JULY GAERC DETAILS AND GYMNICH LOOKAHEAD FROM

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 STOCKHOLM 000496

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 08/07/2019
TAGS: PREL PGOV EU SW IR SO AF PK
SUBJECT: JULY GAERC DETAILS AND GYMNICH LOOKAHEAD FROM
SWEDISH EU PRESIDENCY

REF: BRUSSELS 1048

Classified By: A/DCM Laura Kirkconnell for reasons 1.4 (B) & (D).

Summary
--------------


1. (C) Acting DCM received additional details on the July 27
General Affairs and External Relations Council (GAERC) of the
EU,s Foreign Ministers (FMs) from Hakan Emsgard, chief of
the MFA's European Section, together with ambassadors from
Canada, New Zealand, Australia, Switzerland, and Japan.
Emsgard's readout largely dovetailed with reftel but provided
extra information on next steps on Iceland, Somalia, Iran,
Afghanistan-Pakistan (Af-Pak),as well as an overview of the
EU's fall summits with third countries and quiet
institutional preparations for Lisbon Treaty implementation
following a hoped-for Irish yes. Highlights include:

--On Somalia, an expert report will inform decisions on inter
alia appointing an EU special rep.

--The EU is planning to demarche Tehran on human rights
issues, and will review Iran's response to the P5 1 offer by
the time of the UNGA. FMs prefer to administer any sanctions
via the UN, and by mid September Brussels will begin thinking
about limited unilateral sanctions.

--Swedish Foreign Minister Bildt is pushing for a new Af-Pak
strategy to be adopted by the EU by October, but
complications with elections there could delay strategy
development.

--Stockholm plans to put an EU-Syria association agreement on
the agenda for the September GAERC.

--Climate change will feature prominently in the seven EU
summits with third countries this fall; no decisions are
expected at the EU-Russia summit.

End Summary.

Iceland and Albania
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2. (C) Iceland's EU membership application generated
considerable debate, most of it positive. Emsgard noted that
the IMF is relatively pleased with Reykjavik's progress
although some members are still concerned with resolving
questions about the reimbursement of Icesave account holders
in the UK and the Netherlands. There was also concern that
Albania's EU application not take a back seat to Iceland's.
Emsgard expects that Albania's application will appear on the
September GAERC agenda, provided that the June election
process had been completed.

Somalia
--------------


3. (C) Discussion of Somalia at the GAERC centered on
creating a comprehensive political approach to problems there
and promoting self-government, and reflected Member State
concern that it could become an Al Qaida haven. Emsgard
reported that Swedish Somalia special representative Marika
Fahlen, in the region in early August, will prepare a report
together with other experts that will form the basis of the
EU's next steps. These include the possible nomination of an
EU special representative for Somalia.

Iran: Consular, Human Rights, Nuclear Concerns
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4. (C) The FMs' lunch discussion of Iran focused on the
consular crisis surrounding the arrest of a French citizen;
the appropriate response to invitations to Ahmedinejad's
inauguration; and human rights and the nuclear program.
Emsgard noted that Swedish FM Bildt's good relations with
Iranian FM Mottaki had helped secure the release of the
British Embassy's local staff, and he was optimistic about
progress on the release of the Frenchwoman. The Canadian
ambassador noted that Canadian citizens had also been
detained and requested that they too be mentioned in any
approach to Tehran. The FMs had decided to downplay the
Iranian inauguration and let each country decide whom to
send.


5. (C) Brussels continues to be concerned about human rights
in Iran in the aftermath of the disputed election. Sweden is
making a list of human rights concerns to be included in a
demarche, but Emsgard noted that internal disputes within the

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Iranian government make it difficult for Tehran to respond to
such demarches in a meaningful way.


6. (C) EU outreach on the nuclear issue has been stymied, and
EU High Representative for Foreign and Security Policy Solana
has not had phone calls to his counterpart answered since
April. Emsgard reiterated that by the first week of the UN
General Assembly (UNGA),the EU would evaluate Tehran's
response to P5 1 offers. While FMs prefer to administer any
additional sanctions via the UN, by mid September Brussels
would begin thinking about limited unilateral sanctions
targeted at the nuclear sector.

Afghanistan
--------------


7. (C) The EU's Af-Pak strategy will be on the agenda of the
informal Gymnich EU FM meeting in Stockholm September 4-5,
Emsgard noted. FM Bildt wants the strategy finalized by the
first week of UNGA so that it can be adopted by mid-October.
Bildt wants the strategy in place in order to facilitate
cooperation with partners, particularly with Washington.
Brussels is pushing back against the timeline, however,
because the drafters of the strategy are the same people
monitoring Afghanistan's elections. If the election goes to
a second round ) to be held September 20 ) the strategy
will be delayed.

EU-Syria
--------------


8. (C) Sweden plans to put an EU-Syria association agreement
on the September GAERC agenda, MFA Political Director Bjorn
Lyrvall told CDA in a separate conversation last week.
Sweden sees the agreement as providing the EU more leverage
over Damascus. More engagement is needed with the
Netherlands on The Hague's human rights concerns before the
agreement will be accepted.

EU Summits
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9. (C) Stockholm plans EU summits with Brazil, Russia, India,
China, South Africa, Ukraine, and the U.S. this fall. All
will focus on climate change, responses to the economic
crisis, trade, Doha negotiations, and regional conflicts,
Emsgard said. Stockholm is eager to exchange information
with the U.S. on China's approach to the framework agreement
for the Copenhagen climate summit. Sweden has not yet
received a formal reply from Russia regarding the date and
location of the EU summit, but has no concerns that it will
eventually receive one. The summit will be one for &stock
taking,8 not decision making, with "quality discussions" on
all subjects. Moscow would like to hold a business summit in
advance of the political summit but no decision has been
taken yet.

Lisbon Institutions
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10. (C) Although Sweden does not wish to be seen as
influencing the outcome of the October 2 Irish referendum on
the Lisbon Treaty, the Swedes are quietly preparing to usher
in new EU institutions quickly if the Irish vote "yes" as is
hoped. Ideally, for example, a new high representative for
foreign policy would be in place for the October 29-30
European Council. The new EU external action service would
emerge more gradually, Emsgard reported. A skeleton staff
may be in place by 2010, but overseas deployments probably
would begin only after two or three years. The diplomatic
corps will be small initially; Sweden for its part would
second up to five diplomats.
SILVERMAN