GAERC JULY 26-7 AGENDA: SWEDEN'S PRELIMINARY ITEMS

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 STOCKHOLM 000428

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 07/14/2018
TAGS: PREL PARM IC NK BM SO IR KE GG UN EU SW
SUBJECT: GAERC JULY 26-7 AGENDA: SWEDEN'S PRELIMINARY ITEMS

Classified By: Pol Couns Marc Koehler for reasons 1.4 (B) & (D).


1. (C) Summary: On July 14, Poloffs met with MFA Deputy EU
Correspondent Jonas Wendel to discuss the July 27-8 GAERC
agenda. He said that, as the Swedes intended, the agenda is
short to focus discussion on the most important international
issues. Currently, there are three B items: conclusions on
formulating a political strategy for Somalia; extending the
mandates of EU Monitoring Mission (EUMM) and EU Special
Representative (EUSR) Pierre Morel in Georgia; and the way
forward with Iran (at lunch). The possible A items are:
support for the Kofi Annan reconciliation process in Kenya
(at the request of the Dutch); Iceland's membership
application (if submitted on time); widening sanctions on
Burma; and UNSCR 1874 on extending sanctions on North Korea.
End Summary.

Somalia: EU's Political Strategy
--------------


2. (C) Wendel said the EU intends to give conclusions on the
comprehensive political strategy that HiRep Solana began in
June. The draft strategy, written by the Commission and
Council Secretariat, is currently under review by EU members.
Wendel said Somalia is nearing a breaking point, and Sweden
wants to sharpen the strategy to include a set of concrete
contingencies should a crisis emerge. Wendel thinks the
strategy will be ready by the September GAERC. In the
discussion of Somalia, Wendel said that EU members are aware
that Eritrea is "meddling" with Somalia, but it is too early
to look at sanctions against Asmara.

Georgia: Extending Mandates
--------------


3. (C) Extending the EUMM and EUSR's Morel's mandates are
both up for discussion, said Wendel. FM Bildt wants to focus
on the technical aspects of extending the mandates, and avoid
opening up the discussion to broader, political items,
including the South Caucasus. Nonetheless, a political
rational is needed to prolong the mandates. Sweden wants the
conclusions to clearly state that Russia has not fulfilled
all of its commitments since last August, and that South
Ossetia and Abkhazia are part of Georgia. Other Member
States want weaker language that does not name Russia.
Wendel said FM Carl Bildt will not "throw out" national
interests and "will hold out as long as possible" to get
stern language in the conclusions, although the "usual
members" do not support the specific mention of the two
regions.


4. (C) FM Bildt is traveling to the Caucasus on 16 July for a
week as part of a Troika visit. There are sensitivities to
meeting with President Saakashvili, Wendel said, and Sweden
does not support including him in the EUMM mandate
discussions. Bildt is hesitant about what can really be
accomplished.

Iran: Contingencies
--------------


5. (C) The discussion topics for this lunch item are still
being determined, as the EU is waiting to see if the last
local British Embassy employee is released. Bildt has been
in frequent contact with FM Mottaki, who, according to
Wendel, is playing the "good guy." However, failed attempts
over the weekend to set up a call between Bildt and Mottaki
have raised concern in Sweden. If the British employee is
not released by Thursday, the PSC meeting on Friday will be
consumed with discussing the way ahead with Iran. One option
includes "complicating" the issuance of visas for Iranian
diplomats and officials, and a public announcement of such.
But visa restrictions would have "shaky legal grounds"
because a handful of EU members do not require Iranian
diplomats to have visas to travel. The Swedes hope that the
threat would be enough to push the Iranians to release the
employee, but the Iranians are "experts at finding legal
loopholes", according to Wendel. The British might not be
content with only complicating visa issuance, he added,
noting that London still advocates pulling all EU Heads of
Mission out of Iran. Sweden opposes this, as do other Member
States.


6. (C) If the employee is not released by July 26, then the
Swedes anticipate the discussion to focus on withdrawing EU
diplomats from Iran, even if temporarily. The Swedes do not
support this because "there might not be other cards to play"
and they, along with other EU members, are concerned that
their local employees in Tehran could be targeted in

STOCKHOLM 00000428 002 OF 002


retaliation. Solidarity among EU members is strong, and if
the discussion is emotionally charged, then the ministers
might agree to a withdrawal. Wendel added that the British
are pleased with how Sweden has handled the situation.


7. (C) If the British Embassy hostage situation is resolved,
then ministers will discuss the nuclear &crisis." Wendel
said that Sweden was happy with the G8 statement on Iran,
especially because Russia and China supported it. The UK
wants a list of sanctions against Iranian entities to be
prepared now, Wendel said, but Sweden would prefer to keep
discussion at a general level because if the Iranians (or the
Russians or the Chinese) became aware of the EU doing
"specific" and "legal" work on additional sanctions, then
they would complain that the EU was never serious about
giving Iran time to respond to the P5 1 offer. We realize,
Wendel continued, that we have used this argument for two
years now and "for our own credibility" Sweden might now have
to go along with the consensus view of Member States.


8. (C) Wendel noted that Sweden assesses Iranian leaders have
"not really made up their minds about where they want the
process to end." Will they settle for a break-out
capability, or do they want to demonstrate their possession
of a nuclear deterrent like North Korea has done? Because
Sweden thinks the Iranians are still trying to decide this,
Wendel said that the "crunch time" will not come during their
Presidency but rather during the follow-on Spanish
Presidency. Wendel added that Bildt has looked at the
"assessments of many different countries" relating to the
pace of Iranian enrichment activity and has concluded that it
will be "three or four years" before Tehran will have a
nuclear capability.

A Items: Kenya, Iceland, Burma and North Korea
--------------

-- (U) Kenya: At Dutch request, there will be conclusions in
support of the Kofi Annan reconciliation process surrounding
post-2008 elections.

-- (U) Iceland: Applicant EU members are required to submit
applications 14 days in advance of a GAERC, which was July 13
in Iceland's case, said Wendel. The Icelandic Parliament is
"unsettled" on the issue, so the application might be delayed
until September. In addition, Iceland has not consulted
beforehand with member countries, as is customary. EU
members have warned Sweden not to give preferential treatment
to Iceland because it is a "Nordic brother." Sweden, and
Bildt, would very much like Iceland's membership to be one of
the accomplishments of its EU Presidency, but Iceland's
glacial movement on its application is dampening
expectations.

-- (U) Burma: The verdict in the trial of Aung San Suu Kyi
might be known on July 24. In this case, the EU will need to
respond. In the event of a guilty verdict, then the only
response all EU members unanimously support, according to
Wendel, is to blacklist the four trial judges. Other ideas
being floated, but lacking consensus, are to expand the list
of banned luxury items and to limit sectoral investments by
EU businesses. If there is no verdict, then the EU will
issue a statement.

-- (U) North Korea: The GAERC will produce a paper regarding
the new set of sanctions under UNSCR 1874. Normally, a UN
Security Council resolution should be adopted by the EU
within 45 days, said Wendel. There already is some agreement
on the core set of new sanctions under UNSCR 1874, but the
Council must agree whenever a common position is changed.
Wendel noted that Sweden opposes France's proposed expansion
of the list of luxury goods banned for export to the DPRK,
but discussion on that topic is ongoing.
SILVERMAN