HLTF: GUIDANCE FOR JULY 9 MEETING

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 STATE 070159

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 04/21/2014
TAGS: KCFE PARM PREL
SUBJECT: HLTF: GUIDANCE FOR JULY 9 MEETING

REF: A) STATE 59424 (Geneva Bilat on CFE); B) BERLIN 755
(High Level Meeting on Arms Control); C) USOSCE 151
(ASRC Session II)

Classified by Rich Davis, VCI/CCA Office Director, for
reasons 1.4 (b) and (d).


1. (C) The July 9 High Level Task Force (HLTF) meeting
will take place following the June 10 Berlin high level
meeting on "The Future of Conventional Arms Control in
Europe," the June 24-25 OSCE Annual Security Review
Conference, the June 27-28 "Informal" OSCE Ministerial
on European security, and on the heels of the U.S.-
Russia Presidential Summit. Allies will be interested
in reviewing outcomes of this series of senior level
meetings, receiving an update on the status of U.S.-
Russia bilateral discussions on CFE, and discussing next
steps on CFE as preparations begin for fall NATO and
OSCE Ministerials.

U.S. goals for the July 9 HLTF and related meetings are
to:

-- reinforce that Allies have been effective in
delivering a unified, consistent message on CFE and more
broadly on European security;

-- update Allies on the status of U.S.-Russian bilateral
discussions;

-- gauge Allied reactions to recent senior level
meetings and seek Allied views and assessments for
managing CFE in the upcoming months while maintaining
Allied unity; and

-- coordinate with the Baltic states to plan for annual
U.S.-Baltic arms control consultations which will be
hosted by Estonia in September.

CONTACTS and BILATERALS.


2. (C) While CFE is not on the agenda for the upcoming
U.S.-Russia Summit, Allies will be interested in a
readout of any CFE-related discussions. Team may also
review Assistant Secretary Gottemoeller's June 3 meeting
in Geneva with Russian Security and Disarmament Director
Antonov as well as the June 11 Roundtable on European
Security with Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Grushko
during his D.C. visit. U.S. rep may draw from Reftel A
for details of the Gottemoeller/Antonov June 3 CFE
discussions with experts and share the following:

-- On June 3 Assistant Secretary Gottemoeller and MFA
Director Antonov met on CFE in Geneva; Allies were
briefed on the meeting on June 5 in Vienna (and via
cable to capitals) prior to the Berlin high level
meeting. As this was the first U.S-Russia interagency
team meeting in 2009 on CFE, it had an introductory
character. The discussion - which was based on the
parallel actions package and Russia's recent aide
memoire on CFE - focused on some of the key elements:
possible provisional application of CFE, the flank
regime, Moldova, and Georgia. A/S Gottemoeller raised,
but there was no time to explore, the conditions under
which Russia would resume implementation of CFE. Much
like at the June 9 Allied meeting with Russia in Berlin,
Russia did not elaborate on any of the ideas in its aide
memoire. Antonov did tell Gottemoeller that the Russian
government wants to preserve CFE, and both agreed on the
importance of the U.S.-Russia bilateral process to
finding a way forward. Antonov also responded that the
proposals on Georgia presented to him by former A/S
Fried in December 2008 were not acceptable to Russia.
A/S Gottemoeller and MFA Director Antonov continue to
meet frequently on START issues, during which they will
be able to follow up on the question of future bilateral
meetings on CFE. We will continue to keep Allies
informed, and consult on next steps.

-- On June 11 in Washington a U.S. team met with Russian
Deputy Foreign Minister Grushko for an informal
discussion on European security in preparation for
Corfu; the broad themes were those that FM Lavrov
expressed at both the ASRC and at the "informal" OSCE
Ministerial. On CFE, Grushko stressed it should be

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worked separately, and he emphasized familiar themes
such as the need to both revive CFE and modernize it by
accounting for NATO enlargement and eliminating the
flank for Russia. Without elaborating, he suggested
regional and bilateral transparency measures could serve
as a way to address key CFE issues without universal
mechanisms, norms and legal terms. He looked to recent
U.S.-Russia bilateral discussions and the Russian aide
memoire as positive momentum.

WAY AHEAD: RECENT MEETINGS AND NEXT STEPS


3. (C) Recent senior level meetings (June 10 Berlin
high level meeting on "The Future of Conventional Arms
Control in Europe," the June 24-25 OSCE Annual Security
Review Conference, and the June 27-28 "Informal" OSCE
Ministerial on European security) have clearly
demonstrated a broad convergence of views among most
OSCE participating States and among NATO Allies on
European security and CFE that were expressed at
Strasbourg-Kehl. Although the meetings across the
spectrum have served primarily as platforms for dialogue
with little concrete movement, the "Corfu process" will
continue throughout the fall in the OSCE. Allies may
want to discuss how efforts to resolve the CFE impasse
will fit into this dialogue as the process evolves.
U.S. rep should draw from the following to reinforce
U.S. messages from Berlin and Corfu, which received
broad support, and seek Allied reactions to recent
meetings and their views on managing CFE in the upcoming
months:

-- As discussion in Corfu confirmed, we should be
prepared to continue engagement through a constructive
dialogue on European security and look forward to
further discussions in the fall as we explore each of
the three interrelated dimensions of security.

-- We must stay on message on core points: the OSCE's
principles remain sound, its three-pillar comprehensive
approach (political-military, economic, and human
dimensions) is the right one.

-- We think the existing security institutions have done
a good job, but we remain open to ideas to improve their
work. For example, it would be useful to consider
whether we can better respond to crises such as the
Russia-Georgia conflict in August 2008 and to better
promote settlement of the protracted conflicts. But the
recent termination of the UN and OSCE missions in
Georgia is not a failure of the institutions we have but
a failure to use those institutions for the purposes
they serve.

-- This dialogue must include a discussion of existing
commitments and institutions and a review of how well we
are using these institutions and fulfilling our
commitments. Trust and confidence are critical to
cooperative security. We must continue to reinforce
with Russia that positive steps on CFE and Georgia would
help to restore trust among OSCE participating States.
Frankly, it is difficult to have a discussion on
improving European security or building new architecture
when Russia's actions at times appear to undermine the
institutions we have.

-- We will also need to find a way forward on CFE,
discussions about which are on a separate track, while
nevertheless related to this broader effort. Russia's
continuing suspension of implementation of CFE raises
serious concerns about its readiness to meet legal and
political obligations, a requirement FM Lavrov stressed
in the NRC.

-- Recent discussions demonstrate clear agreement that
CFE has made a major contribution to European security
and stability. Allies remain ready to work with Russia
to find a solution to overcome the current impasse that
enhances overall security and stability in Europe and
maintains fundamental principles, e.g., territorial
integrity, host nation consent to the presence of
foreign military forces, and meeting obligations.

-- While the series of recent meetings have enabled
Allies to send a consistent and unified message
regarding CFE and European security more broadly, we
must not lose sight of the need to focus on addressing
core issues as we seek to resolve CFE. Intensified
dialogue with Russia could serve that aim, but broader

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meetings that tend more toward process than progress on
substance could become significant distracters.

-- In moving ahead, it would be beneficial to assess
recent events to include the U.S.-Russia Summit and
coordinate our approach as we plan for the fall. We are
very interested in Allies' views on the current state of
play and how it will impact the next few months.


4. (SBU) U.S. rep should update the HLTF, as
appropriate, on any discussions between A/S Gottemoeller
and Director Antonov on the margins of the summit
concerning future bilateral contacts on CFE.

BALTIC CONSULTATIONS


5. (SBU) The U.S. HLTF delegation conducts annual CFE-
related consultations with Estonian, Latvian and
Lithuanian counterparts to seek their views on current
arms control issues and provide an opportunity to engage
with U.S. CFE experts. Estonia will serve as the host
for 2009 consultations, which we expect will be held in
September in conjunction with the next HLTF meeting.
U.S. delegation should follow up on coordination that
was initiated in Berlin to finalize dates, based on the
dates agreed for the September HLTF and seek input
regarding the agenda. Last year's agenda focused on the
CFE impasse and prospects for future discussions,
Russia's FSC proposals for new arms control measures and
Russia's European security agreement proposal.
Discussions also included an informal presentation of
the security situation in the Baltic region, as well as
a DOD update on the current status of bilateral mil-mil
engagement on defense planning.

DATE OF NEXT HLTF MEETING


6. (SBU) The U.S. delegation should indicate that the
coming weeks would best be used to assess recent events
as they pertain to CFE and delegation should propose
that the HLTF meet next in mid-September (preferably
around Sep 17, as USNATO has warned of expected hotel
room shortages in Brussels the weeks before and after.)
CLINTON