NATO/VCC: GUIDANCE FOR SEPT 21 MEETING

S E C R E T SECTION 01 OF 03 STATE 097472

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 9/21/2014
TAGS: KCFE PARM PREL OSCE
SUBJECT: NATO/VCC: GUIDANCE FOR SEPT 21 MEETING

REF: (A)USNATO 316, (B)STATE 95492, (C)STATE 93327,
(D)USOSCE 198

Classified by Richard A. Davis, VCI/CCA Office Director,
for reasons 1.4(B) and (D)


1. (C) This is an action cable. U.S. goals for the
September 21 Verification Coordinating Committee (VCC)
are as follows:

--Provide U.S. reaction to the draft International Staff
(IS) VCC Experts Terms of Reference;

--If raised, provide U.S. views on Russia's Vienna
Document 1999 (VD99) inspection in Belarus;

--Provide U.S. preference for supplemental experts
meetings in support of verification activity
coordination and deconfliction;

--Provide an update on U.S. activities.


U.S.--Russian Bilateral Update
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2. (C) VCI Assistant Secretary Rose Gottemoeller met
with Russian Disarmament Director Anatoly Antonov in
Geneva on September 3, 2009, to informally explore
possibilities for a way forward on CFE. Washington
provided Allies with a preliminary readout of the
meeting in capitals soon after, and Allies received a
detailed briefing at the September 17 HLTF. If VCC
members request an update on the status of negotiations,
USDel should defer to the Chair to provide a summary of
the HLTF readout.

VCC Experts Terms of Reference
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3. (C) In response to discussions over the role of VCC
Experts, the International Staff on August 19 issued
AC/319-WP(2009)05 proposing a Terms of Reference (TOR)
for the VCC Experts Group. Washington has reviewed the
draft TOR and generally supports the paper as written.
USDel should discourage substantive changes that would
broaden the scope of the draft TOR. In addition, USDel
should offer the following clarifying points and
recommendations:

--The U.S. supports the direction the IS has taken and
offers the following recommendations for clarity:

--References--In line with para 2--"...IAW VCC
decisions:" a reference decision referring to the review
of NATO School Oberammergau POIs should be added to the
references.

--Para 3--The U.S. understands that the phrase "will
task" implies that such VCC taskings to the Experts
Group will be by consensus.

--Para 4--The U.S. understands para 4 to say that any
recommendation forwarded from the Experts Group to the
VCC must first reach consensus in the Experts Group.
For clarity, we would propose adding the phrase
"forwarded to the VCC" between "...Expert Group" and
"must..."

--Para 6--We note that it has been common practice for
Experts to meet in December for CFE allocations
regardless of whether the VCC is meeting. We propose
adding the phrase "unless otherwise agreed" to the end
of the sentence.


4. (C) If the draft TOR text receives widespread
support, USDel should not block consensus. However, if
it appears that the IS will issue a revision, USDel
should request that the new version reflect the
clarifications listed above. USDel should report any
substantive edits.


STATE 00097472 002 OF 003


Russia's VD99 Inspection in Belarus
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5. (S) On August 29 the Russian Federation sent a Vienna
Document notification (CBM/RU/09/121/F33/O) requesting
an inspection in Belarus from 1-4 September 2009,
thereby exhausting the remaining 2009 inspection quota
in Belarus. The U.S. had planned (in conjunction with
Norway) to conduct an inspection of a notified exercise
scheduled for late September. According to Belarus'
notification (CBM/BY/09/0054/F25/C),the combined
exercise, "West 2009", will involve a total of 12,529
personnel, including 6,820 from Belarus, 5,680 from
Russia and 29 from Kazakhstan. It will be the largest
exercise to be conducted in the region in many years and
will involve a level of forces just below Vienna
Document thresholds for observation (13,000 personnel,
300 battle tanks, 500 ACVs, and 250 artillery pieces).
Separately, and also in line with VD99, Belarus invited
neighboring pS (Latvia, Lithuania, Poland and Ukraine)
to observe the exercise. USOSCE has delivered points to
Russia, Belarus and Allies per Ref C.


6. (C) USDel should attempt to meet with the Norwegian
delegation before the VCC to inform reps of our general
response, including our approach to Belarus, in the
event they plan to comment on the inspection at the VCC.
As required, USDel should draw from the following as
required to respond to potential Allied questions:

--
-- A Vienna Document inspection would have allowed for a
unique opportunity to study this "West 2009" exercise.
Unfortunately, this will not be possible, due to Russia
conducting an inspection in Belarus in early September.

--Regarding Belarus' response: Belarus has correctly
notified the exercise in accordance with the provisions
of VD99. In addition, Belarus invited neighboring
countries, including three NATO members to participate
in an observation event. Finally, while the U.S.
currently does not have a military Attache accredited to
Belarus, we have received an invitation for our Attache
in Kiev (accredited to Belarus) to attend the
observation event. While we would not expect the level
of transparency provided by a one-day observation
program to approach that provided by a VD99 inspection
or a Chapter VI observation visit, it seems clear that
Belarus has made an effort to meet its VD99 obligations.

--The U.S. approached Russia and Belarus in Vienna and
encouraged them to consider providing additional
measures of transparency. Per Ref D, Belarus undertook
to convey our points of concern to Minsk for further
review. Per Ref D, Russia's JCG representative, Ulyanov
said he was unaware that Russia's inspection had
exhausted the quota for Belarus and would have to speak
to Moscow for greater clarity before writing a formal
cable back to Moscow. Ulyanov asked what type of
transparency measures the U.S. envisioned and added that
the Russian MOD had taken a dim view of voluntary
measures recently, feeling that such measures were
always one-sided.

--Regarding future allocations and scheduling: The U.S.
would be interested in hearing Allied opinions on
whether further review of allocation and deconfliction
procedures is warranted in an effort to ensure quotas
are available for conducting inspections of exercises
notified later in the year.

Update on Verification Activity
--------------

VD99:

7. (C//REL TO USA, BEL, BGR, CAN, CZE, DEU, DNK, ESP,
EST, FRA, GBR, GRC, HUN, ISL, ITA, LVA, LTU, LUX, NLD,
NOR, POL, PRT, ROU, SVK, SVN, TUR, and NATO) The United
States, with a guest inspector from Belgium, conducted a
VD99 specified area inspection in southern Turkmenistan
from 15-18 June 2009. The specified area encompassed
approximately 22,000 square kilometers and included the
cities and towns of Ashgabat, Gazandzhyk (Bereket),
Gyzylarbat (Serdar),Kaka (Kaakhka) and Tejen (Tedzhen).
The escort team provided access to the specified area in
accordance with the provisions of VD99. Briefings were

STATE 00097472 003 OF 003


provided on 23 formations and units with peacetime
locations in the specified area. Inspectors were
granted limited access to the garrisons and equipment of
these formations and units. The Turkmen escort team
provided a helicopter overflight of the specified area,
including over military garrisons, and did not restrict
photography. Inspectors did not observe field training
under way in the specified area

CFE:

8. (C//REL TO USA, BEL, BGR, CAN, CZE, DEU, DNK, ESP,
FRA, GBR, GRC, HUN, ISL, ITA, LUX, NLD, NOR, POL, PRT,
ROU, SVK, TUR and NATO) The United States, with guest
inspectors from Romania, Slovakia, and Turkey, conducted
a CFE Treaty declared site inspection of the
79th Separate Airmobile Brigade (URN S725) at Nikolayev,
Ukraine, from 20-23 July 2009.
--The inspection report included no ambiguity but
included a substantive comment regarding the presence at
the site of one R-161B HF/VHF radio station on the
chassis of the MT-LBu variant of the MT-LB APC that had
been neither notified among the holdings of the brigade
nor briefed as present;
--The brigade commander stated that the unit had
recently returned from an exercise in which the scenario
was to "re-take" Crimea from an invading force;
--Since the previous CFE inspection conducted in 2006,
the declared site had decreased in size significantly;
--The team confirmed the presence of all conventional
armaments and equipment subject to the Treaty (CAEST)
that Ukraine had reported for the brigade in its CFE
data declaration as of 1 January 2009.

9. (C//REL) The United States, with guest inspectors
from Italy, the Netherlands, and Norway, conducted a CFE
declared site inspection of the 527th Motorized Rifle
Regiment (URN AM-0600) at Vaik, Armenia, from 24-27
August 2009. The inspection report included no
ambiguity but included a substantive comment regarding
the inability of the inspection team to confirm the
regiment's holdings of artillery as reported by Armenia
in its CFE data declaration as of 1 January 2009 because
the Armenians said the artillery pieces "were deployed
to the border." Inspectors confirmed the presence of
the regiment's other holdings of TLE (13 ACVs) except
for one BMP-1 AIFV that was reported to be at the 205th
Armored Equipment Technical Maintenance Base (URN
AM-0490) at Yeghvard.

10. (C//REL) The United States, with guest inspectors
from Germany, Norway, and Poland, conducted an above
quota CFE declared site inspection of the 93rd Separate
Mechanized Brigade (URN S692) at Cherasskoye, Ukraine,
from 14-17 September 2009. (No further details at this
time)

11. (C//REL) Russia refused a request by the United
States to conduct a CFE declared site inspection from
24-27 August.

12. (C) Changes to U.S. Schedule: VD99
--U.S. to Kazakhstan will be rescheduled from calendar
week 39 to calendar week 42 (11-17 October).
--U.S. to Kyrgyzstan has been scheduled for calendar
week 43 (18-24 October).
--We have no changes to the CFE schedule.

13. (C) Preference for deconfliction meetings in
November and December: There was a question concerning
an extra day for the meetings in November and December
to allow for the allocation and deconfliction process.
If it is decided to allow an extra day during both
November and December, then our preference in November
would be Wednesday, 18 November and in December, we
would prefer Friday, 18 December.
CLINTON