had the Germans not interfered);

The daytime B points are:

--On Afghanistan, the Council Secretariat will present its
report on what more the EU can and should be doing; on
Pakistan, the EU will discuss future configurations of the
EU-Pakistan Summit;

--Middle East Process: discussion on the EU can assist the
U.S. efforts;

--FM Bildt will report on his two trips to Bosnia and
discussion will continue on how and when to close OHR;

--Conclusions will be adopted criticizing Sri Lanka for its
internally displaced persons camp;

--Conclusions will also be adopted ending sanctions on
Uzbekistan.

Expecting that a High Rep for Foreign Affairs will soon be
named as provided under the Lisbon Treaty, the Swedes are
feeling "pressured" to "stay out" of certain areas,
especially Iran. End Summary.

Lisbon Treaty
--------------


2. (SBU) The Swedes are preparing to implement the Lisbon
Treaty on January 1, but they find themselves in limbo,
needing to take action on foreign policy issues but
"restrained" from doing so due to the lack of a High
Representative for Foreign Affairs. Sweden feels "pressured
to stay out of areas that will eventually be led by the Hi
Rep. Wendel said this dilemma especially affects Iran
issues.

Iran
--------------


3. (C) Monday's dinner will focus on non-proliferation, and
maybe political and human rights issues. Two events prior to
the GAERC will influence the tone of discussions: the P5 1
technical meeting with Iran scheduled for October 19 and the

October 25 IAEA inspection of Qom. At Sweden's request, the
Council Secretariat is working on an audit of Iran sanctions
adopted thus far. Some EU Member States view this as a first
step in renewing sanctions, but Wendel said FM Bildt has
stressed that it is not that at all. Rather, Bildt sees the
review as a pragmatic evaluation of the effectiveness of
sanctions. The Council Secretariat might not be ready to
present its report by October 26, and instead report
highlights. Some Member States, including Britain, have
already developed their own lists of renewed sanctions,
Wendel said.


4. (C) If Iran agrees to ship 1,200 kilograms of low enriched
uranium to Russia and France, the Iranian uranium enrichment
program would be rolled back one year, he stated. This would
be a "major breakthrough" and a confidence-building measure.
He added the caveat that the West has underestimated Iran's
uranium holdings in the past.

Moldova and Albania
--------------


5. (SBU) Romania usually wants to discuss Moldova, but its
government collapsed and it lacks an FM to push the topic.
Instead, Bildt will discuss what occurred during the EU
Troika's visit to Chisinau on October 16 to meet with the new
government and analyze the change from communism to
liberalism. Albanian accession was demoted to a dinner topic
because the Germans want to wait for their newly-elected
parliament to review Tirana's application. Some Member
States, including Italy, are upset with the Germans for
blocking the Commission's plan to issue an opinion on
Albanian accession and will make such known during the
dinner. The November GAERC will therefore issue the opinion
that the Commission accepts Albania's application and will
begin to develop a plan of action for Albania to harmonize

STOCKHOLM 00000654 002 OF 002


with the EU acquis.

Afghanistan and Pakistan
--------------


6. (SBU) The EU's new Afghanistan strategy will be a B item.
The strategy has been finalized by the Commission and the
Council Secretariat and focuses on the EU's contributions to
counter terrorism, state-building, and police training.
There will be a "lengthy" discussion of how the EU should
conduct relations with the eventual new government, and what
to do if a second round of elections occurs. On Pakistan, a
"political signal" will be made with the decision of whether
or not to continue holding the annual EU-Pakistan Summit at
the ministerial level, or switch to the "ad hoc" level.

Middle East Peace Process
--------------


7. (SBU) The discussion on the peace process will focus on
how the EU can assist the U.S. There will be no conclusions.

Western Balkans
--------------


8. (SBU) FM Bildt will brief on his October 9 and 20 trips to
Bosnia. Discussion will focus on: how and when the EU should
dismantle the Office of the High Representative (OHR); the
role of third countries (including Turkey and the U.S.) after
OHR closure; and the gradual outphasing of the EUFOR Althea
Mission. Wendel said the Althea discussion will be "tricky"
as the discussion will be over "the change from an operative
capability to a supportive capability." Western Balkans will
also be a theme at the November "Super GAERC" with EU defense
ministers. The Peace Implementation Council "hopefully" will
decide on November 18/19 to phase out OHR, he said.

Sri Lanka
--------------


9. (SBU) The Swedes tried to remove this item yet again, but
the Danes and Brits were "furious" so it is on as a B item.
Conclusions will be adopted criticizing the Sri Lankan
government for its internally displaced persons camp in the
north. Most of the IDPs are civilians and the EU will appeal
to the Government to address the allegations of human rights
abuses, perhaps calling for an independent, international
inquiry.

Great Lakes and Sahel Regions
--------------


10. (SBU) The annual conclusions on the Great Lakes Region
will be given, focusing on Eastern Congo. Wendel said it
will simply be "an update on a bad situation." Conclusions
on the Sahel Region will also be given, discussing the rising
threat from terrorism and organized crime.

Uzbekistan Sanctions
--------------


11. (SBU) In a separate meeting with Central Asian Desk
Officer Henrik Norberg, poloff learned that the Council
conclusions on Uzbekistan will announce the expiration of
sanctions, but also send a clear signal that the human rights
and democracy situation continue to be problematic. The
conclusions will express the EU's concerns over developments
in Uzbekistan and might include plans for a formal review at
a future date, or commission another report by the EU Heads
of Missions in Tashkent. The Netherlands and UK might force
a discussion.


12. (C) The Swedes know the NGO community will be upset--and
rightfully so, Norberg said--but the EU lacks the political
will to keep the sanctions alive. Too many Member States
want the sanctions to go away because they are ineffective:
the visa black list never worked and the arms embargo had no
concrete effect. The benchmarks stated in the first
incarnation of the sanctions remain unmet: Human Rights Watch
and the UN Special Rep have yet to be allowed to conduct
independent investigations of the events in Andijon. Norberg
noted that the Uzbeks will likely try to use the expiration
of sanctions to legitimize their stance that they did nothing
wrong at Andijon.

BARZUN