SWEDES TO PROPOSE PARLIAMENTARY BILL ON 2010

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 STOCKHOLM 000462

SIPDIS

STATE FOR SCA/CEN; S/SRAP - KAREN HANRAHAN; SCA/A - ARIELLA
VIEHE; EUR/RPM - AARON COPE

E.O. 12958: DECL: 07/24/2019
TAGS: NATO PREL MOPS MARR AF SW
SUBJECT: SWEDES TO PROPOSE PARLIAMENTARY BILL ON 2010
AFGHANISTAN DEPLOYMENTS

REF: A. STATE 74362

B. STOCKHOLM 460 AND PREVIOUS

Classified By: CDA Robert J. Silverman for Reasons 1.4 (b) and (d)


1. (C) Summary: Sweden is increasing its troop presence in
Afghanistan to 500 soldiers by year-end. FM Bildt has
visited Afghanistan twice in recent months, including the
visit July 24 with Amb. Holbrooke. Senior MFA and MOD
officials tell us the government is now preparing its annual
bill to parliament to extend the deployment. The recent
uptick in violence in the northern provinces may dictate that
they focus on more troops for the PRT in Mazar, with no
increase in mentoring teams beyond the two OMLTS at present.
Sweden is also rolling out a new aid strategy for Afghanistan
(septel); it currently provides $63 million in aid per year.
We recommend senior State and military engagement with Sweden
in September, before submission of the annual troop extension
bill to parliament in October. End Summary.


2. (C) On July 23, Poloffs discussed Swedish plans for
post-election contributions to Afghanistan with Carl Magnus
Eriksson, MFA Director for Peace Support Operations,
Brigadier General Gunnar Karlson, MFA Military Advisor, and
Karin Anderman, Deputy Director in the Department of Security
Policy. Magnusson thanked us for the non-paper, saying he
would study it carefully. Magnusson reported that a new bill
will be presented at the Swedish Parliament this fall
regarding Sweden's calendar year 2010 deployments in
Afghanistan. "No dramatic changes are expected," he said.
Separately, MFA poldir Bjorn Lyrvall told CDA on July 24 that
the recent skirmishes in the northern provinces (septel) have
the potential to tie up Swedish troops, and restrict the
possible expansion of Swedish participation in OMLTS, beyond
the two Swedish OMLTS at present.


3. (C) MOD Director General for International Security Policy
Peter Gothe told Pol Counselor on July 23 that the Swedish
MOD and MFA will begin interagency meetings at the end of
August to discuss Sweden's future presence in Afghanistan.
MOD and MFA will coordinate drafting the parliamentary bill
in September. Gothe stated that consultations with U.S.
civilian and military experts during this period would be
essential. Sweden would be especially eager for
consultations with Amb. Holbrooke and his senior staff, he
said. On the military side, the new U.S. emphasis on the
prevention of civilian casualties was crucial for the Swedish
Parliament and public opinion, and that it would be
especially helpful if senior U.S. military officials could
visit Sweden and speak publicly about the efforts that ISAF
is making in this regard.


4. (C) On the situation in Afghanistan, Gothe reported that
violence in the four northern provinces covered by the
Swedish-led PRT has been increasing for the past two years to
the point that there are now weekly shootings. Before, the
violence had been mostly the result of criminal activity and
only in Pashtun pockets, but now Sweden sees a clear increase
in Taliban activity across all northern provinces. Last
year, the Norwegians started engaging in heavy fighting and
Swedish have been "backfilling" Norwegian positions since
then. At present, Sweden leads the PRT in Mazar-e-Sharif and
contributes to two OMLTs. Current Swedish ISAF troops number
about 430 and will expand to about 500 by the end of the year
(reftel B). A Swedish Air Force C-130 has been in operation
in Afghanistan since May. Sweden will contribute to the EU
election mission, the EUPOL mission, and has pledged USD 63
million in development aid annually over the next three years
(ref B).

Comment
--------------


5. (C) Comment: Sweden can and should do more in Afghanistan.
As the current President of the EU, Swedish actions might
also act as a catalyst for action by other Member States.
The MOD is enthusiastic about seeing its mission increase,
and we note Swedish press reports that 8,000 Swedes in the
military reserve have volunteered to fill slots in the latest
rotation into Afghanistan (overseas military deployments are
done by volunteers here). The optimal time to influence
Swedish decisions-makers as they draft the new bill to extend
the Afghanistan deployment would be in September or early
October. Once the bill is submitted to parliament in late
October, it will be hard to change their troops presence next
year. Sweden intends to invite NATO's senior civilian
representative to Afghanistan Fernando Gentillini to
Stockholm in the fall and would very much welcome a visit by

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Amb. Holbrooke as well. On the military side, a visit by
either General Petraeus or General McChrystal would be
especially important given Sweden's growing awareness of the
deteriorating security situation in the North and the
public's concerns over civilian casualties.

SILVERMAN