Identifier
Created
Classification
Origin
09STOCKHOLM567
2009-09-04 14:27:00
UNCLASSIFIED//FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY
Embassy Stockholm
Cable title:  

CLIMATE - ENVIRONMENT MINISTER WANTS TO KEEP PRESSURE ON

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TAGS: SENV KGHG PREL SW
SUBJECT: CLIMATE - ENVIRONMENT MINISTER WANTS TO KEEP PRESSURE ON
U.S. FOR TACTICAL REASONS, BUT PRIME MINISTER TRYING TO GUIDE PUBLIC
STATEMENTS

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E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: SENV KGHG PREL SW
SUBJECT: CLIMATE - ENVIRONMENT MINISTER WANTS TO KEEP PRESSURE ON
U.S. FOR TACTICAL REASONS, BUT PRIME MINISTER TRYING TO GUIDE PUBLIC
STATEMENTS


1. Summary: On September 2, Environment Minister Carlgren told the
Ambassador that the EU Troika meetings with U.S. Special Envoy Stern
were very useful in increasing EU understanding of U.S. thinking. He
put his public statements that the U.S. needs to do more on climate
change in context by saying they were being necessary to pressure
China do more, pressure EU countries to adopt a 30% target, and
pressure the U.S. to use the full possibilities of the Waxman Markey
bill to reduce emissions and finance mitigation efforts in poor
countries. Carlgren said he hoped that by the time of the U.S.-EU
Summit, the U.S. would have made sufficient progress on Waxman
Markey so that the U.S. and Europe could speak with one voice to
press developing countries. On September 3, the Prime Minister's
office separately told us that the Prime Minister's office had
issued guidance for Swedish officials' public remarks on U.S.
climate change efforts; the guidance notes the positive contribution
of Waxman Markey in the long run. It appears to us that Carlgren
was defensive in his meeting with the Ambassador as a result of
being on the receiving end of the Prime Minister's guidance. End
Summary



2. In a September 2 courtesy call with the U.S. Ambassador,
Environment Minister Andreas Carlgren began by stressing the
importance of working with the United States. He said he
appreciated his time with Special Envoy Stern, which allowed him to
understand more of U.S. thinking and how difficulties in the U.S.
Senate limit what President Obama can announce. Carlgren hoped that
Stern also got a greater understanding of EU thinking, and the
problems of getting agreement among 27 countries all with differing
views.


3. Carlgren said that the informal meeting of EU Environment and
Energy Ministers in Are, Sweden in July had given Sweden a basis for
discussions with Stern and others, including a mandate to clarify
that "we need as much as possible from the United States, and need a
process to confirm that we have achieved comparability."


4. Carlgren explained that the work of U.S. and European experts
could make it possible for the U.S. and EU positions to come closer
together, understand each other, and be on fully common ground as to

whether the American pathway to the long-range target is really
credible and consistent with the 2 degree target and the 2050 target
of 80%. Carlgren said he would like personally to say that there
are different pathways to the 2 degree target, and had listened
carefully to the U.S. presentation he received in Washingotn, but
European experts were needed to say the U.S. path is credible.


5. In response to the U.S. side's question on whether this
assessment would be political or scientific, Carlgren said it would
be both, but related to science as much as possible.


6. The DCM countered that the Waxman Markey bill is the best
possible from the U.S. political system, and does get to the
emissions targets through a steeper path. He said Europe can help
the U.S. achieve this by getting China and India to participate.
Carlgren responded by saying it is important to confirm that Europe
understands some of the US difficulties, and important that the US
understand European difficulties.

Why the U.S. Can Do More
--------------


7. Carlgren explained that he publicly says "we need more from the
U.S." because Waxman Markey is more than President Obama has
announced, and within Waxman Markey, there is a range of
possibilities. He said the additional possibilities include more
that the U.S. could do domestically within the cap and trade system,
more that the U.S. could do domestically outside the cap and trade
system, and more that the U.S. could do internationally. Carlgren
said experts had told him that Waxman Markey contained the
possibility for clean development credits whereby the U.S. could
help meet global targets by supporting mitigation efforts in poorer
countries. Carlgren said that when he said the U.S. could do more,
he was careful not to use any numbers and not to discuss these
possibilities because he did not want to make Senate passage more
difficult. He claimed it was Sweden's role as EU President to push
the U.S. to make full use of the range of possibilities within
Waxman Markey because the rest of the world would have to undertake
greater reductions to mitigate global emissions if the U.S. did
less. In pressuring the U.S., Carlgren claimed he was sending
messages to China and Europe.


8. NOTE: Prime Minister Reinfeldt was interviewed by Berlinske
Tidene, a major Danish daily, on August 31. In the interview, he
lowered expectations for COP-15 outcomes, saying that a COP-15
agreement might only be a step on the way to the goal of limiting
temperature increases to 2 degrees above pre-industrialized levels.

STOCKHOLM 00000567 002 OF 003


He said that the EU might have to lower its expectations if it wants
to have some form of agreement coming out of COP-15. His statements
were heavily criticized in Denmark over the next few days, although
the Danish Government refrained from commenting on them. The Prime
Minister's office told the Embassy that the interview created a lot
of extra work for them. At the root of the Danish reaction seems to
be that Sweden breeched the implicit agreement that Sweden takes the
role of the hard-hitting EU Presidency country, keeping pressures on
all other actors to deliver ambitious targets; while Denmark can act
as the honest broker and strike the decisive compromise at COP-15.
End note.


9. For Europe, Carlgren said Sweden's goal was to move its EU
partners to the 30% target. Carlgren conceded that it is absolutely
more important to get China to commit than to get the Europeans to
agree on the 30% target, but claimed that publicly saying the U.S.
position was acceptable would also make it harder to China and
India.

China Serious About Reaching an Agreement, India is Not
--------------


10. Carlgren said Sweden and the EU were as concerned as the U.S.
that India and China might not do anything to reach agreement, and
so far they have not. While developed countries had moved in the
MEF, developing countries had not.


11. Carlgren said China really wants to do something on climate
change. He said that the EU is pushing China to do more than the
U.S. is asking. The U.S., he said, says China's current efforts are
sufficient but China must commit via an internationally binding
agreement. Carlgren said he understood why the U.S. needed China to
be bound by an international agreement in order to persuade the U.S.
Senate, but that the EU thought a Chinese commitment to do more via
domestic legislation would be acceptable because it would be linked
to an international agreement via a low carbon growth path.


12. Carlgren said Sweden had pushed the Chinese hard to do more,
telling them they could really "shock the Americans" and create a
different situation if they were prepared to deviate 30% from a
business as usual path.


13. Carlgren said China has recognized that in passing Waxman
Markey through the House, the U.S. made much quicker progress than
China could have expected, and China feels the pressure as a
result.


14. The DCM noted that Copenhagen was not the final step in the
negotiations, and that if we get China committed to the
international process we can incrementally press them to do more
next year. He also noted that Europe seemed to be pushing on the
easy target in criticizing the U.S., a country committed to reducing
emissions while ignoring China which was not even committed to an
international agreement.


15. Carlgren responded that he had made strong statements during
his visit to China, which made headlines in China and Europe, just
as the statements he made after visiting the U.S. and after speaking
to the European Parliament committee on September 1 made headlines.



16. Carlgren said that India is much more difficult because its
bureaucracy was much more negative on an agreement. He said India's
Prime Minister was criticized at home for having made concessions.
He said India has an efficient negotiator who could be constructive
and achieve a lot if given the right instructions. He said that
although India may not be constructive, it would not block an
agreement. He noted that the British were in India now, and the
Swedish officials would be there for talks in November.

What is Needed to Speak with One Voice
--------------


17. The Ambassador repeatedly stressed the importance of developed
countries speaking with one voice. When he asked Carlgren what was
the likelihood of the U.S. and Europe speaking with one voice to
pressure China, Carlgren acknowledged that the U.S. and Europe were
on the same side on climate change, but said it would be
counterproductive for the EU to accept lower U.S. ambitions now
because it would give China an excuse not to deliver enough.
Carlgren conceded that China wanted the U.S. and EU to lay all their
cards on the table with 100% of their commitments before China would
begin to talk. He agreed that this posed a problem in the
negotiations, but would not agree to the Ambassador's point that
by speaking with one voice we could affect China sooner. When asked
when the EU planned to move from pushing both the U.S. and China, to
working with the U.S. to push China; Carlgren said it depends on

STOCKHOLM 00000567 003 OF 003


where the U.S. is in the Senate process. Carlgren said experts
would look at the U.S. pathway in September before the EU finalized
the Council conclusions October 21, so that hopefully at the U.S.-EU
Summit planned for the beginning of November, if the U.S. had made
progress in the Senate, and the experts deemed the U.S. pathway
comparable, the U.S. and EU could speak with one voice at the
Summit.

Financing
--------------


18. Carlgren said that in Washington he had raised fast track
financing for climate change to provide the poorest countries
financing for mitigation and adaptation to climate change. He said
this was most urgent in the G-20 discussions, and the EU really
wanted to work together with the United States.

After COP-15
--------------


19. Carlgren repeatedly bandied back the Ambassador's efforts to
discuss where we will be post Copenhagen, but finally conceded
Sweden and the EU look forward to working with the U.S. after
Copenhagen, and know that there will be more work to do, and that
Sweden had earlier said COP-15 was the start of the process, not the
end. Examples of future work, he agreed, were technology
cooperation such as was being discussed in the MEF process. Carlgren
noted that he had discussed solar technology sharing with Stern, and
how that could be a promising area to pressure China, India and
other emerging countries.

MEF Agenda is Vague
--------------


20. Carlgren said the EU would appreciate hearing more about the
MEF agenda since State and NSC officials had been vague during the
Troika visit. He said Sweden was prepared to discuss the Australian
proposal, although that was not an EU position.

Comment
--------------


21. Carlgren's audience for saying the U.S. must do more is not
just Europe and China, but Swedish voters in next year's
Parliamentary elections. Carlgren's party, the Center
Party, has made achieving a successful agreement at Copenhagen a
public litmus test of Sweden's success as EU President, and success
as a government. His public criticism of the U.S. is therefore
likely to also have a domestic political motive.

Prime Minister's Guidance
--------------


22. The Prime Minister, however, seems to recognize the need to
guide the message coming from Swedish officials. On September 3, the
Prime Minister's office contacted the Embassy to report that the
Prime Ministers State Secretary Gustav Lind had approved a so-called
"language-rule," laying out approved GOS language about U.S. efforts
in the climate area. The decision came from increasing concerns
within the GOS about too many actors making public statements on the
climate issue, and some recent reactions to Swedish public
statements - from the United States and Denmark. The language-rule
puts forth Swedish government-approved language on U.S. efforts on
climate change. It says the while the U.S. is not sufficiently
contributing to the shared Annex I undertaking to reduce emissions
by at least 25%, it will in a significant way contribute to the
long-term goal, based on the Waxman-Markey Bill's proposal to reduce
emissions by over 80 percent. The language-rule further states that
the GOS recognizes that the U.S. political system does not allow any
simple path for the President to make additional commitments to step
up the level of U.S. ambition regarding the mid-term target for

2020.


BARZUN