SUPPORTING IRAQ IN THE LEAD-UP TO ELECTIONS

S E C R E T SECTION 01 OF 03 STATE 097443

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 09/18/2019
TAGS: IZ PGOV PREL
SUBJECT: SUPPORTING IRAQ IN THE LEAD-UP TO ELECTIONS

Classified By: NEA A/S Jeffrey Feltman for reasons 1.4 (b) and (d).


1. (U) This cable contains an action request - please see
para 8.

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SUMMARY
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2. (S) The period between now and Iraqi national elections
in January 2010 will be acutely sensitive within Iraq, both
politically and in terms of security. It is extremely
important that we weigh in with regional states on their role
during this critical time. Unfortunately, Iraq has seen an
increase in bombings and other attacks that have increased
tensions both inside Iraq and within the region. In
addition, internal Iraqi politics is leading to some
statements that will be viewed as unhelpful in the region.
Iraq's neighbors and the Arab World can play a positive or
negative role in the critical national elections. Action
addressees should use the points in paragraph 8 to highlight
Iraqi progress despite recent attacks and encourage host
governments to support the Iraqis as they prepare for
elections, but to avoid interfering. END SUMMARY

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OBJECTIVES
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3. (C) While this is a case where it is particularly true
that Posts are in the best position to gauge host
government's involvement with Iraq, we ask Posts to use the
points in paragragh 8 to make the most senior appropriate
demarche to achieve the following objectives:

--Explain that, while high-profile attacks have taken place,
the GOI continues to enjoy success in countering terrorism
and there has been no resurgence of the wide-scale sectarian
violence of past years.

--Given recent attacks designed to undermine order in Iraq,
encourage governments to take positive steps to support the
GOI to prevent sectarian violence and underline that the GOI
is frustrated with outside support for terrorist actions in
Iraq.

--Encourage governments to prevent meddling in Iraq's
elections by financing or supporting particular groups,
especially those that do not seek a stable, unified Iraq.

--Encourage governments to return their ambassadors after
Ramadan to facilitate diplomatic communications and as a
practical expression of support for a unified, sovereign
Iraq.

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BACKGROUND
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4. (C) Beginning in late July, a series of explosions
targeting political party offices, mosques, and civilian
gathering places across the country began giving rise to the
possibility of renewed sectarianism. The attacks of August
19, which resulted in by far the bloodiest day in Baghdad
since the June 30 withdrawal of U.S. forces from urban areas,
significantly escalated this tension.


5. (C) The effects of the violence have rippled throughout
the region, with GOI officials claiming that Syria and
perhaps Saudi Arabia were complicit in the attacks. As a
result, both Iraq and Syria have withdrawn their ambassadors
from the other's capital. In addition, diplomats from
Bahrain, UAE, and Kuwait, all of which were operating out of

STATE 00097443 002 OF 003


the Al-Rashid Hotel, departed Baghdad shortly after the
August 19 attacks. This was ostensibly due to the start of
Ramadan, but the haste of their departure suggested
otherwise. With Iraqi national elections approaching and
some predicting more violence, it is all too easy to envision
them not returning at all. When combined with the new
challenges that the Iraqi MFA will be facing in light of the
attacks -- no building to operate out of, loss of dozens of
staff -- these developments could have a significant impact
for some time.


6. (C) On September 1, Foreign Minister Zebari warned
Embassy Baghdad that some Arab countries in the region now
"strongly believe" that the improved political situation in
Iraq is reversible, and that some will now put their weight
behind efforts designed to strip Iraq of the political and
security gains it has made in the last two years.

7. (C) As we work with the GOI and others in Iraq to counter
sectarian violence and discourage retaliatory attacks, it
will be critical for neighboring countries to play a positive
role. Some countries, Turkey for example, are already
playing a positive role, and the goal of this demarche is to
encourage them to continue to do so. Others are playing a
neutral, or in some cases negative, role. In either case, the
Department requests addressees to encourage host governments
to maintain ties with Iraq and to support Iraqi efforts to
avoid sectarian violence in the lead-up to national elections
and thereafter. We recommend drawing upon talking points in
para 8.


8. (SBU) Begin suggested talking points:

-- An Iraq that is sovereign, stable, and self-reliant with a
government that is just, representative, and accountable is
in the best interest of the entire region.

--The U.S. remains committed to helping Iraq achieve that
goal and to implementing our bilateral Security Agreement.

--On June 30, all U.S. troops were out of Iraqi cities,
villages, and localities just as we said they would be. The
Iraqis are taking ever increasing responsibility for their
own security and the U.S. is moving to a supporting and
advisory role.

--There are still those who would sabotage the path of
progress in Iraq. The savage attacks against the Government
of Iraq on August 19, which resulted in hundreds of Iraqis
being killed or wounded, are proof of this.

--We have consistently supported the Government of Iraq in
emphasizing the role that foreign fighters and networks play
in supporting terrorism in Iraq. The GOI is extremely
frustrated with this situation and seeks to encourage
international action against those outside of Iraq who
support terrorism. We have been consistent in our support of
Iraq against outside networks. These individuals will
continue to seek to destabilize Iraq in the run up to the
national elections.

--These individuals would have you believe that law and order
has completely broken down in Iraq and the country is
returning to the violent days of 2006 and 2007. That is
simply not the case.

--Despite the high-profile attacks of August 19, overall
incidents of violence are dramatically lower than those of
the last five years.

--The communities that have been targeted recently have shown
remarkable restraint and have refused to respond with
violence. Instead, the vast majority of the Iraqi people are
relying on the political process to settle their differences
- broad participation in Provincial Elections earlier this
year is proof of this, as is the success of Kurdish regional
elections in July and the preparation for upcoming national
elections.

STATE 00097443 003 OF 003


--During his recent visit to the U.S., PM Maliki acknowledged
a legal and regulatory environment in Iraq that has served as
an obstacle to investment, but he stressed that Iraq is
taking measures to address these hurdles by putting forward
new, investor friendly legislation, especially provisions
that would allow foreign investors to own land in Iraq.

--On June 30, the Iraqi Ministry of Oil held the first bid
round for oil and gas fields in Iraq's history, further proof
that Iraq is opening in a new way to foreign investment. A
second bid round is planned for late this year.

--Iraq is preparing for 2010 national elections, which, along
with a peaceful transfer of power, are an essential component
of any democracy. The period between now and then will be
politically sensitive, as is the case in any democracy, and
there will be challenges.

-- Of course, we will be closely watching the process, just
as you will. We will not interfere in the process and we
encourage you to refrain from doing so as well.

--These elections should be free and fair and without outside
influence. The Iraqi people will decide who will govern them.

--Prime Minister Maliki is actively reaching out to the Sunni
community inside Iraq. He continues to pursue a
cross-sectarian coalition in the lead-up to national
elections. We support the idea that cross-sectarian
political alliances represent a healthy direction in which
Iraqi politics should grow.

--While we strongly support Maliki as the current head of the
Government of Iraq, we believe in free and fair elections to
choose the next prime minister.

--(As appropriate) Thank you for strengthening your own ties
with the Government of Iraq. Continued positive engagement
from states in the region will be key to achieving the goal
of a sovereign, stable, and self-reliant Iraq.

--(For those that have not sent an ambassador) We hope you
will take this opportunity to show support for Iraq by
sending an ambassador to Baghdad.

-- We hope you will continue your bilateral engagement with
Iraq during this period. If your diplomats have come home
for Ramadan, we hope they will return to Baghdad after Eid.
Having your diplomats in Baghdad, especially during this
period of transition, is essential for demonstrating your
seriousness in helping Iraq fully reintegrate into the region.

-- (As Appropriate) We understand your concern that Iran
seeks to exert disruptive influence in Iraq and in Iraqi
politics. The best way to counter such influence is clearly
to engage with the GOI and other players in Baghdad, instead
of merely worrying from a distance.

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REPORTING DEADLINE AND POINT OF CONTACT
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9. (U) Embassies should report substantive responses from
host governments by cable after the Eid holiday if at all
possible. Please contact Josh Davis at (202) 647-8169 or via
e-mail at davisjr@state.sgov.gov for any necessary further
background information or argumentation to meet our
objectives.


10. (U) Tripoli minimize considered.
CLINTON