(U) ANGOLA: PROPOSED REVISIONS TO ELECTORAL

C O N F I D E N T I A L STATE 096677

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 09/17/2034
TAGS: PINR AO
SUBJECT: (U) ANGOLA: PROPOSED REVISIONS TO ELECTORAL
SYSTEM (C-AL9-01981)

Classified By: MICHAEL P. OWENS, ACTING DIR, INR/OPS. REASON: 1.4(C).


1. (C) WASHINGTON ANALYSTS ARE INTERESTED IN THE ONGOING
CONSTITUTIONAL TALKS TAKING PLACE IN LUANDA, PARTICULARLY
REGARDING IF AND WHEN PRESIDENTIAL ELECTIONS WILL BE HELD.
PRESIDENT DOS SANTOS' RECENT ANNOUNCEMENT THAT HE WOULD
PREFER INDIRECT PRESIDENTIAL ELECTIONS THROUGH A PARTY-LIST
SYSTEM, AKIN TO THAT OF SOUTH AFRICA, SUGGESTS THAT DIRECT
PRESIDENTIAL ELECTIONS MAY NO LONGER BE ON THE AGENDA,
DESPITE EXPECTATIONS THAT THEY WOULD BE HELD WITHIN THE NEXT
FEW YEARS. AS TIME AND RESOURCES PERMIT, ANALYSTS WOULD
APPRECIATE ANY FURTHER INSIGHTS EMBASSY MIGHT BE ABLE TO
PROVIDE ON THE FOLLOWING QUESTIONS. THANK YOU.


B. (U) MIGHT POPULAR MOVEMENT FOR THE LIBERATION OF ANGOLA
(MPLA) MEMBERS CHALLENGE PRESIDENT DOS SANTOS' CALL FOR
INDIRECT ELECTIONS AND, IF SO, WHAT WOULD BE THEIR MOST
EFFECTIVE VENUE?


C. (U) HOW SIGNIFICANT IS IT THAT THE NATIONAL UNION FOR
THE TOTAL INDEPENDENCE OF ANGOLA (UNITA) HAS RECENTLY CHARGED
THE PRESIDENT AND THE RULING PARTY WITH UNDEMOCRATIC BEHAVIOR
AND AS HAVING INTEREST IN PERPETUATING A "MONARCHY"? DOES
THIS SIGNAL A KEY CHANGE IN THE PARTY'S WILLINGNESS TO WORK
WITH THE MPLA TO CRAFT A NEW CONSTITUTION?


D. (U) HOW EXACTLY WOULD DOS SANTOS' FAVORED ELECTORAL
SYSTEM WORK, AND HOW DOES IT RESEMBLE AND DIFFER FROM THE
SOUTH AFRICAN ELECTORAL SYSTEM?


E. (U) TO WHAT EXTENT HAS THE PRESS BEEN FREE TO REPORT ON
THE OPPOSITION'S POSITIONS VIS-A-VIS THIS CONTROVERSY?


F. (U) WILL THIS SYSTEM DISADVANTAGE INDEPENDENT CANDIDATES
AND, IF SO, HOW MIGHT UNITA'S CHIVUKUVUKA BE AFFECTED?


2. (U) PLEASE CITE C-AL9-01981 IN THE SUBJECT LINE OF
REPORTING IN RESPONSE TO THE ABOVE QUESTIONS.
CLINTON