FOREIGN MINISTERS DISCUSS AFPAK, IRAN, MEPP AT

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 04 STOCKHOLM 000577

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 09/09/2019
TAGS: AF AL CE EUN IR IS IZ PGOV PK PREL SY SW
SUBJECT: FOREIGN MINISTERS DISCUSS AFPAK, IRAN, MEPP AT
SEPTEMBER GYMNICH

Classified By: DCM Robert Silverman for reasons 1.4 (B) and (D)


1. (C) Summary: At the September 4-5 informal foreign
ministers' meeting (Gymnich) in Stockholm, the Swedes
deliberately limited the meeting agenda to provide adequate
time for more thorough discussions, and the Swedes insisted
on strict anonymity in reporting, a format that was broadly
praised by participants. Ministers were also, with few
exceptions, on-message in their statements to the press,
reflecting unusual cohesion as compared to more recent
Gymnichs. While the Middle East Peace Process (MEPP) and
Afghanistan were the focus of ministers' discussions, Syria,
Iran, future EU foreign policy, and EU Enlargement were also
addressed. Regarding U.S.-led peace efforts in the Middle
East, there was reportedly consensus that U.S. efforts must
be supported and were on the right track. Since this was an
informal gathering, no formal conclusions or decisions
followed. Instead ministers used this forum as an opportunity
to prepare for the upcoming General Affairs and External
Relations Council (GAERC) and United Nations General Assembly
(UNGA) sessions when many of these topics will be revisited.
End Summary.


2. (C) In a subsequent meeting with Jonas Wendel, Deputy
Director of the EU Correspondent's Office of the Swedish MFA,
on September 7, Stockholm poloffs were able to obtain a more
thorough readout of the discussions. The highlights include:

--MEPP: Ministers welcome and support U.S. efforts to start
peace talks. EU High Representative for Common Foreign and
Security Policy (HR) Solana wants to keep everyone focused on
the end goal, a two-state solution respecting 1967 borders.
He proposed creating a steering group of Quartet and Arab
states to monitor negotiations. There was support for a
peace conference in Moscow and for continued EU contributions
to Palestinian statebuilding.

--Syria: The Dutch appear to be moderating their human rights
objections to signing an Association Agreement with Syria. A
solution is likely to be found that would allow for a
possible signing in October.

--Iran: The tone of ministers, brief Iran discussion
suggested that enhanced EU sanctions were a question of when,
not if. Swedish FM Bildt ordered a report on EU-Iran trade to
provide a factual basis for continued discussions during the
September GAERC. The EU wants to use the UN General Assembly
(UNGA) week to try once again for new UN Security Council
(UNSC) backed sanctions. If these fail, there is still EU
division over whether the EU should impose new
nuclear-related sanctions or to broaden them to other items.

--Afghanistan: Ministers acknowledged that Afghanistan's
political outlook is grim, but are resolved to continue
engagement. The outline of the new EU AfPak strategy was
well received. Bildt requested that a catalogue of existing
bilateral and EU programs there be compiled in order to avoid
duplication and prod members to do more. Ministers publicly
stressed the need to let the Afghani election monitors do
their job, but discussions did not include a plan in the case
that the election result was disputed.

--EU as Global Actor and Candidates: Ministers were asked to
urge finance ministers to increase funding for Common and
Foreign and Security Policy (CFSP). At the lunch for
candidate country FMs, Turkey,s Davutoglu gave a strategic
overview of foreign policy developments in their region.

MEPP
--------------

3. (C) The Solana Plan: HR Solana presented his thoughts on
the way forward following his recent trip to the region,
Wendel reported. First and foremost he wants to keep the end
goal*a two-state solution that respects the borders of
1967*in sight. If work remains focused on that objective,
which he also reiterated in his public remarks, the details
of the solution will follow. An Israeli freeze on
settlements would be a nice confidence building gesture, but
Solana argues that most likely settlements will have to be
negotiated and will be part of the peace process. Assuming
the U.S. takes the lead in negotiations, Solana thinks there
should also be a steering group, consisting of the Quartet
and Arab states, to monitor negotiations and ensure that all
parties, issues are taken into account in the process. When
a settlement is closer to completion, the Arab states would
be brought into the agreement as parties to the process. The
EU should engage in active mediation to support Washington,s
efforts, possibly setting benchmarks for monitoring progress.
Solana said that a timetable is urgent, and many ministers
agreed that the window to a solution could close in a couple

STOCKHOLM 00000577 002 OF 004


of months. UNGA is the first important date, hopefully
marking the beginning of talks, and the late September
meeting of the Ad Hoc Liaison Group would be another.


4. (C) Ministers discussed the region for over three hours,
according to Wendel. There was support for convening a
conference in Moscow, as this would also engage Russia in the
process. A French proposal to use the Union for the
Mediterranean as a forum for peace discussions was less
popular, given the untested nature of the Union. There was a
general feeling that the EU's strength lies in state
building, although given the informal nature of the meeting
there were no concrete decisions on eg increasing aid to the
Palestinian Authority. Administrative obstacles put in place
by Israel were identified as a main cause of the problems of
running Gaza. The Fayad Plan was praised as a complex,
mature, confident document that inspired confidence among
ministers that the PA was serious about reconciliation.


5. (C) Way forward: There will be no conclusions issued on
this topic at the September 14-15 GAERC, Wendel said, but
Swedish FM Bildt acknowledges that some official statement
will be necessary from the EU before UNGA. Bildt spoke with
Special Envoy Mitchell on September 6, providing a Gymnich
readout, and agreeing that Bildt and Mitchell will coordinate
on the proper timing of an EU statement. This will probably
come during Mitchell's trip to the region later this week.


6. (SBU) Ministers' public statements on settlements were
much less sanguine than Solana,s private observations.
Italian FM Frattini, Finland's Stubb, Sweden,s Bildt, and
even Solana's spokeswoman Gallach called for a stop of
Israeli settlement activity, with Bildt later echoing
Solana,s argument that eventually settlements would be just
one more issue to negotiation as part of a settlement. All
FMs who gave public statements on the MEPP were extremely
pleased with the new U.S. work to stimulate peace talks and
expressed solidarity and willingness to support this work.

Syria
--------------


7. (C) All ministers but the Dutch seemed ready to offer
Syria an Association Agreement. Wendel opined that even FM
Verhagen seemed "more flexible" on the issue than before,
although Verhagen had not backed down on the need to
highlight ongoing human rights shortcomings. The Hague also
harbors some misgivings on the Agreement's nonproliferation
clause and the terms under which the Agreement could be
suspended, although it acknowledges that Association
Agreements are fairly standardized and allow few
customizations. Wendel noted that a statement on human rights
could be issued at the time the agreement was signed;
however, Wendel doubted that a final agreement would be ready
for the September GAERC, so it may be pushed to October.
Publicly, External Relations Commissioner Benita
Ferrero-Waldner said she was sure an agreement would be
reached "in the near future," creating a contractual
relationship between the EU and Syria via which the EU could
monitor rights and other developments in Syria.

Iran
--------------


8. (C) Iran got only 45 minutes of discussion (only 12
ministers spoke) and will be continued at the GAERC, Wendel
reported. Bildt has ordered a factual report on the nature
of EU-Iran trade and on the likely impact of sanctions to
form the basis for the GAERC discussions. No formal
conclusions are expected. However, Wendel noted to his
personal satisfaction, unlike in countless earlier meetings,
discussion this time focused more on when, not if, the EU
must act to impose autonomous sanctions on Iran, and involved
less emotion and more concrete discussion of facts and policy
choices. As Iran's largest export market, the EU has the
means to do more, and there appears to be support for more
sanctions targeted at nuclear-related activity. However, the
majority of member states will not yet accept the notion of
broadening sanctions to include more generic trade or
financial transactions, Wendel estimated. The ministers want
to use UNGA to try the UN process one more time. Were Russia
and China to flatly refuse further targeted sanctions at
UNGA, the EU would be ready to move toward its own sanctions,
or possibly, toward concerted action with a "coalition of the
willing" including perhaps Arab states and/or India. More
likely, Wendel posited, Russia and China would provide an
unclear response at UNGA, and some EU member states will be
tempted to latch on to a new UNSCR that only squeezed Tehran
a tiny bit harder.


STOCKHOLM 00000577 003 OF 004



9. (C) Background: Ministers find Iran,s internal situation
hard to assess from outside, but they sense that the popular
protests after the election have eroded the authority of the
president and the religious authorities, according to Wendel.
As a result, ministers expect a purge of moderates over the
next 1-3 years--exactly the time period over which Iran may
complete its work on a nuclear weapon, if it so chooses.
Therefore it will be very hard for the EU to find moderates
with whom to deal on the nuclear issue. Some ministers wanted
to find ways to support protest groups and moderates, but
others opposed this because it would strengthen Tehran,s
accusations that the protesters were simply the product of
foreign intervention, and would brand EU countries as
subversive. Several ministers found the recent IAEA
assessment to be the most clearcut and worrying to date.


10. (C) Meanwhile the consular crisis concerning EU nationals
detained in Iran shows no sign of conclusion, said Wendel.
The French national Reiss was interrogated by the police late
last week, and the police were under orders to return her to
jail rather than to the French Embassy. Only after the
accompanying French Ambassador negotiated for several hours
was Reiss allowed to return to the Embassy. Wendel said that
if the court returns the "wrong" verdict on EU citizens, the
EU may refuse to grant visas for diplomatic passport holders.
Although such a ban is hard to implement in practice and may
cause few practical problems for Iranian diplomats that
regularly rotate in and out of European embassies, it would
send a political signal.


11. (U) Publicly, ministers urged Iran to respond to the
American offer of dialogue, and hoped for a positive response
to the EU3 plus 3 offer on the table. Bildt was perhaps most
forward leaning, saying that "we want cooperation with Iran
( if they want confrontation, we are ready." Stubb
underscored the need for the EU and United States to present
a united front, and if there is no Iranian response then the
EU will intensify sanctions. French FM Kouchner, on the other
hand, said that UNSC agreement was needed in order to impose
more sanctions, and Austrian FM Spindelegger was likewise
more cautious.

Afghanistan
--------------


12. (C) Discussion of Afghanistan,s political situation
painted a somber picture, Wendel said. Several ministers
alluded to a nightmare scenario where President Karzai
claimed to have won over half of the votes in the first
round, but after fraudulent ballots were taken into account,
Karzai was shown to have won less than half, and his
government loses credibility. There was no discussion of a
possible EU reaction to such a scenario. There was great
concern among ministers that the Afghan people no longer have
confidence that the Europeans can help build a functioning
state, and talk of how the EU could be more effective. FM
Bildt had requested that the European Commission provide him
with a list of member state contributions to Afghanistan in
advance of the Gymnich so that he could &name and shame.8
He was furious when he was told that the numbers provided
were not firm enough for this, and he ordered all ministers
to provide firm numbers to the Commission within 48 hours.
Bildt was, however, able to use information on contributions
to EUPOL to encourage members to contribute more. A
conference to discuss the transition of security
responsibilities from ISAF to the Afghans*announced publicly
by France, the UK, and Germany on September 6*was also
introduced at the meeting. Both EUPOL and other EU
involvement will be discussed further at the GAERC, when more
is known about the Afghan elections. Pakistan was only
mentioned by one minister, who put a possible free trade
agreement on the table.


13. (U) Ministers addressing the press uniformly stressed the
need to stay involved in Afghanistan, as the problems there,
especially narcotics and terrorism, affect Europe directly.
Many journalists asked about the recent air strike called in
by German ISAF soldiers on stolen fuel tankers near Kunduz
and the apparently high casualty count. Most ministers
referred the incident as a tragedy, with Bildt explaining
that even deaths of Taliban "however you define them" are
tragedies. Members of the German media challenged this
characterization at nearly every opportunity, asking FM
Bildt, Commissioner Ferrero-Waldner and others how they could
consider enemy Taliban fighters killed in the attack as
victims. Calling the air strike a "big mistake," Kouchner
echoed others when he underscored the need to "not just bomb
them" but to engage in state capacity building. Implicitly
defending Commission policy to date, Ferrero-Waldner
explained that the new AfPak strategy would help the EU to

STOCKHOLM 00000577 004 OF 004


further improve on existing policy. Programs would be better
coordinated within the EU and with international partners.
Funding was not discussed explicitly, Ferraro-Waldner
explained, but some FMs noted that increased contributions
may be necessary as a result.

EU as Global Actor
--------------


14. (C) These talks centered on funding for CFSP. Ministers
were encouraged to raise CFSP during EU budget talks, and to
have their own Finance Ministries appropriate more money for
CFSP projects. After a short discussion of the powers that
the new High Representative under the Lisbon Treaty might
have, ministers were asked to put their thoughts in writing
for discussion at the October GAERC. In the concluding press
conference, Bildt explained that "there is a demand for the
EU in the world" and he hoped Lisbon would give the EU the
institutional tools to better fulfill its mission.

Candidates, Lunch
--------------


15. (C) Wendel said the lunch with candidate countries FYROM,
Croatia, and Turkey was more strategic than usual and less
focused on candidates' individual accession processes.
Croatian FM Jandrokovic made a positive impression, noting
Zagreb's Euro-Atlantic orientation and arguing that this
perspective should be encouraged throughout southeastern
Europe. He worried that the new Serbian foreign policy
strategy was not solely focused on the west but also
encouraged strong ties to Russia, China and the non-aligned
movement. This, Jandrokovic argued, set the stage for more
"foreign policy games" from Belgrade. He was personally
encouraged that Croatia,s bilateral border dispute would
soon be solved. (Note: Wendel corrected press reports that
claimed Bildt had mediated a Slovenia-Croatia meeting. He had
not, and Wendel did not know if any bilateral talks occurred
on the Gymnich margins. End note) The FYROM FM Milososki was
also optimistic about the resolution of the Macedonia name
dispute.


16. (C) Turkish FM Davutoglu spoke at length. He highlighted
recent steps to improve Turkish-Armenian relations, Turkish
mediation between Iraq and Jordan and between Israel and
Syria. He saw a good likelihood that the Nagorno-Karabakh
conflict could be resolved, perhaps inspiring resolution of
other frozen conflict. Davutolgu outlined the Kurdish
Initiative, meant to satisfy EU demands for better treatment
of Turkey's minorities, help defuse support for the PKK and
ease relations with northern Iraq. Davutoglu stressed,
however, that Turkey needs European countries to also address
PKK elements in their countries. French FM Kouchner was not
present for the lunch and there was little discussion. Asked
what the EU could do to help in the southern Caucasus,
Davutoglu suggested Brussels build a road from the Caspian to
the Black Sea. Special Representative Peter Semneby will look
into it.

Atmospherics
--------------


17. (U) The Swedish Presidency deliberately limited the
meeting agenda to provide adequate time for more thorough
discussions. Focusing their attention primarily on MEPP the
first day and Afghanistan the second, participants reported
having had adequate time to analyze and discuss these
challenges without being rushed. In addition, the Swedes
insisted on strict anonymity in reporting, a format that was
also broadly praised by participants. In an "Avignon-like"
approach, the presidency reportedly allowed only a single
presidency note taker to be present during ministers,
discussions, briefing fellow EU MFA correspondents thoroughly
upon the conclusion of each session. Unlike Avignon where
there was much criticism of this approach because EU
correspondents felt that they had been deliberately cut out
of the process and poorly briefed, the Swedes made it clear
from the onset their reasoning - FM Bildt's desire to return
to the informal atmosphere of Gymnichs past - and ensured
that EU correspondents were briefed in a timely and thorough
manner. Ministers were also, with few exceptions, on-message
in their statements to the press, reflecting unusual cohesion
as compared to more recent Gymnichs.



BARZUN