SWEDISH FINANCE MINISTER ON FINANCIAL CRISIS,

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 STOCKHOLM 000195

SENSITIVE
SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: ECON EFIN EINV ETRD PGOV EN LG LH SW
SUBJECT: SWEDISH FINANCE MINISTER ON FINANCIAL CRISIS,
SWEDISH BANKS AND THE BALTICS

REF: STATE 23758


1. (SBU) Summary: On March 16, Swedish Finance Minister
Anders Borg told Treasury DAS Meyer and CDA the following
regarding the financial crisis, Swedish banks and the Baltics:

- Swedish banks can absorb further losses given their
profitability in recent years. The Swedish financial sector
is stable.

- Sweden does not possess full knowledge of the domestic
Latvian and Lithuanian banking sectors outside the Swedish
banks' subsidiaries.

- The IMF should continue to play a leading role in the
region. Lithuania should turn to the IMF for a program.

- The EU is not a single group; some members want to help the
Baltics while others do not.

- All three Baltic states should be treated equally; Sweden
would have to support Lithuania before giving more financing
to Latvia.

- The Baltics problem is far from over, but Sweden is pleased
the U.S. is taking an active interest in the issue.

End Summary.


2. (SBU) Swedish Finance Minister Anders Borg told CDA and
Treasury DAS for Europe and Eurasia Eric Meyer on March 16
that Swedish banks have a number of domestic problems to
resolve in addition to their exposure in the Baltics, but
that the Swedish financial sector remains stable. Borg
commented that the Swedish economy contracted by nearly five
percent year on year in the fourth quarter of 2008, and that
industrial production in January 2009 was down 23 percent
from a year earlier. He stated that everything depends on
the international market and added that Swedish banks can
absorb the losses because Swedish consumers are "picking up
the bill." Borg stated that Sweden might need to set aside
large sums of money to recapitalize parent company banks,
which would then recapitalize their Baltic subsidiaries. "We
need to do more for our own banking system," Borg opined.
Earlier in the week, Borg told journalists that he expected
the current financial crisis to continue into 2010 with
"aftershocks to occur in 2011 and 2012."


3. (SBU) Borg stated that Sweden doesn't have full knowledge
of the Latvian and Lithuanian domestic banking sectors
outside of the Swedish banks' subsidiaries, adding that a
lack of transparency makes it difficult to evaluate their
domestic banking practices. He commented that Sweden might
need to provide additional financial resources if Latvia
continues to defend the Lat, but that Sweden cannot do much
more than that. He indicated that Sweden might need to
provide additional support to Lithuania. Borg said that
Sweden would need to "lean on" Brussels to help Latvia should
it need more support, rather than provide Latvia more
bilateral financing. Borg noted that the IMF's process with
Latvia was unnecessarily costly politically, which has
spilled off on Lithuania, making it reluctant to approach the
fund. Nonetheless, he said that the EU and the Nordics
believe Lithuania should turn to the IMF. Borg stated that
the IMF should continue to play a lead role in the region.
When asked about his views on an early Euro zone entry for
Latvia, Borg replied that it must be a Latvian decision
alone. Borg stated that the EU is not a single group. Some
members want to help the Baltics, while others do not. Borg
said all three Baltic states should be treated equally, but
that he is less worried about Estonia. He said that even
though Swedish banks account for 90 percent of the lending of
Estonia the country is politically stable. Borg noted that
the Baltics problem is "far from over," and that he is
"pleased that the U.S. is taking an active interest in this
issue."

Background on Swedish banks' exposure to the Baltics
-------------- --------------


4. (SBU) According to figures released by the Swedish
Financial Supervisory Authority (SFSA),Swedish banks'
lending in the Baltics amounts to $58.2 billion, including
$80 billion for Nordea, $200 billion for SEB and $220 billion
for Swedbank. Swedbank has 17 percent of its total lending
in the Baltics, followed by SEB with 12 percent and Nordea
with three percent. Swedbank's operating income fell by 41
percent in the fourth quarter of 2008 from the same period
in 2007, while SEB's dropped by 12 percent. SFSA analyst
Masih Wazdi of the Swedish Financial Supervisory Authority

STOCKHOLM 00000195 002 OF 002


stated that while the exposures are large in absolute
numbers, lending to the Baltics represents less than 10
percent of the Swedish banking sector and "does not pose a
threat to the Swedish economy as a whole."


5. Post will report Treasury DAS Meyers' additional visits
septel.


6. Treasury has cleared this cable.
SILVERMAN