SWEDISH CLIMATE OFFICIALS EAGER TO WORK WITH OUR EXPERTS

UNCLAS STOCKHOLM 000385

OES PLESE PASS TO S/E TODD STERN, JONATHAN PERSHING, AND CLIMATE
TEAM

SIPDIS

SENSITIVE

E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: SENV KGHG PREL ECON SW
SUBJECT: SWEDISH CLIMATE OFFICIALS EAGER TO WORK WITH OUR EXPERTS
TOWARDS JOINT POSITIONS


1. (SBU) Summary: On June 17, Svante Bodin, Director at the
Swedish Environment Ministry's Climate division told us the Bonn
UNFCCC negotiations made progress in some areas, but more
importantly did not suffer any setbacks. He appeared eager to work
with Pershing and other experts to arrive at joint U.S.-EU
positions, e.g., on mitigation targets for the developing world.
End summary.


2. (U) CDA and Embassy staff met Svante Bodin, Director, and Katja
Awiti, Deputy Director, of the Division for Environmental Quality at
the Environment Ministry, on June 17 to get the Swedish readout on
the Bonn negotiations, and what lies ahead. Bodin's macro-view on
Bonn is that not much progress was made, but that it importantly was
not a step back. Among the successes is work in the long-term
cooperative action working group -- where they even started the
second reading.


3. (SBU) Bodin told us that he and Jonathan Pershing got together
in Bonn, discussing the U.S.-EU expert level talks, scheduled to
take place on July 20-21. The talks, which might take place via
DVC, will cover economic analysis, comparability, pathways and other
topics in the mitigation field. Bodin will coordinate in advance
with the EU troika and possibly some additional experts for this
meeting. Bodin proposed as a possible U.S.-EU topic for this
meeting would be joint calculations of mitigation goals for the
developing countries -- i.e. what common goal should the EU and the
U.S. push China for?


4. (SBU) CDA raised the comparability discussion, to which Bodin
replied that it is hard to evaluate comparability. Assessments of
emissions reductions for the U.S. range from 0-23 percent, and he
cited the World Resource Institute's recent study on the high end of
what the Waxman/Markey bill would deliver. The higher figure takes
into account CDM's, Joint Implementation, and other measures abroad,
and so-called red credits to avoid deforestation. When discussing
the Waxman/Markey Bill, Bodin commented that the process, thus far,
has been remarkably fast.


5. (SBU) Bodin also spoke of Swedish views of mid-term targets,
and the hope for agreement on a global peak by 2020; perhaps with
the differentiation of peak 2015 for the developed world and 2030
for the developing. Bodin commented that Annex 1 countries have
already peaked, in part due to the financial crisis, so that the
peak year will be entirely in the hands of the developing world.


6. (SBU) We discussed the U.S. focus on China, which according to
Bodin is understandable given Congress' interest in seeing China
undertake comparable efforts. The Chinese undertaking is also
important to the EU, as China must commit to limitations, else we
will not achieve the 2 degree Celsius goal. Also, China's per
capita emissions (6 tons/year, 2007 figures) already places China at
the low end of EU-emitters -- so China's arguments are quickly
dwindling, according to Bodin.


7. (SBU) One of the hot topics in Bonn was the historical
responsibility discussion. Bodin noted that the historical
responsibility arguments (as raised by Bolivia, China and India) are
not supported by the convention texts. He opined that the developed
world must help demonstrate the decoupling of emissions reduction
and economic growth, and help demonstrate alternative technologies
to generate growth. The Chinese show considerable interest in all
technology transfer discussions, which can be helpful in addressing
the historical responsibility arguments.


8. (SBU) Comment: Bodin, at least in this meeting, was very
forthcoming and eager to work with our climate experts towards joint
positions vis-`-vis China. End comment.

SILVERMAN