SWEDISH MFA CLAIMS EU FOREIGN MINISTERS TO APPROVE

C O N F I D E N T I A L STOCKHOLM 000211

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 03/26/2019
TAGS: PREL EU SY SW
SUBJECT: SWEDISH MFA CLAIMS EU FOREIGN MINISTERS TO APPROVE
EU-SYRIA ASSOCIATION AGREEMENT

REF: STOCKHOLM 172

Classified By: CDA Robert Silverman, Reasons 1.4 (b) and (d)


1. (C) Summary: An EU-Syria Association Agreement will be
approved by EU foreign ministers meeting informally in the
"Gymnich" format March 27-28, according to Sweden's senior
MFA officials dealing with EU matters. Discussion at the
Prague meeting is expected to be "operational" on the topic,
leading to agreement that is "everything but official."
Momentum grew after the re-establishment of diplomatic ties
between Beirut and Damascus last month. On Iran, the EU3 are
expected to brief foreign ministers on the dates the USG will
announce the results of its Iran policy review; our contacts
claim that British sources informed them such would occur
April 7-8. Sweden wants close cooperation on Iran so it can
do its best to play along during its EU Presidency,
July-December 2009. End Summary.


2. (C) Sweden,s EU correspondent Magnus Scholdtz and deputy
correspondent Jonas Wendel told Pol Counselor on March 26
that momentum for an EU-Syria Association Agreement is "very
strong, perhaps insurmountable." Discussion at the March
27-28 Gymnich is "expected to be operational on this topic,"
Scholdtz said, adding that while no formal decision would be
taken, the decision would be "everything but official."
Asked about earlier reports indicating movement on the
agreement was not likely now (reftel),Scholdtz said that
Syria and Lebanon opened embassies in each other's capitals
mid-March, removing one of the last objections for EU Member
States. The French are pushing very hard to sign an
agreement as soon as possible, Scholdtz asserted, and "even
the British are on board" because the agreement text includes
a paragraph on non-proliferation.


3. (C) Scholdtz acknowledged USG concerns over Syrian efforts
to develop a clandestine nuclear capability, but said that
Sweden and other EU Member States still have doubts about the
extent of Syrian-North Korean nuclear cooperation. He stated
that there might still be some Member State opposition to an
association agreement related to this issue or others, but
that he had not seen any reporting to that effect. Rather,
most Member States feel it is now time for the EU to "echo"
U.S. efforts to open up relations with Damascus. The EU
anticipates that its action would have the effect of making
Iran even more isolated, Wendel added.


4. (C) Continuing on Iran, Scholdtz said that Member States
will listen carefully to presentations by the EU3 at the
Gymnich on the timetable for the roll out of the results of
the USG's Iran policy review, expected to occur "in early
April." Sweden feels it is important to bring China and
Russia into the discussion on further sanctions in order to
be credible to Tehran. But if a package of new carrots, plus
Russian and Chinese pressure, does not bring about a
cessation of enrichment, then Sweden would support
discussions within the EU on what to do next ) probably
sanctions, said Scholdtz.


5. (C) Scholdtz said that Sweden's senior officials are very
curious about Washington's new Iran policy, saying that he
understood there would be "coordination" in London in April
among the EU3, Spain, Italy, Poland, the Czech Republic and
Sweden. As incoming EU president, Sweden is very interested
in getting clear information about U.S. thinking "so that we
can play along as best we can." Wendel, one of the MFA's
Iran experts, added that he thought President Obama's speech
had been extremely effective because it was "received
directly by the Iranian people" and the politicians had no
chance to muddy the message.


6. (C) Comment: We believe the rush to this informal decision
on the EU-Syria Association Agreement is partly a reaction to
last month's senior USG visit to Damascus and a European
desire to not be left behind.
SILVERMAN