Identifier
Created
Classification
Origin
09STOCKHOLM384
2009-06-24 19:08:00
SECRET
Embassy Stockholm
Cable title:  

SCENESETTER FOR ASSISTANT SECRETARY GORDON'S JULY

Tags:  PREL PGOV PINR ECON SENV SW 
pdf how-to read a cable
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PP RUEHDBU RUEHFL RUEHKW RUEHLA RUEHNP RUEHROV RUEHSL
DE RUEHSM #0384/01 1751908
ZNY SSSSS ZZH
P 241908Z JUN 09
FM AMEMBASSY STOCKHOLM
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 4447
INFO RUEHZL/EUROPEAN POLITICAL COLLECTIVE PRIORITY
S E C R E T SECTION 01 OF 03 STOCKHOLM 000384 

SIPDIS

FOR A/S PHIL GORDON FROM CDA BOB SILVERMAN

E.O. 12958: DECL: 06/17/2019
TAGS: PREL PGOV PINR ECON SENV SW
SUBJECT: SCENESETTER FOR ASSISTANT SECRETARY GORDON'S JULY
2-4 VISIT TO STOCKHOLM

Classified By: CDA Bob Silverman for reasons 1.4 (B and D).

Introduction & Summary
----------------------

S E C R E T SECTION 01 OF 03 STOCKHOLM 000384

SIPDIS

FOR A/S PHIL GORDON FROM CDA BOB SILVERMAN

E.O. 12958: DECL: 06/17/2019
TAGS: PREL PGOV PINR ECON SENV SW
SUBJECT: SCENESETTER FOR ASSISTANT SECRETARY GORDON'S JULY
2-4 VISIT TO STOCKHOLM

Classified By: CDA Bob Silverman for reasons 1.4 (B and D).

Introduction & Summary
--------------


1. (U) Embassy Stockholm warmly welcomes you to Sweden. The
mood in Sweden is both eager anticipation for its turn to set
the agendas and chair the EU meetings, and a bit of
trepidation at the daunting list of issues, starting with the
financial crisis and climate change. Bilateral relations are
very close and collaborative, and you will find good partners
in FM Carl Bildt and his team, as well as PM Fredrik
Reinfeldt and his team. Their Moderate Party ideology may be
center-right in the Swedish spectrum, but that translates
into slightly left of center in the US spectrum, with
Reinfeldt a firm supporter of Sweden's social welfare system.


2. (C) The key to success, for Sweden and US-Sweden
relations, will be an engagement that keeps Sweden focused
and coordinated with us on our key foreign policy priorities.
Both Bildt and Reinfeldt have strong interests in working
closely with us, Reinfeldt like other Europeans wants close
association with the President. We can get concrete
deliverables from them in advance of the US-EU Summit this
fall. We recommend focusing on three in the foreign policy
arena:

-- Guantanamo resettlement;
-- Support for our Iran policy; and
-- Leadership on Afghanistan (specifically expansion of the
EUPOL mission and aid).

There will be other issues that present opportunities for
Sweden as EU President to play a significant role, such as on
the Arab-Israeli conflict where they have long-term interests
with both sides. Finally, there is a major danger of discord
on another issue - climate change - which will require close
engagement as well and we will provide the latest Swedish
thinking on that issue septel, with the key Swedes just now
coming back from the Major Economies Forum in Mexico City.
End Introduction and Summary.

Sweden's EU Presidency Priorities; Preview of Your Meetings
-------------- --------------



3. (U) Sweden has six articulated priorities for its EU
Presidency:

- Manage the financial crisis. Help restore market
confidence by, inter alia, strengthening existing market
regulation and seeking to create a new EU-wide regulator.

- Lead the EU into a global climate agreement, PM Reinfeldt's
personal goal. The current strategy involves urging the US,
Canada and other developed countries to adopt high carbon
mitigation targets, which the Swedes and other EU members
believe will lead to binding commitments by China and the
major G-77.

- Adopt the "Stockholm Program" for harmonizing asylum and
migration issues, intended to better share the burdens of
refugee resettlement (but which doesn't include Guantanamo
detainees).

- Launch a Baltic Sea Strategy, involving only the EU member
littoral states and not Russia, intended to foster trade and
regional environmental ties.

- Continue the EU accession program, on Croatia and Turkey
and possibly Iceland, sending the important signal that the
EU remains open to new members. Specifically seek to open
the energy chapter of the Turkish accession negotiations.

- Implement the Lisbon Treaty, should the Irish referendum
break the right way, and appoint a new Commission.


4. (C) Your schedule includes a combination of multilateral
and bilateral meetings. The two multilateral ones are the EU
Political Directors luncheon (with all 27 EU PolDirs),and
the follow-on Political Directors Troika meeting (Robert
Cooper, Director General for External Affairs at the EU
Council; Karel Kovanda, Deputy DG of the EC Directorate for
External Affairs; and possibly the Spanish PolDir,
representing the next EU Council President). The proposed
bilateral meetings include a one-on-one dinner with Bildt, a
meeting with PolDir Lyrvall and National Security Advisor
Gustav Lind, a dinner hosted by Lyrvall that includes State
Secretary for Foreign Affairs Frank Belfrage, and a brain
storming session with Belfrage on major themes and
deliverables for the U.S.-EU Summit. Following is background

STOCKHOLM 00000384 002 OF 003


information with post assessment of Swedish positions on
several key issues.

Guantanamo
--------------


5. (C) Post has asked Sweden multiple times to accept
Guantanamo detainees for resettlement. They have not yet
agreed to do so, but Minister of Migration Tobias Billstrom
has told us that Sweden now strongly approves of the "general
approach" the U.S. Administration has taken on detainees, and
that if Sweden can assist, it would like to do so, noting
though that this is a very difficult request, given the
already high level of popular concern with Middle Eastern
refugees. The Swede on the street feels the country has
already done its share, by taking in over 120,000 Iraqis,
including over 40,000 in the past three years, giving it the
largest Iraqi community in Europe. For Sweden to accept
former detainees, per the Migration Minister, there must be a
"quality branding" for individual asylum seekers "achieved by
using UNHCR." Now with the US-EU memorandum and the May 29
UNHCR letter to Special Envoy Fried, you might wish to urge
the Swedes to help build momentum within the EU by announcing
that they will accept two or more detainees for resettlement.
But we shouldn't expect an immediate "yes." We assess that
the government will accept detainees for resettlement, but
wants to show its public that it won't be among the first
Euros to do so. This commitment will likely come in the
context of planning a US-EU Summit in the fall, which will
have a bilateral aspect, unless there is an earlier bilateral
opportunity between the President and Prime Minister.

Iran
--------------


6. (S) Sweden used to be among the EU members most vocally
opposed to EU autonomous sanctions on Iran, according to
readouts of EU meetings, both out of principle ("sanctions
are a blunt instrument that never work and only harm innocent
civilians") and out of concern for trade and investment
(Volvo trucks and Ericsson mobile phone equipment and cell
networks are the main Swedish players in Iran). Moreover,
we assess that Bildt may hope to play a quiet but significant
role in helping to broker a deal on the nuclear problem,
based on the number of high-level contacts between Stockholm
and Tehran. Nonetheless, following the President's outreach,
and the Iranian regime's brutal reaction to the
demonstrations, and also persistent British pressures, the
Swedish position has shifted dramatically. MFA interlocutors
now tell us that Sweden will not block EU efforts to
"pre-designate" entities linked to Iran's WMD and missile
programs, preparing the way for possible formal designation
in the fall. Bildt has publicly condemned the Iranian regime
and sent messages to Teheran. Now, Bildt may well be in a
position to lead in announcing an intention to join in the
"crippling sanctions" called for by the Secretary if Iran
does not cease its enrichment activities. The Swedes are
always more receptive to proposals that are placed squarely
in the context of common goals such as strengthening the NPT
and countering Iranian efforts to contravene the authority of
the UN Security Council and the IAEA.

Afghanistan
--------------


7. (C) Sweden has 400 troops based in four provinces in
Regional Command-North headquartered in Mazar-i Sherif, and
another 100 will be deployed by end 2009, including a second
OMLT and a C-130 at ISAF HQ's disposal. Medevac helicopters
are coming in 2010-2011. Recent security incidents in and
around the Swedish PRT in Mazar-e Sharif involved the ambush
and killing of ten Afghan police officers and firing on
Swedish troops. In the aftermath, Sweden is determined to
enhance security in its PRT during the election season, but
under current budgetary and legislative conditions we cannot
expect Sweden to deploy forces beyond the 500 already
assigned in this calendar year. On the civilian side,
however, Sweden can -- and should -- do more. It currently
has three officers in EUPOL and three more training in
Sweden, but the head of the joint MoD/MFA-run training
academy has reported that several dozen more Swedish
policemen want to go to Afghanistan. You may wish to urge
that Sweden again demonstrate leadership by deploying
additional police trainers to EUPOL as part of its effort to
spur a stronger response from other EU Member States.
Building upon the June 17 EU-Pakistan Summit, we also expect
the Swedes to energize the EU to maximize the potential
levers of development aid and emergency humanitarian
assistance for Pakistan.


STOCKHOLM 00000384 003 OF 003


Middle East Peace Process
--------------


8. (C) Sweden is the rare European that maintains good
relations with both the Israelis and the Palestinians.
High-level visits to the Middle East in the past year, by
Bildt, Lyrvall and Belfrage, and Aid Minister Gunilla
Carlsson, show a determination to engage and an interest in
playing a signficant role if conditions warrant. Swedish
mediation on this conflict goes back to 1948 and Count Folke
Bernadotte, the first UN mediator. Sweden is also the third
largest donor to UNRWA (after the US and EU),and has a large
direct bilateral aid program to the Palestinians as well.
Thus we assess Sweden would provide an appropriate venue for
international meetings on the Middle East, as it did for the
highly successful review conference of the International
Compact with Iraq held in Stockholm in May 2008. The Swedes
are intensely interested in knowing how the USG will follow
up the President's Cairo speech with concrete actions. You
may wish to parlay their interest into a discussion of how
the EU can help us assure the Israelis and stimulate
confidence building measures by key Arab countries. Of
particular interest is the plan, supported by Sweden, to sign
an EU-Syria partnership agreement during the Swedish
Presidency.

Bio Notes
--------------


9. (C) Bildt has only two senior trusted aides in the MFA -
Lyrvall and Belfrage, and the three function as a team, with
at least one of them always in capital. Political Director
Bjorn Lyrvall is Sweden's former ambassador to the EU's
Political and Security Committee in Brussels. He served as
Carl Bildt's assistant when Bildt was the High Representative
to Bosnia 1995-1997, and before that was a Russian specialist
in the MFA. He is youngish (mid-40's) and widely respected
throughout the MFA. Belfrage is at the end of a
distinguished career (facing retirement at 65) after serving
as ambassador to France, the EU, and Saudi Arabia. He is
most remembered here for his job as chief negotiator of
Sweden's accession to the EU during the Bildt government
1992-93. Lind is a mid-30's former State Secretary for
Migration, and professor of international law at the National
Defense College. Lind has a narrower focus, reflecting
Reinfeldt's interests in Turkey accession and EU issues. He
is the only one of your interlocutors who belongs to the "New
Moderates," the young turks led by Reinfeldt who overthrew
the older pols in the party (including Bildt) after the 2002
parliamentary elections.

SILVERMAN