BELARUS, EASTERN PARTNERSHIP AND WESTERN BALKANS:

C O N F I D E N T I A L STOCKHOLM 000212

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 03/26/2019
TAGS: PREL BO GG MW ZL SW
SUBJECT: BELARUS, EASTERN PARTNERSHIP AND WESTERN BALKANS:
SWEDISH MFA COMMENTS ON LIKELY GYMNICH DISCUSSION

Classified By: CDA Robert Silverman for reasons 1.4(b) and (d).


1. (C) Summary: EU foreign ministers meeting informally in
the "Gymnich" format March 27-28 will reach a decision on the
question of Belarus' participation at the May 7 European
Summit, according to Sweden's senior MFA official dealing
with EU matters. A "Burma solution" that has the Belarus
foreign minister representing Minsk at head of state meetings
is one possibility. On Montenegro, Sweden wants to see the
application process go forward now, but Germany and others
are opposed, calling for a strategic discussion on all
applicant countries first. End Summary.


2. (C) In a May 26 meeting, Swedish MFA EU Correspondent
Magnus Scholdtz told Pol Counselor that Sweden is extremely
satisfied with European Council conclusions on the Eastern
Partnership (EaP),which make clear that Belarus will be a
part of the initiative. The extent of its participation,
however, will be determined by the pace of reform inside the
country. Scholdtz said Sweden will push for more reform
between now and the May 7 European Summit, and insist that
Minsk not recognize South Ossetia and Abkhazia. It will be
important to ensure that no recognition occurs on May 8
either, Scholdtz added, lest Georgia walk out of multilateral
aspects of the EaP.


3. (C) Sweden is "skeptical" over the possibility of
President Lukashenko attending the summit, but is sensitive
to the concerns of other EU Member States about the need to
maintain a "delicate balance" between carrots and sticks.
Scholdtz said he expects ministers will make a decision on
the issue tomorrow, possibly along the lines of a "Burma
solution" that would entail Belarus, foreign minister
representing the government at head of state functions.
Scholdtz noted that the Dutch are firmly opposed to
Lukashenko,s attendance -- indeed, the Hague was opposed to
any participation by Belarus in the EaP.


4. (C) Over lunch on March 28, ministers will discuss the
Western Balkans, Scholdtz said. Sweden wants Montenegro,s
application to be "dealt with quickly" and wants ministers to
task the Commission to produce an avis. Nonetheless, Germany
-- supported by the Netherlands, Belgium, and Luxembourg --
is opposed to moving on Montenegro now and insists instead
that a "strategic discussion" be held with respect to all
likely EU applicants, starting with Albania, Serbia and
Bosnia. The French, looking for support for their position
against Turkish accession, are going along with the Germans,
Scholdtz added.


5. (C) Sweden thinks the 2003 Thessaloniki Agenda for the
Western Balkans offers sufficient guidelines for thinking
about enlargement, but Sweden will not insist on a timetable
for Montenegro now. In any event, there will be a Presidency
declaration on the Western Balkans on Saturday May 28 that
will repeat the Thessaloniki points, according to Scholdtz.
Foreign ministers from Western Balkan states will be invited
to take part in the discussion on their region; the Kosovo
delegation will have placards that only list their names,
however, "to avoid rattling Serbian sensibilities."


6. (C) With respect to visa liberalization for citizens of
the Western Balkans, Scholdtz said that there is general
agreement in European MFAs about the importance of this tool,
but that as soon as the issue is considered by interior
ministries, objections arise. Germany, the Netherlands, and
Belgium remain strongly opposed to visa liberalization, he
added.
SILVERMAN