SWEDEN ON APRIL 27-28 GAERC

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 STOCKHOLM 000259

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 04/24/2019
TAGS: PREL PGOV EU SW
SUBJECT: SWEDEN ON APRIL 27-28 GAERC

REF: A. APRIL 17 GIAQUE E-MAIL

B. STOCKHOLM 231

Classified By: Pol Counselor Marc Koehler for reasons 1.4 (B) & (D).


1. (C) Summary: We discussed Ref A GAERC points with Swedish
MFA Political Director Bjorn Lyrvall, the EU Correspondent's
office, and MFA country desks April 22-24. They told us the
Czechs keep changing the GAERC agenda and Sweden wants to add
a point on the possibility of the EU publishing human rights
reports on each country in the world. Sweden anticipates
discussion on why the U.S. is calling for additional
sanctions on Iran now -- before it is clear how Tehran will
respond to overtures. A second tranche of IMF money would
stabilize Ukraine for the time being, but political problems
may be endemic in the mid-term. End Summary.


2. (C) CDA met with MFA Political Director Bjorn Lyrvall
April 24 to discuss ref A points on Iran sanctions, Eastern
Partnership and Ukraine, as well as other issues (to be
reported septel). Emboffs followed up Ref B discussions with
Sweden's EU Correspondent and MFA country desk officials
April 22-23. Highlights follow:

GAERC Agenda
--------------


3. (U) The agenda for the April 27-28 GAERC keeps growing,
according to the EU Correspondent's office. The most recent
version lists:

-- EU Neighborhood Policy Progress Reports
-- Burma
-- U.S.-EU Summit Read-out
-- Middle East Peace Process
-- Eastern Partnership
-- Moldova/Ukraine (lunch discussion)
-- Iran
- Sri Lanka: statement on the human rights situation
-- Somalia
-- Mediterranean Immigration Problems
-- Durban Conference follow-up
-- "Openness in the EU on Human Rights Work" (tentative)

Iran
--------------


4. (C) No formal discussion will take place, the EU
Correspondent's office told us, but Council conclusions
prepared by working groups beforehand will be issued that
state Iran should take advantage of the opportunities now
being offered by the new U.S. administration. On the
possibility of autonomous EU sanctions, POL Director Lyrvall
said there is no consensus on new designations and the best
that could be hoped for is to strengthen implementation of
existing UN Security Council resolutions; enforcement has
been allowed to weaken while the U.S. Iran policy review was
underway. Lyrvall said he also expects discussion on why the
Americans would be calling for sanctions now, before enough
time has been given to the Iranians to respond to recent
overtures. Moreover, there is not even consensus among the
EU3 on the need for additional designations, Lyrvall claimed.
Perhaps in a few months, possibly September, if Tehran has
not responded, it might be time for Washington to "use the
considerable political capital" it has built up to bring
Russia and China along on a new UNSC resolution. CDA replied
that existing resolutions call for member states to exercise
vigilance over suspect entities and to take necessary
measures to prevent the supply, sale or transfer of
proliferation-related cargoes, all of which strongly suggests
additional designations should be made now.

Ukraine
--------------


5. (C) Lyrvall stated that Sweden's ambassador in Kiev thinks
a second tranche of IMF loans will keep the economy afloat
for some months, providing some "life support" to an economy
in crisis. President Yushchenko and Prime Minister
Tymoshenko seem to be working together on the IMF, if not on
anything else, he said. Yushchenko is losing power and
Sweden assesses that Tymoshenko would win the second-round
runoff of the presidential election likely to be held this
autumn, but she will need to engineer the appointment of a
loyal prime minister to maintain her ability to "run the
apparatus." In the long-term, Sweden sees the same battles
recurring as future President Tymoshenko contests with the
new premier for influence. This would limit the possibility
of closer Ukraine-EU ties envisioned by the Eastern
Partnership, Lyrvall stated.

Middle East Peace Process
--------------

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6. (C) There is no appetite in the EU to upgrade the
Israel-EU partnership until the Israeli government shows its
true intentions towards the Palestine Authority, the EU
Correspondent told us. Discussion will focus on Gaza and
humanitarian issues. Sweden urges the border crossings be
opened immediately. The international community cannot
ignore Hamas, Lyrvall noted. "Fatah-only elections would
mean the end of the Palestinian state." On the possibility
of an association agreement with Syria, Lyrvall said Sweden
was waiting to see the results of the elections in Lebanon.


Openness in the EU on Human Rights Work
--------------


7. (U) Swedish FM Bildt proposed this agenda item, though it
might be struck if time runs out. Sweden publishes annual
human rights reports for all countries and Bildt would like
the EU to do the same.

Burma
--------------


8. (C) A formal decision and Council Conclusions will be
made; there might be a short discussion if time allows,
according to the EU Correspondent. The EU will not change
its current policy, according to the Southeast Asia desk, but
probably will express its willingness to increase aid and
show that it is "ready to commit." Sweden does not want
sanctions to harm humanitarian assistance, and wants to build
on the "positive" developments with respect to greater access
to the country. U.S.-EU cooperation on this issue should be
expanded.

Mediterranean Immigration
--------------


9. (U) Moldova and Italy called for this item to be on the
agenda due to a recent incident where a group of immigrants,
including a pregnant woman, was left floating in the
Mediterranean as countries argued over which state should
provide refuge.

Summits
--------------


10. (C) On a side note, the EU Correspondent said the Czechs
keep changing their mind whether or not to hold "certain
summits." Thus, while the U.S.-EU Summit is currently on the
official Czech calendar, we were told, it is very possible
that the Czechs will push it off to the Swedes.
SILVERMAN