(U) IRAN: REACTION OF IRGC LEADERSHIP TO PROTEST

S E C R E T STATE 065908


NOFORN
PLEASE PASS TO IRPO

E.O. 12958: DECL: 06/25/2034
TAGS: PINR PINS IR
SUBJECT: (U) IRAN: REACTION OF IRGC LEADERSHIP TO PROTEST
CRACKDOWN (C-ME9-01435)

REF: A. ANKARA 000878

B. BAKU 000508

C. BERLIN 000751

D. ASHGABAT 733

Classified By: SUZANNE MCCORMICK, DIR., INR/OPS. REASON: 1.4(C).


1. (S/NF) WASHINGTON ANALYSTS GREATLY APPRECIATE THE VERY
INFORMATIVE AND USEFUL REPORTING POSTS HAVE PROVIDED IN THE
AFTERMATH OF THE 12 JUNE IRANIAN PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION, THANK
YOU VERY MUCH FOR THE HARD WORK AND VALUABLE INSIGHTS.
ANALYSTS ARE MONITORING INTERACTIONS AND RELATIONS AMONG
SENIOR IRGC LEADERSHIP AND THEIR RESPONSES TO A CRACKDOWN ON
IRANIAN PROTESTERS AND ARE INTERESTED IN ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION ON COHESION WITHIN IRGC. AS TIME AND RESOURCES
PERMIT, ANALYSTS WOULD WELCOME ANY INSIGHT REGARDING
POTENTIAL FISSURES IN THE IRGC SENIOR LEADERSHIP AND WHAT
THOSE RAMIFICATIONS MIGHT BE FOR FUTURE PROTESTS, THE SUPREME
LEADER, AND AHMADI-NEJAD. MANY THANKS, AND REGARDS FROM
WASHINGTON.


A. (S/NF) IS THE IRGC SENIOR OFFICER CORPS FACTIONALIZED
OVER THE REELECTION OF AHMADI-NEJAD AND/OR HOW TO HANDLE THE
PROTESTS THAT HAVE EMERGED SINCE THE 12 JUNE ELECTION?

1) (S/NF) IF SO, HAS AHMADI-NEJAD CONTRIBUTED TO ANY
FACTIONALIZATION? WHAT ARE THE MOST CONTENTIOUS ISSUES THAT
ARE CAUSING IRGC SENIOR COMMANDERS TO FACTIONALIZE?

2) (S/NF) IF SO, WHO ARE THE FIGURES/PEOPLE/OFFICERS/FORMER
OFFICERS/OTHER IRGC SENIOR MEMBERS COALESCING AROUND OR
ALTERNATIVELY, WHAT OFFICERS ARE COURTING OTHER IRGC OFFICERS
INTO THEIR CAMPS (I.E, SAFAVI, MOHSEN REZAI, QALIBAF, JAFARI,
ZOLQADR, HEJAZI, MORTEZA REZAI, SOLEIMANI)?


B. (S/NF) ARE THERE ANY EXAMPLES OF IRGC SENIOR LEADERSHIP
DISOBEYING THE SUPREME LEADER OVER HIS SUPPORT OF
AHMADI-NEJAD'S REELECTION? IF SO, WHO AMONG THE GUARD IS
DOING THIS? WHO ARE THEY LISTENING TO FOR ORDERS INSTEAD?
WHAT SORTS OF ORDERS ARE THEY DISOBEYING/IGNORING FROM THE
LEADER?

1) (S/NF) WHAT IS THE IRGC COMMANDER JAFARI'S PLAN IF THE
SUPREME LEADER ORDERED A CRACKDOWN ON PROTESTERS? WILL HE
FOLLOW THE LEADER'S ORDER?

2) (S/NF) WILL IRGC MID-GRADE OFFICERS FOLLOW JAFARI'S
ORDER IF HE ORDERS A CRACKDOWN ON PROTESTERS? WILL IRGC
RANK-AND-FILE MEMBERS FOLLOW ORDERS TO CRACK DOWN ON
PROTESTERS? WOULD THEY CRACK DOWN ON VIOLENT PROTESTERS, ON
PEACEFUL PROTESTERS IF ORDERED TO DO SO, OR STAND BY?


C. (S/NF) ARE THERE OTHER IRGC COMMANDERS IN SENIOR GUARD
LEADERSHIP CIRCLES THAT WOULD UNDERMINE AN ORDER BY KHAMENEI
OR JAFARI TO USE HARSH MEASURES AGAINST PROTESTERS?


D. (S/NF) ARE THERE ALLIANCES FORMING AMONG IRGC SENIOR
OFFICERS AND POLITICIANS? ARE THERE ALLIANCES FORMING
BETWEEN IRGC SENIOR OFFICERS AND ANTI-AHMADI-NEJAD CLERICS?


E. (S/NF) ARE SENIOR IRGC COMMANDERS RESIGNING OR RETIRING
SUDDENLY? IF SO, WHO?


F. (S/NF) ARE SENIOR IRGC COMMANDERS ENGAGING IN POLITICAL
FACTIONAL DEBATES IN SENIOR REGIME CIRCLES? WHAT IS THEIR
POSITION VIS-A-VIS AHMADI-NEJAD, KHAMENEI, RAFSANJANI?


2. (U) PLEASE CITE C-ME9-01435 IN THE SUBJECT LINE OF
REPORTING IN RESPONSE TO THE ABOVE QUESTIONS.


CLINTON