(C/NF) SHIA OPPOSITION IN BAHRAIN (C-NE9-01290)

S E C R E T STATE 067067

NOFORN
SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 06/26/2034
TAGS: PINR BA
SUBJECT: (C/NF) SHIA OPPOSITION IN BAHRAIN (C-NE9-01290)

Classified By: SUZANNE MCCORMICK, DIR., INR/OPS. REASON: 1.4(C).


1. (S/NF) WASHINGTON ANALYSTS APPRECIATE PAST REPORTING ON
BAHRAIN AND ARE CURRENTLY MONITORING INFORMATION RELATED TO
THE SHIA OPPOSITION IN BAHRAIN, WITHIN AND OUTSIDE THE
POLITICAL SYSTEM. ANALYSTS WOULD GREATLY APPRECIATE ANY
REPORTING ON THE FOLLOWING ISSUES AND QUESTIONS, AS TIME AND
RESOURCES PERMIT. MANY THANKS, AND REGARDS FROM WASHINGTON.


A. (S/NF) WITH THE NEXT COUNCIL OF REPRESENTATIVES (COR)
ELECTION A LITTLE OVER A YEAR AWAY, WHERE DOES WIFAQ PLAN TO
GO FROM HERE? WHAT STEPS IS THE GROUP TAKING TO ADDRESS SHIA
CONSTITUENTS' KEY ISSUES, SUCH AS AMENDING THE 2002
CONSTITUTION, ELECTORAL REDISTRICTING, POLITICAL
NATURALIZATION, AND UNEMPLOYMENT? IS WIFAQ CONSIDERING TAKING
STEPS OUTSIDE THE POLITICAL SYSTEM, SUCH AS WITHDRAWING FROM
THE COR AND RESUMING COMMAND OF STREET PROTESTS?


B. (S/NF) WHAT IS THE VIEW OF WIFAQ AND MORE HARDLINE SHIA
GROUPS, SUCH AS HAQQ, ON THE CURRENT STATE OF RELATIONS WITH
KING HAMAD, PRIME MINISTER KHALIFA, CROWN PRINCE SALMAN,
INTERIOR MINISTER RASHID BIN ABDALLAH, AND DIRECTOR OF
BAHRAIN'S NATIONAL SECURITY AGENCY KHALIFA BIN ABDALLAH?


C. (S/NF) WHAT IS THE WIFAQ PERCEPTION OF A POSSIBLE FUTURE
RECONCILIATION OR ALLIANCE WITH HAQQ? IS THERE ANY INDICATION
THAT HAQQ MIGHT MOVE TOWARD ENTERING THE POLITICAL SYSTEM?
WHAT IS THE OFFICIAL MEMBERSHIP MAKEUP OF HAQQ (HOW MANY
MEMBERS, PERCENTAGE OF NON-SHIA MEMBERS)?


D. (S/NF) HOW MANY MEMBERS BELONG TO WIFAQ? HAS THAT NUMBER
GROWN OR DECREASED SINCE WIFAQ JOINED THE COR? WHAT IS THE
BREAKDOWN WITHIN WIFAQ (BOTH THE SHURA COUNCIL AND THE COR
MEMBERS) OF CLERICS VERSUS TECHNOCRATS? DO THEY HAVE
DIFFERENT POLICY GOALS? WHAT INFLUENCE DOES BAHRAINI SHIA
CLERIC ISA AHMAD QASIM HAVE OVER ALI SALMAN, THE LEADER OF
WIFAQ, AND WIFAQ ITSELF?


E. (S/NF) WE HAVE RECENTLY SEEN REPORTING REFERING TO A NEW
SHIA OPPOSITION MOVEMENT AND ITS LEADER ABD AL-WAHAB HUSAYN.
HOW DEVELOPED IS THIS OPPOSITION GROUP? HAVE PEOPLE STOPPED
SUPPORTING WIFAQ OR HAQQ TO BACK THIS GROUP, OR ARE THEY
DRAWING FROM PREVIOUSLY INDEPENDENT BAHRAINI SHIA? WHAT ARE
THIS GROUP'S GOALS AND OVERALL STRATEGY?


2. (U) PLEASE CITE C-NE9-01290 IN THE SUBJECT LINE OF
REPORTING IN RESPONSE TO THE ABOVE QUESTIONS.
CLINTON